Moscow and Ankara are moving closer, and Ankara is getting farther away from its partnered Western countries on Syria, and disputes like Venezuela and Iran are discomforting Washington. Meanwhile, S-400 dispute has become a broader trend and also the latest episode. This dispute over S-400 has drawn incredible attention. However, it involves the selling of the latest anti-missile system by Moscow to a member state of NATO. A fundamental question has also been raised by this transaction about perceptions of Ankara of who its adversaries and allies are.

              Following the Turkish-Russian relationship crisis, after Turkey shot down a fighter jet of Russia in November 2015 around the Turkey-Syrian border, a rapprochement started in late June 2016 between the two countries. Subsequently, bilateral ties entered a new era where regional affairs topped the agenda, specifically the issue of Syria. Complicated problems of the region, such as the Kurdish question, terrorism, growing role of Iran in the Middle East, fragile statehood of Iraq, nuclear program of Iran, energy reserves in the Eastern Mediterranean basin, and the Israel-Palestine conflict have all become aspects in a multidimensional relationship between Moscow and Ankara. Importantly, long ignored defense and security sectors have emerged as a main focus for bilateral cooperation as well.

                Both at the elite and the mass level, Turkey’s once strong pro-Western sentiment is waning. This internal restructure emerged during JDP (Justice and Development Party Turkey) managing with Russia nourishes anti-western sentiment and is growing. To justify this divergent, Turkey as unitary actor, has the right to have an independent foreign policy. Turkey is an independent state but equally deserves self- respect in the international arena. The geopolitical, geostrategic, and geo-economic challenges force Turkey to refashion the foreign policy and search new alliances outside of 80 years long of marriage with the west. According to policymakers of Turkey, this search and reconstruction of foreign policy is not derailment, abandonment, or shift, but it is a pragmatic need and a national interest. Turkey’s main argument that Iran, Syria, and Greece obtain state of the art missile do securitize the region, so Turkey must compete and launch new development and research in the defense industry. 

                The delivery of F-35 jet is accepted by Turkey and that is the reason why it is still a member of NATO. Due to it, Turkey was warned by the US regarding the fact that with the delivery of missiles to Turkey, it will be dangerous for the nation to purchase F-35. However, there is still a possibility of permission (Gurcan, 2016). So, when examining the main aim of the relationship between the West and Turkey, especially the US, the current situation is way beyond the notion of “If Turkey is drifting away from the West.” As it is crystal clear that Turkey has already adapted an ideological “distance” from the West and a geographical “proximity” towards Russia. That is to say; Turkey is no longer a pro-western country. Especially, after July 15, 2016, mysterious coup attempt, Turkey has withdrawn into searching a new state identity; Turkey Eurasian (Shanghai 5) foreign affairs’ orientation. Moreover, Western orientation and sentiment in Turkey are in critical condition as demonstrated in recent reliable poll 2019 by academicians from Kadir Has University^[i].

Political Identity, Eurasianism of Russia, Turkey, and the United States the current situation

                European countries, NATO, and the United States all have come to erode the legitimacy of Iraqi and Syrian borders of Turkey, withholding support for the fight of the country against terrorism. Ankara needs to adopt and follow its strategic vision since allies no longer care about security concerns of Turkey, Ankara needs to rely on its strength and power. After the decision of the US, the Eurasianist wave become extremely noticeable, they don’t want to discuss different aspects with them, and that gained institutional depth. But it can be seen that after the action of America, the condition and vision of Eurasianist changed a lot. For understanding this point, there is a need for Erdogan’s strategic foreign policy. Due to these policies from America, the Eurasianist set their basic assumptions. This is because they wanted to improve their geo-economic terms (Gurcan, 2017). The perspective of Eurasianist has four distinct variants, i.e. Pro-Russian Eurasianism, Pan-Turkic Eurasianism, Islamist Eurasianism, and Erdoganist Eurasianism.

                This fraction between Turkey and the West push Turkey to navigate a foreign policy, mainly in ambivalence and elusive over the past decade. Just in recent years, Turkey’s strategic culture and national identity were both considered and defined traditional NATO-centric geostrategic orientations and EU- inclined geo-economic and geopolitical orientations. Now, Turkey’s leaving NATO and EU candidacy cards are discussed in Ankara among policymakers. The state-level of analysis is in parallel with the individual level of analysis; Turkey believes that it is high time to rebalance its relations with the US. Turkey and Russian relationship though seems more “leader to leader oriented” than national interests of Turkey, more benefiting Russia than Turkey. So, many scholars and experts believe that as long as President Recep Tayyip Erdogan is in power, there will be no compromise and tone down diplomacy towards the United States as state behavior turns into a sole steering administration and dominant around individuals.

                Thus, Ankara seems unwilling to provide pro-Western sentiments stronger in all Turkey and the leadership of Turkey intensified and benefitted for the upper hand in internal politics.  It can be seen that Turkey is converted into New Turkey and its motto will be like “Yerli ve Milli Turkiye” that is also called ‘local and national turkey’ in English. According to this motto, they also constitute the new theme and also a new presidential system in Turkey that selected Tayyip Erdogan as the main person for the decision-making process. He is the only power source in Turkey and according to an important state bureaucrat in Ankara, the man “who saved both the state and the nation on the night of the July 15, 2016, military uprising.” If one aims to make sense of Turkey’s domestic and foreign policy shifts, the codes of the “New Turkey” should be read carefully through the lens of the Arab Spring outside Turkey and Erdogan’s culmination of one-man rule in Turkey.

Turkey’s Russian Rapprochement, Historical advantages for Russia

            In the past couple of months, it long endured relationship in its ebb and flow but this time it has gone from ‘bad’ to ‘worse’ in S400 vs. F35 Conundrum that symbolizes current state of Turkey that is getting stuck between the Western security block and Russia. The US senior military officials leaked to media that Turkey would get out of F35 consortium if Ankara’s not giving up the dream of procuring the S400s.

            The government members of the USA reported that the USA would not support to deliver F-35 jet technology to Turkey in the future. Therefore, no proper decision has been taken by the USA and exclude Turkey from this F-35 technology. This means that turkey will no longer part of NATO, and it will be a huge blow and will restrict the relationship between Turkey and America. In following days, a draft that might initiate the whole process of Turkey’s getting out of F35 project has been passed to the US Congress, and with this move, the ‘massive blow’ is in the making.

                Seeing those severe steps taken by Washington DC, Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov, who had been postponing his trip to Ankara for almost two weeks despite Ankara’s call, suddenly visited Ankara;

To check if or not Ankara is still decisive to procure of S400s despite DC’s recent moves.

To assure/comfort Ankara that Kremlin is on her side and support Turkey if necessary.

            During the Lavrov-Cavusoglu press conference, Cavusoglu reiterated one more time that Turkey’s purchase of S400s is a ‘done deal.’ Cavusoglu also emphasized the first time that Ankara has ruled out the possibility of transferring S-400s to a second country once purchased from Russia. This is a further blow to the US because some people in Ankara and DC were speculating this option (transfer of S400s to a third country like Qatar) as a solution to end the S-400 crisis.

There are two important arguments has been presented by Ankara for justifying to buy a missile from Russia rather than the USA

Their government says that America is unwilling to give this technology to Turkey from Russia because they think that technology will be transfer to Turkey.

Turkey doesn’t want its military technology because it will tie them to their western partners.

            Then after this, the main question is about F-35 that the US army is going to give it to Turkey. For the past few decades, the American and also some other countries that are part of NATO are ordering new aircraft for maintaining safety and integrity. Due to this issue, Russia has put an electronic signature on its S400 radars that are a no-go for NATO. On the other hand, Turkey also argues that they will operate the S400 missile without any technical assistance from Russia. Due to this, Moscow has confirmed that the missile will come with Russian personnel. It will be unconvincing for Russia that Turkey will operate this missile independently for their defense architecture.

            After March 31 municipal elections, some experts have predicted that Turkey is taking a risk by canceling the S400 technology. This thing must be kept in mind by Turkey that if they cancel the deal with Russia about this missile system, then they are affecting their relations. Also, it can be noted that after S-400 is delivered to Turkey, then-new agreements will be imposed by DC by excluding Turkey from the production chain.

            In late May, many sources say that Some Russian military-technical personnel will come to Turkey for the reconnaissance of some possible deployment locations of the S400 batteries such as Ankara Polatli Artillery School, some sites in Antalya and some in Gaziantep. This visit will be another blow for Western partners. My sources in Moscow also assert that Moscow is very eager to establish joint-operation centers in Turkey to run the ‘integrated S400 air defense shield’ over the airspace of Turkey and will permanently deploy Russian officers and technical personnel for the maintenance of the systems. The permanent deployment of the Russian officers & technical personnel into Ankara and possible deployment sites for operating the S400 systems and for their maintenance will for sure raise questions about how Ankara will keep those NATO cosmic secrets from Russians. Similarly, the main question is that deployed How USA and NATO are organizing their assets at three different Turkish bases like—Incirlik, Malatya, and Konya with other facilities and why Russian assets are organized at different places? This is one of the most important questions for their relations.

            Furthermore, the USA wanted to recognize their presence at Incirlik air force base for better relations also some different dozen nuclear warhead changed their position. NATO is involved in changing their activities, and they are affecting forward base operation in Konya. On the other hand, its E-3A AWACS also help in completing operations or what would be the impact of S400 deployments into Turkey on NATO’s very critical radar based in Kurecik/Malatya? Moreover, is there any possibility that NATO countries have to think again about their role regarding forwarding bases in the Middle East and the Mediterranean, also in European Union countries like Cyprus, Italy, Greece and also in Turkey, and also in Arab countries’ like UAE, Qatar, and Jordan?

            My sources also emphasize that, for almost four months, Turkish officers have been excluded from high-level NATO meetings about the ballistic air defense systems & radar architecture, a grim development that shows that ‘trust deficiency’ between NATO member states and Turkey has already started. This deficiency would, for sure turn into a big ‘trust gap’ in due course.

Turkey-USA relationship: disagreement and divorce of Russia, Turkey, and the United States the current situation

            It can be noted that Turkey was the part of NATO allies from 1952, and both of these countries are showing their interest. However, their agreements are in trouble and difficult to be implemented due to some strange situations. Due to these circumstances, the relationship between USA and Turkey is affected. From the past couple of years, the relationship between Turkey and the USA is tensed and tough because Turkey is neglecting every point from the USA. There is a list of issues that are affecting the relationship between these countries. But the American government is still working on making a good relationship with Turkey by minimizing their policies. The national interest is extremely necessary for every important city like Ankara. This city is unable to secure the national interest because they are denying orders from USA governments and don’t want to work with them (Kınıklıoğlu, 2006).

            Taking the security development, paradigm shift in domestic politics sphere and thorny problems in its geopolitical proximity intensify this vulnerability, therefore it needs to be addressed so the determent mechanism must be implemented, Turkey has to look out for new opportunities in the market to procure sophisticated anti-aircraft armament to fortify and secure its land, air, and seas. After all these years, Turkey is fully aware of this sensitive environment and threats from the surrounding, Turkey as a valuable member of NATO is procuring –done deal-  S 400 missile defense from its historical and geopolitical adversary Russia to protect and deter air threats. Turkey as of today received the first shipment of the Russian Missile Defense technologies. This direct rapprochement sent “reliable partner” deficiency signal to the Western world, mainly the US and the historical relationship is getting sour in all aspect.

          In the international system today, interaction of states is woven in complexities and uncertainties. It is more incidental, eventful and intertwined. Thus, a foreign policy that shapes this web of interactions is multi-dimensional in its nature and diverse in its behaviors as the same Russian and Turkey relationship. In the macro-level of complexity or interaction of states encompasses crucial tools that need to be considered to asses and to explain politics internationally. Without these factors, the explanation and understanding of foreign policy may lead to inefficiencies. There are many useful devices in glossary toolbox of international relations that generously offer us a hand and take us out of the complexity and uncertainty of two states’ affairs.

USA and NATO Reaction, Sanction of Russia, Turkey, and the United States the current situation

            The purchase of S-400 missile was the main matter of existence for Turkey. From the reports, it can be seen that purchasing S-400 is not only a matter of security defence of Turkey, but it is also an existential one for Turkey. This is the main matter of existence for turkey. The USA is totally against this purchasing, but Turkey must have to purchase for their existence. Turkey must have to avoid all concessions and purchase this missile for defending their existence.

            The S400 are the missiles system that Russia wanted to sell to turkey. Besides this F-34 is the jet technology that was given from the USA to Turkey. But turkey wanted to buy S400 missiles, and they are ignoring the American technology. The reason was that they wanted to exist and also S400 missiles are more powerful and protective than jet technology. Due to this negotiation was held between America and Turkey and the American government asked them to delay purchasing these missiles from Russia. Turkey has made two important justification for buying S400 missiles. The first reason was the American was unwilling to transfer technology to turkey. The next reason was Turkey don’t want their military procurement to be tied with the USA.

            NATO is the process of the implementation of posture enhancements which increase the capabilities for the eastern flanks along with the escalation in the tensions of among the NATO as well as Russia since 2014. Therefore, Russia will follow the USA as well as NATO reactions to these postures where the enhancements remain understudied. The developed framework is used in the analysts, which could also assess the reactions of the Russians for the ongoing along with the proposed NATO reactions in the enhancements of Europe.

            The analyst must suppose different factors to attempting for determining the possible o reactions of Russia for the perceptions of the NATO intentions along with the Russian perceptions of the NATAO willingness for defined the members of the aggression. By the domestic context of Russia, the analysts must be supposed an extent if the various threats to the regime the legitimacy of power as well as the Russia preferences of the elite as well as the Vladimir Putin preferences (WINROW, 2017).

Different factors for the suggestions are very low in the incentive of a Russian attack of the NATO, involving perceptions of Russia, NATO has the willingness of fight which defined the various members against the attack of Russia, strategic as well as the political interest of the limited Russians in several NATO territories. The broadening security is of the launching priorities of the member states, where the NAGO launched the range of the initiatives involving the robust of military presences in the eastern states of the member along with the efforts of the counter-terrorism. There is a broad range of security efforts, where the NATAO has never been engaged in the activities of the exposé of the important shortfalls.

Defense security S400 versus F35: Does Turkey need of Russia, Turkey, and the United States the current situation

            The S400 are the missiles system that Turkey needed to procure. Turkey aimed to procure S400 missiles, and they are ignoring the American technology. The reason was that they needed to exist, and also S400 missiles are more powerful and protective than jet technology. Due to this, negotiations were held between America and Turkey, and the American government asked them to delay purchasing these missiles from Russia. Turkey has made two important justifications for buying S400 missiles. The first reason was the American was unwilling to transfer technology to turkey. The next reason was Turkey doesn’t need its military procurement to be tied with the USA.

            It can be noted that if S-400 is completely organized for Turkey and this country will be drifting away from the west in no time. This is also an important decision from Turkey. Around Europe, if there are some changes in NATO policies, then it will represent a huge gain for Moscow’s muscle-flexing. It will also confirm that Turkey will not be a part of strategic Eastern and Western anchor. The purchase of S-400 missile was the main matter for Turkey. From the reports, it can be seen that procuring S-400 is not only a matter of security defense of Turkey, but it is also a further development step for Turkey. This is the main matter of better defense and security system for turkey. The USA is totally against this procuring, but Turkey must not take a step back from this procurement. Turkey must avoid all concessions and purchase this missile for its defense and security.

Implications on Black and Mediterranean Sea Region of Russia, Turkey, and the United States the current situation

        The implication of the black sea regions is the crucial importance of Europe, which is a major crossroad as well as a critical interaction of the eastern plus western along with the South-northern corridors.

          The regions have three NATO members like Turkey, Romania, and Bulgaria along with several NATO partners of countries with the hostility plus instability of the area which directly impacts on the alliance.  During July 2016, in Warsaw, the focus of the Russian reactions are at  NATAO Summits, and when the leaders of the allies are clearly stated for the recent activities of Russia along with a polices to reduce the security and the stability, it increases the security environments. In the black Sea Region, the challenges are interconnected and inextricably intertwined in the wider context of Euro-Atlantic security.

Conclusion on Russia, Turkey, and the United States the current situation

            Summing up all the discussion from above, it is concluded that Turkey is not obeying orders of NATO. In this paper, there is a proper discussion about the overall scenario in detail. That will give information about the current situation of these countries. Decisions of Turkey and Russia are affecting both countries from a couple of years. Also, some US policies were affecting these countries. From the past information, it can be noted that Turkey was in trouble to balance ties with USA and Russia.

             From the information, it can be seen that Turkey is also a member of NATO because, at the end of the year, this country is accepting the delivery of F-35 jet. This missile system is known as S-400 that also contains the advance radar system which can detect aircraft. During his visit to other countries, Ankara took a huge blow from Washington. There is a conflict between these two countries, and it started after Turkey shot down the jet of Russia. The procurement of S-400 missile was the main matter of existence for Turkey. From the past couple of years, the relationship between Turkey and the USA are tensed because Turkey is neglecting every point from the USA.

References of Russia, Turkey, and the United States the current situation

Gurcan, M. (2016). Is Turkey all talk, or will it split from the West, NATO?

Gurcan, M. (2017). The rise of the Eurasianist vision in Turkey.

Gurcan, M. (2019). Turkey exerts its leverage in F-35 jet standoff with the US.

The Hurriyet daily news. (2019). S-400 purchase matter of existence for Turkey: Nationalist party leader.

Kınıklıoğlu, S. (2006). Relations, The Anatomy of Turkish-Russian. Insight Turkey, 81-96.

Winrow, G. (2017). Turkey and Russia: The Importance of Energy Ties. Turkey's Foreign Policy Reform Or Reset? 17-32.