The aim of this paper is to provide deep insights regarding
the project appraisal and whether the FLIR corporation should invest in the
project or not. A critical financial statement analysis have been performed to
evaluate financial condition of the organization. The WACC of company is
calculated as the weighted average cost of the debt and the equity. For taking
the weight we have used the market value of the debt and equity as per the
latest financial statement published by the company for the Q2FY18. The
financial ratio analysis indicate positive liquidity position of the
organization. The current ratio in the year 2015 was 2.20 which increase and
become 3.51 in the year 2017. The ROA of the corporation has decreases which
indicates that the profitability of the organization is decreasing. The
inventory turnover has also show decline which is sign of decrease in the
amount of sales. The gross margin ratio however did not show much fluctuation
over the respective period. Based on the analysis below, we don’t recommend
investing in the project as it has negative NPV and IRR lower than the cost of
capital. The Net present value is an indicator of profitability which shows
whether the project will generate profit in the future or not. The NPV is among
the most commonly used approach to evaluate the profitability of a project.
Part 1
Financial statement analysis of
FLIR Systems Commercial company
FLIR SYSTEMS, INC.
|
CONSOLIDATED STATEMENT OF INCOME
|
(in thousands, except per share amounts)
|
Year Ended December 31,
|
|
Actual
2015
|
|
Actual
2016
|
|
Actual
2017
|
Revenue
|
$ 1,557,067
|
$
1,662,167
|
$
1,800,434
|
Cost of goods sold
|
803,506
|
|
895,046
|
|
941,658
|
Gross profit
|
753,561
|
|
767,121
|
|
858,776
|
Operating expenses:
|
|
|
|
|
Research
and development
|
132,892
|
|
147,537
|
|
170,735
|
Selling,
general and administrative
|
313,544
|
|
322,435
|
|
373,867
|
Restructuring expenses
|
1,361
|
|
1,431
|
|
625
|
Loss on
net assets held for sale
|
-
|
|
-
|
|
23588
|
Total operating expenses
|
447,797
|
|
471,403
|
|
568,815
|
Earnings from operations
|
305,764
|
|
295,718
|
|
289,961
|
Interest expense
|
14,086
|
|
18,071
|
|
16,804
|
Interest income
|
(1,167)
|
|
(1,402)
|
|
(1,764)
|
Other (income) expense, net
|
(12,601)
|
|
3,092
|
|
(4,144)
|
Earnings before income taxes
|
305,446
|
|
275,957
|
|
279,065
|
Income tax expense
|
63,760
|
|
109,331
|
|
171,842
|
NET INCOME
|
$ 241,686
|
|
$ 166,626
|
|
$ 107,223
|
Common Size
|
2015
|
|
2016
|
|
2017
|
Revenues
|
100%
|
|
100%
|
|
100%
|
Cost of goods sold
|
52%
|
|
54%
|
|
52%
|
Gross profit
|
48%
|
|
46%
|
|
48%
|
Research and development
|
9%
|
|
9%
|
|
9%
|
Selling, general and administrative
|
20%
|
|
19%
|
|
21%
|
Restructuring expenses
|
0%
|
|
0%
|
|
0%
|
Loss on net assets held for sale
|
-
|
|
-
|
|
1%
|
Total operating expenses
|
29%
|
|
28%
|
|
32%
|
Earnings from operations
|
20%
|
|
18%
|
|
16%
|
Interest expense
|
1%
|
|
1%
|
|
1%
|
Interest income
|
0%
|
|
0%
|
|
0%
|
Other (income) expense, net
|
-1%
|
|
0%
|
|
0%
|
Earnings before income taxes
|
20%
|
|
17%
|
|
15%
|
Income tax expense
|
4%
|
|
7%
|
|
10%
|
NET INCOME
|
16%
|
|
10%
|
|
6%
|
The above shows the income statement of the FLIR
organization. Through the income statement it can be seen that the net profit
of the corporation has decreased significantly. The net income was 16% of the
revenues which decrease up to 6% in the year 2017. Despite the increase in revenues the
corporation unable to enhance its profitability due to excessive increase in
expenditures (SINHA, 2012).
FLIR SYSTEMS, INC.
|
CONSOLIDATED BALANCE SHEET
|
(in thousands, except per share amounts)
|
Year Ended December 31,
|
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
ASSETS
|
|
|
|
Current assets:
|
|
|
|
Cash and cash equivalents
|
$472,785
|
$361,349
|
$519,090
|
Accounts receivable, net
|
326,098
|
352,020
|
346,867
|
Inventories
|
393,092
|
371,371
|
372,183
|
Assets held for sale, net
|
-
|
-
|
67,344
|
Prepaid expenses and other current assets
|
95,539
|
79,917
|
81,915
|
Total current assets
|
$1,287,514
|
$1,164,657
|
$1,387,219
|
Property and equipment, net
|
272,629
|
271,785
|
263,996
|
Preferred income taxes, net
|
55,429
|
45,243
|
21,001
|
Goodwill
|
596,316
|
801,406
|
909,811
|
Intangible assets,net
|
141,302
|
168,460
|
168,130
|
Other assets
|
53,210
|
168,155
|
59,869
|
TOTAL ASSETS
|
$2,406,400
|
$2,619,706
|
$2,810,026
|
Current liabilities:
|
|
|
|
Accounts payable
|
139,540
|
114,225
|
106,389
|
Deferred revenue
|
31,933
|
34,420
|
25,614
|
Accrued payroll and related liabilities
|
54,806
|
52,874
|
71,310
|
Accrued product warranties
|
13,406
|
17,476
|
15,024
|
Advance payment from customers
|
33,848
|
26,019
|
20,672
|
Accrued expenses
|
40,930
|
34,022
|
37,089
|
Accrued income taxes
|
201
|
51,017
|
64,136
|
Liabilities held for sale
|
-
|
-
|
39,544
|
Other current liabilities
|
5,987
|
16,659
|
15,155
|
Current portion, long-term debt
|
264,694
|
15,000
|
-
|
Total current liabilities
|
585,345
|
361,712
|
394,933
|
Long term debt
|
93,750
|
501,921
|
420,684
|
Deferred income taxes
|
3,623
|
2,331
|
12,496
|
Accrued income taxes
|
10,457
|
9,643
|
87,483
|
Pension and other long-term liabilities
|
63,710
|
65,773
|
59,872
|
Commitments and contingencies
|
|
|
|
Shareholders' equity:
|
|
|
|
Preferred stock, no shares outstanding
|
-
|
-
|
-
|
Common stock, 138,869 shares outstanding
|
1,374
|
12,139
|
91,162
|
Retained earnings
|
1,773,267
|
1,832,138
|
1,856,756
|
Accumulated other comprehensive loss
|
(125,126)
|
(165,951)
|
(113,360)
|
Total shareholders' equity
|
1,649,515
|
1,678,326
|
1,834,558
|
TOTAL LIABILITES AND SHARE HOLDERS' EQUITY
|
$2,406,400
|
$2,619,706
|
$2,810,026
|
Through analyzing the balance sheet of the FLIR Corporation
it can be seen that the total current assets of the organization has increased
significantly. The amount of equity and total assets also increased over the
three year period. The increase in the assets of the corporation indicates
growth of the organization and it can be said that in upcoming years the
organization will able to generate profit (Fridson & Alvarez,
2011).
Fore-casted Financial Statements
of FLIR Systems Commercial company
The forecasted financial statements of the FLIR organization
indicates that the investment in the new product line would not generate
significant amount of profit which becomes the reason for decreased revenue.
The forecasted income statement is presented in the Appendix 1 of the report.
The balance sheet of the organization is presented in the Appendix 2 of the
report.
Fore-casted Free Cash Flows of
FLIR Systems Commercial company
Free Cash Flow
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
2018
|
2019
|
2020
|
2021
|
2022
|
2023
|
2024
|
Earnings before Interest and Taxes (EBIT)
|
305,446
|
275,957
|
289,961
|
(15,000)
|
(16,000)
|
972
|
4,714
|
$9,146
|
$26,614
|
$10,756
|
less Taxes
|
63,760
|
109,331
|
171,842
|
-1200
|
-1280
|
133
|
646
|
1,253
|
3,646
|
1,474
|
Net Operating Profit after Taxes
|
$
241,686
|
$
166,626
|
$ 107,223
|
(13,800)
|
(14,720)
|
839
|
4,068
|
7,893
|
22,967
|
9,283
|
Plus: Depreciation and Amortization
|
49534
|
57513
|
71010
|
0
|
0
|
1714
|
750
|
535
|
874
|
625
|
Operating Cash Flow
|
291,220
|
224,139
|
178,233
|
(13,800)
|
(14,720)
|
2,553
|
4,818
|
8,428
|
23,842
|
9,908
|
Ending net long term assets
|
1,118,886
|
1,455,049
|
1,422,807
|
0
|
7,000
|
|
|
|
|
|
Change
in net long term assets
|
69,903
|
336,163
|
(32,242)
|
|
(7,000)
|
|
|
|
|
|
plus
Depreciation and Amortization
|
49534
|
57513
|
71010
|
0
|
0
|
|
|
|
|
|
Estimated residual value
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
1000
|
Estimated Capital Spending
|
119,437
|
393,676
|
38,768
|
0
|
(7,000)
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
(1,000)
|
Ending Net Working Capital
|
$702,169
|
$802,945
|
$992,286
|
0
|
700
|
2,643
|
12,316
|
22,920
|
34,766
|
36,209
|
Investment in Net Operating Working Capital
|
|
$100,776
|
$189,341
|
0
|
700
|
1,943
|
9,673
|
10,603
|
11,846
|
(34,766)
|
Free Cash Flow
|
|
(270,313)
|
(49,876)
|
(13,800)
|
(22,420)
|
610
|
(4,856)
|
(2,175)
|
11,996
|
45,674
|
Financial Ratio Analysis of FLIR
Systems Commercial company
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
Revenue Growth
|
2%
|
7%
|
8%
|
Return on Assets
|
10%
|
6%
|
4%
|
Net Profit Margin
|
15.52%
|
10.02%
|
5.96%
|
Asset Turnover
|
0.65
|
0.63
|
0.64
|
Accounts Receivable Turnover
|
76.44
|
77.30
|
70.32
|
Inventory Turnover
|
178.57
|
151.45
|
144.26
|
Accounts Payable Turnover
|
63.39
|
46.58
|
41.24
|
Current Ratio
|
2.20
|
3.22
|
3.51
|
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
Sales growth
|
2%
|
7%
|
8%
|
COGS/sales
|
52%
|
54%
|
52%
|
Gross margin
|
48%
|
46%
|
48%
|
Research and development
|
9%
|
9%
|
9%
|
Selling, general, administrative
|
20%
|
19%
|
21%
|
EBIT
|
20%
|
17%
|
17%
|
Tax Rate
|
4%
|
7%
|
10%
|
Net income margin
|
15%
|
10%
|
6%
|
The financial ratio analysis indicate positive liquidity
position of the organization. The current ratio in the year 2015 was 2.20 which
increase and become 3.51 in the year 2017. The ROA of the corporation has
decreases which indicates that the profitability of the organization is
decreasing. The inventory turnover has also show decline which is sign of
decrease in the amount of sales. The gross margin ratio however did not show
much fluctuation over the respective period (Fridson & Alvarez,
2011).
Ratios
|
2015
|
2016
|
2017
|
Accounts Receivable Turnover (DSO)
|
76
|
77
|
70
|
Inventory - Days of Inventory
|
179
|
151
|
144
|
Accounts Payable - Days Outstanding
|
63
|
47
|
41
|
Prepaid expenses and other current assets
|
6%
|
5%
|
5%
|
|
|
|
|
Accrued payroll and liabilities
|
4%
|
3%
|
4%
|
Part 2
WACC of FLIR Systems Commercial
company
The WACC of company is calculated as the weighted average
cost of the debt and the equity. For taking the weight we have used the market
value of the debt and equity as per the latest financial statement published by
the company for the Q2FY18. WACC is the minimum hurdle rate that the project
needs to achieve to generate the minimum required return for the company. Therefore the calculation of WACC is very
important aspect in the capital budgeting and need to be evaluated very
carefully. For calculating the WACC we need the cost of debt, cost of equity,
book value of the debt and equity for calculating the weighted WACC.
WACC is calculated as
WACC = E/V* Re + D/V*Rd*(1-Tc)
Where:
Re = cost of equity
Rd = cost of debt
E = Book value of the firm's equity
D = Book value of the firm's debt
V = E + D = total book value of the firm’s capital
E/V = percentage of capital that is equity
D/V = percentage of capital that is debt
Tc = corporate tax rate
Cost of equity of FLIR Systems
Commercial company
The cost of equity for FLIR is calculated using the CAPM
model in which we have the taken the beta, risk free return and an assumed
market risk premium of 8%.
The cost of equity using the dividend discount model is
calculated as below
Risk free return + beta * market risk premiums
3.24% + 0.59*8%
= 7.96%
Cost of debt of FLIR Systems
Commercial company
After this we have calculated the cost of debt using the
debt figure given in the financial statement of the company. As per that the
company has debt outstanding with annual coupon of 3.125% and market value of
$421 million (Higgins, 2007).
The cost of debt would be equal to the YTM of the bond
outstanding, which can equate the present value of the future payment on the
bond equal to the market price of the bond. Therefore using this equation we
have calculated the YTM of the bond at 3.125% (Fridson & Alvarez,
2011).
As at this YTM the present value of the future cash flows
from the bond is equal to the current market price of the bond (Higgins,
2007).
Also the interest on the debt is tax deductible; therefore
we have to take the tax adjusted cost of debt. The average tax rate is
calculated as the tax rate paid by the company in its latest financial
statement and using the equation
Income tax expense/Pre-tax income
The company average tax rate is approximately 13.7%.
Post tax cost of debt = 3.125%* (1- 13.7%) = 2.70%
Therefore after calculating all the cost we can calculate
the WACC of the company as given below
WACC Calculation
|
As per existing capital structure
|
As per target capital structure
|
Debt
|
$421
|
|
No of share
|
138,019,573
|
|
Price as on June 30
|
51.97
|
|
Market cap
|
7,172.88
|
|
Total cap
|
7,593.88
|
|
Debt weight
|
0.06
|
20%
|
Equity weight
|
0.94
|
80%
|
Coupon rate
|
3.125%
|
3.125%
|
Average tax
|
13.70%
|
13.70%
|
Post tax cost of debt
|
2.70%
|
2.70%
|
Beta
|
0.59
|
0.59
|
Risk free rate
|
3.24%
|
3.24%
|
Market risk premium
|
8%
|
8%
|
Cost of equity
|
7.96%
|
7.96%
|
WACC
|
7.67%
|
6.91%
|
As the proportion of equity is higher, therefore the WACC is
very close to the cost of equity.
Net Present Value (NPV), Internal Rate of
Returns (IRR), Payback Period (PP), MIRR and Profitability index
After the WACC we need to analyze the project cash flows and
assess the viability of the project with the project WACC. For any project to be acceptable the project
cash flows need to generate positive NPV and an IRR higher than the WACC and
the discounted payback period should be less than the project life so that the
project cash flows are recovered well before the project ends (Pandey,
2015).
Analysis of FLIR Systems Commercial
company
As per existing capital structure
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
WACC
|
7.7%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PV factor
|
1.00
|
0.93
|
0.86
|
0.80
|
0.74
|
0.69
|
0.64
|
PV of cash flow
|
(13,800)
|
(20,823)
|
526
|
(3,890)
|
(1,619)
|
8,291
|
29,318
|
NPV
|
(1,997)
|
|
IRR
|
6.52%
|
MIRR
|
6.76%
|
Payback
|
4.67 year
|
PI
|
0.94
|
As per target capital structure
|
0
|
1
|
2
|
3
|
4
|
5
|
6
|
WACC
|
6.91%
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
PV factor
|
1.00
|
0.94
|
0.87
|
0.82
|
0.77
|
0.72
|
0.67
|
PV of cash flow
|
(13,800)
|
(20,971)
|
534
|
(3,974)
|
(1,665)
|
8,590
|
30,593
|
NPV
|
(694)
|
|
IRR
|
6.52%
|
MIRR
|
6.60%
|
Payback
|
4.67
year
|
PI
|
0.98
|
As per the calculation above the project has NPV of ($1997)
with the existing capital structure and NPV of ($694) with the target capital
structure and in both the cases the IRR and MIRR are lower than the WACC
calculated (Melville, 2017).
However all the method being chosen above has certain
drawbacks also, like NPV is based on certain assumptions which include the
discount rate, initial investment, sale and cost estimates. Therefore
management should spend considerable time in estimating these variables and the
future cash flows. Similarly the IRR is based on the assumption that the future
cash flows are reinvested at the IRR of the project, which is not possible in
certain cases and therefore may be change in the future reinvestment rate and
therefore the project IRR will be lower than the estimated IRR. Similarly the
payback period doesn’t consider the cash flow beyond the payback period and
doesn’t tell about the profitability of the project and how much cash flow will
be available after the payback period (Pandey, 2015).
Project Recommendation of FLIR
Systems Commercial company
Based on the analysis below, we don’t recommend investing in
the project as it has negative NPV and IRR lower than the cost of capital. The
Net present value is an indicator of profitability which shows whether the
project will generate profit in the future or not. The NPV is among the most
commonly used approach to evaluate the profitability of a project. The negative
NPV is indicating that investing in this project would not be a good idea
because the project will not generate profit and the corporation will have to
face financial loss if they are going to invest in this project (Christoffersen,
2011).
The IRR of the project is also lower than the cost of
capital which means that the cost is higher than return. Moreover the financial
statements analysis have shown that the organization profitability is
decreasing which means that the organization should focus on increasing its
profitability. It is not a suitable time for the corporation to invest in a
major project because the financial condition of the organization needs
improvement. Furthermore such projects should be selected which generate profit
in the future. It is recommended that the organization should hire new
financial analyst which would help them to improve their financial condition.
Risk Analysis of FLIR Systems
Commercial company
There are several risk which are related to a new project.
The economic conditions, financial situation of the organizations, the taste
& preferences of the customers and market trends all of these factors have
impact on the project and create risks. It is important for the top management
of the corporation to identify the risks and prepare risk mitigation strategy
during the planning phase of the project (Atrill, 2014).
Conclusion of FLIR Systems
Commercial company
Based on all above analysis, projected cash flow of the
project, we believe that the management should not take this project as it has
negative NPV ad lower IRR and this project will not add any value to the
company shareholders. The Net present value is an indicator of profitability
which shows whether the project will generate profit in the future or not. The
NPV is among the most commonly used approach to evaluate the profitability of a
project. The negative NPV is indicating that investing in this project would
not be a good idea because the project will not generate profit and the
corporation will have to face financial loss if they are going to invest in
this project.
Moreover the financial statements analysis have shown that
the organization profitability is decreasing which means that the organization
should focus on increasing its profitability. It is not a suitable time for the
corporation to invest in a major project because the financial condition of the
organization needs improvement. Furthermore such projects should be selected
which generate profit in the future. It is recommended that the organization
should hire new financial analyst which would help them to improve their
financial condition.
References of FLIR Systems Commercial
company
Atrill,
P. (2014). Financial Management for Decision Makers (7 ed.). Pearson Higher Ed.
Christoffersen, P. (2011). Elements of Financial Risk
Management. Academic Press.
Fridson, M. S., & Alvarez, F. (2011). Financial
Statement Analysis: A Practitioner's Guide. John Wiley & Sons.
Higgins. (2007). Analysis for Financial Management. Tata
McGraw-Hill Education.
Melville, A. (2017). International Financial Reporting: A
Practical Guide (6 ed.). Pearson Higher Ed.
Pandey, I. (2015). Financial Management. Vikas Publishing
House.
SINHA, G. (2012). FINANCIAL STATEMENT ANALYSIS . PHI
Learning Pvt. Ltd.
Appendix 1
|
Forecast 2018
|
Forecast 2019
|
Forecast 2020
|
Forecast 2021
|
Forecast 2022
|
Forecast 2023
|
Forecast 2024
|
Revenue
|
$0
|
$0
|
$5,400
|
$26,190
|
$50,809
|
$73,927
|
$59,757
|
Cost of goods sold
|
0
|
0
|
2,862
|
13,881
|
26,929
|
39,181
|
31,671
|
Gross profit
|
0
|
0
|
2,538
|
12,309
|
$23,880
|
$34,745
|
$28,086
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operating expenses:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Research
and development
|
15000
|
10000
|
486
|
2,357
|
$4,573
|
$6,653
|
$5,378
|
Selling,
general and administrative
|
|
6,000
|
1,080
|
5,238
|
10,162
|
1,479
|
11,951
|
Total operating expenses
|
15000
|
16,000
|
1,566
|
7,595
|
14,734
|
8,132
|
17,330
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Earnings before income taxes
|
-15000
|
(16,000)
|
972
|
4,714
|
$9,146
|
$26,614
|
$10,756
|
Income tax expense
|
-1200
|
-1280
|
133
|
646
|
1253
|
3646
|
1474
|
NET INCOME
|
-$13,800
|
-$14,720
|
$839
|
$4,068
|
$7,893
|
$22,967
|
$9,283
|
Appendix 2
FLIR SYSTEMS, INC.
|
|
FORECASTED BALANCE SHEET
|
(in thousands, except per share amounts)
|
Year Ended December 31,
|
|
2018
|
2019
|
2020
|
2021
|
2022
|
2023
|
2024
|
ASSETS
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Current assets:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Cash and cash equivalents
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Accounts receivable, net
|
0
|
0
|
1,036
|
4,879
|
9,187
|
13,773
|
11,460
|
Inventories
|
0
|
700
|
2,071
|
9,687
|
18,096
|
27,343
|
22,921
|
Prepaid expenses and other current assets
|
0
|
0
|
270
|
1,310
|
2,540
|
3,696
|
2,988
|
Total current assets
|
0
|
700
|
3,377
|
15,875
|
29,824
|
44,812
|
37,369
|
Property and equipment
|
0
|
7,000
|
7,000
|
7,000
|
7,000
|
7,000
|
7,000
|
Accumulated depreciation
|
0
|
0
|
1,000
|
2,715
|
3,939
|
4,813
|
5,438
|
Property and equipment, net
|
0
|
7,000
|
6,000
|
4,285
|
3,061
|
2,187
|
1,562
|
Preferred income taxes, net
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Goodwill
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Intangible assets,net
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Other assets
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
TOTAL ASSETS
|
0
|
7,700
|
9,377
|
20,161
|
32,885
|
46,998
|
38,930
|
Current liabilities:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Accounts payable
|
0
|
0
|
518
|
2,511
|
4,872
|
7,089
|
5,730
|
Deferred revenue
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Accrued payroll and related liabilities
|
-
|
-
|
216
|
1,048
|
2,032
|
2,957
|
2,390
|
Advance payment from customers
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Accrued expenses
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Accrued income taxes
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Other current liabilities
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Total current liabilities
|
0
|
0
|
734
|
3,559
|
6,904
|
10,046
|
1,160
|
Long term debt
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
0
|
Shareholders' equity:
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Retained earnings
|
1,842,956
|
1,828,236
|
1,829,075
|
1,833,143
|
1,841,036
|
1,850,318
|
1,873,286
|
Total shareholders' equity
|
1,842,956
|
1,828,236
|
1,829,075
|
1,833,143
|
1,841,036
|
1,850,318
|
1,873,286
|
TOTAL LIABILITIES AND SHARE HOLDERS' EQUITY
|
1,842,956
|
1,828,236
|
1,830,542
|
1,840,261
|
1,854,845
|
1,870,410
|
1,882,566
|