What did malthus predict about the human population

Lab 10: Follow the instructions and complete the assignment below. Submit your answers through the Lab 10 Assignment on Blackboard.

Lab 10 1

Lab 10 In this week’s lab, you will apply what you’ve learned in this course to human population growth, in two different ways. Exercise 1: What do Darwin, Malthus, and Thanos* have in common? They all disagree with Captain America. *Every effort was made in writing this to avoid spoilers. Humans are a phenomenally successful species. There are more than 7 billion people alive today and we add 80 million people to the total each year, because birth rates greatly exceed death rates. But as we are learning this week in population ecology, we all need food, resources, and space, just like all other species. Because of these limits to perpetual population growth, we may become victims of our own success. This, we know for certain: human population growth cannot continue forever at the current rate. As is the case for every other species, our environment has a carrying capacity beyond which the population cannot be maintained indefinitely. Today, our question isn’t as simple as “how high can it go”, it is “what happens when we get there”? Along that same vein, we can also ask how much do we want to sacrifice to enable a larger number to live stably on the planet? Is our goal to maximize the number? Or to reduce the number and increase the resources available to each person? Or should our goal be something else entirely? Interestingly, people have been debating this moral dilemma for many years. In 1798, Thomas Malthus published his infamous book: An Essay on the Principles of Population; the same text that inspired Darwin at the time he developed the concept of natural selection. In his essay, Malthus speculated that human populations would double every 25 years unless they were kept in check by limits in the food supply. Malthus speculated that unless regulated the human population would grow to such an extent that would bring about famine and starvation, and worse. Some excerpts from Malthus’ work are below: “The constant effort towards population... increases the number of people before the means of subsistence are increased. The food therefore which before supported seven millions must now be divided among seven millions and a half or eight millions. The poor consequently must live much worse, and many of them be reduced to severe distress”. — Malthus T.R. 1798. An Essay on the Principle of Population. Chapter II, p 19 in Oxford World's Classics reprint.

"It does not... by any means seem impossible that by an attention to breed, a certain degree of improvement, similar to that among animals, might take place among men. Whether intellect could be communicated may be a matter of doubt; but size, strength, beauty, complexion, and perhaps longevity are in a degree transmissible... As the human race, however, could not be improved in this way without condemning all the bad specimens to celibacy, it is not probable

Lab 10: Follow the instructions and complete the assignment below. Submit your answers through the Lab 10 Assignment on Blackboard.

Lab 10 2

that an attention to breed should ever become general".— Malthus T.R. 1798. An Essay on the Principle of Population. Chapter IX, p 72

In sum Malthus argued, if society relied on human misery to limit population growth, then sources of misery (e.g., hunger, disease, and war, termed by Malthus "positive checks on population") would inevitably afflict society, as would volatile economic cycles. On the other hand, "preventive checks" to population that limited birthrates, such as later marriages, could ensure a higher standard of living for all, while also increasing economic stability Malthus’ writings were motivating to more than just Darwin, however. Advocates of Malthusian ideals have popped up in both history and fantasy alike. For example, in 1834, lawmakers in Britain change the law to not give to the poor “based on Malthusian reasoning that helping the poor only encourages them to have more children and thereby exacerbate poverty”. This same reasoning was used by some British politicians in the 1840s to justify not giving food aid to the Irish during the potato famine. More recently, the motives of a super-“villain” named Thanos (see image) seem to fall right in line with Malthusian logic. This is perfectly illustrated in the 2018 Marvel movie, Avengers: Infinity War, where Thanos conflicts with Captain America and the Avengers (and the Guardians of the Galaxy as well). Thanos argues that his plan to eliminate half the “humans” (and alien/human-like beings, but they kind of gloss over that in the movie) in existence supports the greater good. He sees (and despises) the effects of overpopulation leading to limited resources- poverty, sickness, and exploitation of the less fortunate. Thanos repeatedly talks about bringing “balance” back to the universe, and from his perspective decreasing the “human” population by half (through random elimination; no preferential treatment or selection) will do that. With less people around, there will be less competition for resources, and thus, more resources to go around. The end result will be, the most good (happiness, well-being, utility, what have you) for the most (surviving) individuals. For Thanos and his application of the Malthusian perspective, the greater good, not the individual, is the primary moral consideration. On the other side of this argument, you have Captain America, advocating his “not trading lives” perspective, claiming that every human is an end in themselves, a basic moral entity, deserving of basic moral consideration, not a means to an end- no matter how “good” that end may be. Interestingly, in the movie, nobody ever really argues with Thanos. When he lays out his plan to Gamora (his daughter), she just replies, “You’re insane.” But is he being irrational*? *When thinking about this topic, it is important that we identify and separate rationality and ethics.

Lab 10: Follow the instructions and complete the assignment below. Submit your answers through the Lab 10 Assignment on Blackboard.

Lab 10 3

In the rest of this exercise, we will apply what we just learned about Thanos and his Malthusian principles, to what already know about populations, evolution, and human impact. Now, answer the following questions: 1. For this question, consider the following: if Thanos was successful (hypothetically, of course) among other disastrous effects, there could be major unforeseen complications that arise from such a big change in genetic composition of the human population. Discuss the potential implications that this action would have on the gene pool (consider alleles and genetic variation) within the human population. Predict some potential outcomes of this (what could happen?). Could this action, in and of itself be considered a mechanism of evolution? Why/why not. 2. Consider Malthus’ prediction that the human population would “double every 25 years unless kept in check by limits in the food supply”. What type of population growth is he describing when he says “double every 25 years”? What type of population growth is he predicting will when he refers to “limits” “checking” the population? Explain your answers for each, including what kind of factors are doing the “limiting” in this case (are they related to density? Why/why not?). 3. Even though they didn’t use the “sciencey” terms, Thanos and Malthus (and even Darwin to some extent) demonstrate a pretty good understanding of population ecology, and the repercussions of overpopulation/human impact. They recognize the idea of Carrying Capacity, and it seems as if they even recognize the concept of Maximum Sustainable Yield. Discuss how Thanos’ application of Malthusian principles relates to Maximum Sustainable Yield. Be sure to demonstrate understanding of the key terms we used in class to discuss these topics. 4. Consider Malthus’ statement: "It does not... by any means seem impossible that by an attention to breed, a certain degree of improvement, similar to that among animals, might take place among men. Whether intellect could be communicated may be a matter of doubt; but size, strength, beauty, complexion, and perhaps longevity are in a degree transmissible... As the human race, however, could not be improved in this way without condemning all the bad specimens to celibacy, it is not probable that an attention to breed should ever become general". — Malthus T.R. 1798. An Essay on the Principle of Population. Chapter IX, p 72 First, it is important to acknowledge that Malthus clearly recognizes that “selective breeding” individuals is not a realistic solution to this situation. That being said, and considering the time in which he wrote this passage (well before Darwin and Mendel), Malthus touches on some remarkable things that are much ahead of his time; as we saw earlier this semester, it this essay that ignited the spark of Darwin’s concept of Natural Selection. Discuss what Malthus is saying here that may have caught Darwin’s attention. What do you see here that stands out in terms of what made sense to Darwin, and what may have confirmed some of his underlying ideas and further inspired him (Darwin).

Lab 10: Follow the instructions and complete the assignment below. Submit your answers through the Lab 10 Assignment on Blackboard.

Lab 10 4

5. Consider Malthus’ statement: "It does not... by any means seem impossible that by an attention to breed, a certain degree of improvement, similar to that among animals, might take place among men. Whether intellect could be communicated may be a matter of doubt; but size, strength, beauty, complexion, and perhaps longevity are in a degree transmissible... As the human race, however, could not be improved in this way without condemning all the bad specimens to celibacy, it is not probable that an attention to breed should ever become general". — Malthus T.R. 1798. An Essay on the Principle of Population. Chapter IX, p 72 First, it is important to acknowledge that Malthus clearly recognizes that “selective breeding” individuals is not a realistic solution to this situation. That being said, and considering the time in which he wrote this passage (well before Darwin and Mendel), Malthus touches on some remarkable things that are much ahead of his time. If Gregor Mendel were to have read Malthus’ essay, particularly this passage, what do you think would have stood out/made sense to him? What do you see here that relates to Mendel and his work? How do you think Mendel would have responded to Malthus’ statement (focus on this particular excerpt in your answer). 6. Consider both Thanos and Captain America’s perspective. Who do you side with; explain your logic and conclusions (be honest, this is a judgement free place, just make sure you explain your position with reason and understanding of our course content)?

7. If you were introduced to Malthus (or Thanos if you would rather talk with him) right this minute, what would you say to him? What would you ask him/what would you want to know? Be specific, and be sure to include why you’d say/want to know these things. Exercise 2: Activity on Hans Rosling’s population growth graphics In this exercise, we will explore two talks from a very famous statistician, Hans Rosling. He became famous through Ted Talks by the amazing way he managed to use data and infographics to display complex database, and specifically database about human population growth. We’ll watch here the first talk that made him famous, and one of his latest talks before he passed away a couple of years ago. A. Watch the following Ted Talk about population growth statistics, given in 2006; take some notes during the talk!

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVimVzgtD6w B. Here is one of the latest Hans Rosling talks on the same topic, given in 2015. Watch the talk, and take some notes:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=11&v=2LyzBoHo5EI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hVimVzgtD6w
https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=11&v=2LyzBoHo5EI
Lab 10: Follow the instructions and complete the assignment below. Submit your answers through the Lab 10 Assignment on Blackboard.

Lab 10 5

Now that you’ve watched both talks, answer the following questions: 8. What was the main take-home messages of the 2006 talk by Hans Rosling? Present them in your own words 9. What were the main take-home messages of the 2015 talk by Hans Rosling? Present them in your own words 10. Compare and contrast the two talks you watched: how were they similar? How were they different? Do you think one was more effective than the other in driving its main points home? Did you like one talk more than the other? Justify your choice. 11. Hans Rosling states that “it seems you can move much faster [on the economic scale] if you [as a country] get healthy first, rather than wealthy first”. What do you think is responsible for this pattern in the data? Why do you think this is the case? Explain your reasoning. 12. Pull out 2 quotes from each talk that resonated with you, and present them here, explaining why these quotes resonated for you. 13. In both talks, Hans Rosling presents a number of misconceptions we typically have about population growth. Pick 2 such misconceptions, present them briefly, and explain how Hans Rosling addressed both misconceptions 14. What was the role of data in both talks? Explain your answer, and use specific examples as part of your answer. 15. What was the role of infographics in both talks? Explain your answer, and use specific examples as part of your answer.