The data that is
collected to answer the research question is analyzed to develop the results.
The results of the study indicates the risk mitigation policies of Saudi Arabia
regarding the foreign exchange rate risk. From the past several years Saudi
Arabia has pegged its currency against US Dollars. Over the years this policy
of Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries prove effective for the countries and
through this GCC countries have efficiently managed exchange rate risk. When
the currency is pegged with dollar it cannot float from a specific limit which
allow country to manage the risk.
However this policy does not prove effective in certain cases which are
going to be discussed further in the analysis section.
In recent years
Saudi Arabia is facing the crises of oil prices decline which has decrease the
revenue which Saudi Arabia generates from oil exports. Saudi Arabian economy is
highly depended on oil exports and due to heavily reliance on oil exports the
changes in prices of oils not only effect the exchange rate but also effect the
economy of the country. Recently Saudi Arabia economy has faced serious
challenges because of oil prices decline. As discussed earlier Saudi Arabia has
pegged its currency against US dollar which does not allow to float it
independently. The pressure has built up recently to allow Riyal to float so
that the decrease in revenue which Saudi Arabia is facing can be managed
accordingly (Atrill, 2014).
The Findings of
the research states that the oil prices have significant impact on the exchange
rate of Saudi Arabia. When the oil prices increase the exchange rate of Saudi
Arabia also increase as a result. However when the prices of the oil decrease
the exchange rate of Saudi Arabia decrease as result. In other words when the
prices of oil decreases Saudi Arabia have to face problems because its economy
currently is majorly focused on oil and oil related products. Due to heavy
reliance on oil related exports the economy experience major shock when [prices
decrease up to lot of extent. The solution of this problem is the
diversification of the economy. Therefore it can be said that changes in oi
prices does have impact on the exchange rate of Saudi Arabia (Melville, 2017).
The Government of
Saudi Arabia have taken initiatives to manage the foreign exchange rate risk.
For managing the foreign exchange rate risk the Government of Saudi Arabia has
pegged its currency with the US dollar as discussed earlier. After pegging the
currency with the US dollar the government tries to reduce the uncertainties
that occur in payment and the loss that occurs due to sudden exchange rate
fluctuations. In other words if the currency is unpegged the revenue which the
Saudi Arabia generates from oil export will decrease significantly if sudden
exchange rate fluctuation occurs. It means that the policy of Saudi Arabia to
manage exchange rate risk have proven quite effective over the past several
years.
Since the oil
prices are usually fixed in dollars the pegging the currency with the US dollar
has allowed Saudi Arabia to manage the currency risks exchange rate risk.
Through this the trader can easily trade without any difficulty and will want
to invest again in the future. Overall it can be said that the policy of Saudi
Arabia has managed the foreign exchange rate effectively however the
flexibility in the monetary policy has to be compromised. It means that the
Saudi will have to follow the direction which are made by the United States. In
other words if scenario changes and Country like Saudi Arabia needs flexibility
in its monetary policy than it will have to face issues (Sercu, 2009).
The recent
condition which the Saudi Arabia faced is due to the inflexibility in the
monetary policy. The country has faced decline in oil prices due to which its
revenue has decreased. It means that if Saudi Arabia keep on following the
pegged policy than it will have to sacrifices the growth because of tough
monetary policy. In recent years Saudi Arabia cost of keeping peg has increased
which has open the opportunities for Saudi Arabia to look for other
alternatives through which it can manage its decline of revenue. Saudi Arabia
have to think critically it chooses to unpeg its currency because fluctuation
in exchange rate can have drastic impact on the economy of the country. It is
important for Saudi Arabia to analyze the situation from various angles and
then take the decision regarding the scenario which it is currently facing.
The exchange rate
changes will definitely have impact on the United States as well. If the oil
prices increase the Exchange rate of Saudi Arabia will also increase which
means that revenue of Saudi Arabia will increase but on the other hand US will
have to pay more for the oil it means that it will have impact on United
States. The increase in oil prices will allow Saudi Arabia to generate
significant amount of profit because Saudi Arabian economy primarily based on
the oil exports. The Countries which export oil from Saudi Arabia pay huge
amount for oil exports (Melville, 2017).
If the changes in
exchange rate occurs it means that the US will also suffer from the
uncertainty. It is important that the exchange rate stays stable so that
traders can trade goods efficiently without any financial loss. If the exchange
rate keeps on changing than the investors will not invest in businesses and
trading will face financial difficulties. The increase in oil prices will allow
Saudi Arabia to generate significant amount of profit because Saudi Arabian
economy primarily based on the oil exports. The Countries which export oil from
Saudi Arabia pay huge amount for oil exports.
The findings of
the research study shows that the oil production decline have significant
impact on the GDP growth of the countries. Due to low oil production the speed
of the growth reduces. The findings of the study further discuss that when the
oil production decline it effects on the inflation rate as well. This study has
huge significance for the economists and policy makers. The research studies
shows that various factors have major influence over the exchange rate of oil
producing countries. It means that when oil prices changes the exchange rate of
Saudi Arabia and other oil producing countries will have significant impact.
The results of the
findings show that the oil price changes do have impact on the stock price
changes. The stock prices changes however does not show any impact on the oil
prices. It means that the investors who are investing in the oil sector should
look at the stock price changes to evaluate any change in prices. From the past
several years Saudi Arabia has pegged its currency against US Dollars. Over the
years this policy of Saudi Arabia and other GCC countries prove effective for
the countries and through this GCC countries have efficiently managed exchange
rate risk.
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