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Macroeconomics is referred to as the study of economic behaviour as a whole. It studies the general factors of the economy. It focuses on the variables of the macro economy and the policies of government regarding the control and stabilisation of national economy ensure the reduction in the economic fluctuations over time. However, macroeconomics is a complicated study as many factors influence the macroeconomics. Following this, various economic indicators are used to analyse these factors to assess the overall health of the national economy. In this regard, the macroeconomists forecast the expected economic conditions and enable the consumers, organisations and governments to take well informed and better decisions. Following this, the macroeconomic analysis is usually focused on the three main variables that include GDP, unemployment and inflation.
Three main variables of Macroeconomics of USA stock market
The world GDP has grown by 3.754% in 2019, and
it has reached to $86,370.52 Billion as compared to $448.10 Billion in 2018
Gross Domestic Product (GDP) of USA stock market
National output or GDP is considered as the
most crucial variable in the macroeconomics. The GDP indicates the production
capacity, and it is a financial measure of products and services produced by a
country over some time. However, the macroeconomics focused on the real GDP
rather than the nominal GDP to assess economic health. The real GDP takes
inflation into account instead reflecting only price changes. Furthermore, GDP
is considered as a steppingstone for analysing the macroeconomics.
In the first quarter of 2019, the economy
of the United States has grown by 3.2%. This growth was faster than expected as
the expected increase was 2.5%. Following this, since 2015, it is the first
time that the US GDP has topped 3% in the first quarter. In this regard,
exports and personal spending played a significant role. During this Q1, the
exports of US has raised to 3.7% whereas the imports were decreased by 3.7%. Furthermore,
disposable personal income has also increased by 3% during the same period. Moreover,
by excluding the energy and food, the price has risen by 3.7% whereas the
overall rates have increased by 0.8%
Unemployment Rate of USA stock market
Unemployed is one of the essential
variables of macroeconomics that is used to assess the economic health of the
country, region or the world. The rate of unemployment indicates that, in the given
population which many people are unable to find the employment. The high standard
of unemployment suggests the concerning economic conditions in the given community.
On the other hand, the low unemployment rate reflects the sound financial
health. Following this, if the economy grows from period to period, the unemployment
rate tends to decrease because more employees are required to increase
production when the output is higher.
From 1948 to 2019, the average unemployment
rate in the United States is 5.76%.
However, in this first quarter of 2019, the unemployment rate of the United
States was witnessed as 3.8% which was 3.9% in the last quarter of the previous
year. Following this, the numbers of unemployed people have also decreased as
it reached 6.2 million. Moreover, the rate of participation has also reduced from
63.2 in February to 63% in March
Inflation Rate of USA stock market
Inflation is also
considered as a key macroeconomic variable. The rise can be an increase in the price
level or money supply. Therefore, inflation is measured by two ways that are GDP
deflator and the Consumer Price Index. The GDP deflator represents the ratio of
real and nominal GDP whereas the consumer price index indicates the current
price of the product or service. However, both the GDP deflator and CPI move in
one direction and they have less than 1% difference. Following this, if the
real GDP is lower than the nominal GDP, it indicates that the price of the product
or service is raising.
In March 2019,
the annual inflation rate of the United States has raised by 1.9% which is the highest
value during the two and half year. This increase is also above the market
consensus that is 1.8%. Following this, the price of food has risen at a fast
pace whereas the energy deflation has eased. The food price has increased by
2.1% from 2% in February. According to the Labour Department of the United
States, the current rate of inflation is 1.9% as of March 2019
Macroeconomic policies of USA stock market
Macroeconomic policies have a significant impact on the national economy. In this regard, these policies enable governments to stabilise the national economy. Furthermore, these policies are focused on reducing the effects of the business cycle to achieve the economic objectives concerning growth, employment and stability. Governments can achieve these objectives by implementing effective macroeconomic policies.
Fiscal Policies of USA stock market
The economy of the United States is in excellent
condition following the economic growth and ease of trade tension between China
and the US. However, some risks might disturb the steady pace of economic
growth. The role of US fiscal policy depends on three factors including
potential government shut-down, infrastructure spending and automatic spending
cuts. The US government has implemented debit celling policy in March this year
after its suspension for a year. Following this, the government has set the
limit debt ceiling limit of $22 trillion. However, it is expected the deadline
might be reached till August to October this year. Thus, the risk of a government
shutdown cannot be neglected by any mean.
Furthermore, their government has
established some restrictions on public budget growth and also limits public
expenditures. However, these constraints are suspended until the end of 2019. Following
this, if the government fails to suspend them before, 2020 or approve new
limits a cut of $126 billion federal spendings will come into force. On the
other hand, the approval of increased infrastructural spending will also boost
the growth of the US economy in 2020
Monetary Policies of USA stock market
On January 2019, the Federal Reserves have
voted that the interest rate will be maintained at the current level of 2.25%
to 2.5%. Following this, the Fed also indicated more flexibility through a planned
reduction in the balance sheet. Moreover, the Fed is intended to keep its short-term
interest rates. The decision has been anticipated by the official of the central
bank. In this regard, the three years campaign would be paused to tighten the monetary
policy of the US as the economy slows.
Following this, including the current
campaign to reduce the $4 trillion balance sheet, the central bank has
announced other measure to decrease the potential obstacles to growth.
Following this announcement, a positive impact of stock has been witnessed as
the industrial index moved towards a slight gain from the 150-points loss. In
this regard, the officials are committed to achieving the targeted goals before
moving
Conclusion on USA stock market
Based on the analysis above of the macroeconomic
it is concluded that the macroeconomic policy is an essential yet highly
critical aspect of the economy that deals with the functions of the economy. It
provides comprehensive information to governments, business organisations and
people to make well-informed decisions. The macroeconomic is based on the three
key pillars that are
Furthermore, the employment rate in the US
has also decreased by .1%. Both these variables are favourable for eth economic
growth of the country. On the other hand, the inflation rate of the US has
increased during the first quarter of 2019. However, the overall financial
condition of the US is good, and the government is committed to ensuring economic
sustainability by marinating the interest rate, investing infrastructure
spending and reducing the possibilities of potential government shut-down.
Uniti is a real estate investment trust
that is managed internally. The group is involved in the acquisition and
construction of the communications infrastructure. The Uniti Group is considered as the industry
leader in the communication industry for providing a wireless infrastructural
solution. The group owns millions of fibre strand miles, hundreds of wireless
towers along with other communications real estate. The Uniti group is
providing services all over the United States and Latin America. Uniti Group
Inc. is operating in the real estate sector and REIT industry in the United
States. As of April 2019, the ISS Governance Quality Score of the group is 2. The
Scores reflects the decile rank of the company relative to its index or region.
Following this, 1 indicates a lower risk of governance whereas 10 indicate a higher
risk of management
The financial and economic forecasts of
real estate for 2019 look intense. Therefore, the retail real estate investors
are seeking for the best option. This trend is expected to continue to the next
year as well. Following this, the real estate investors in the United States
are planning to raise their commitment by 2020
Apple is a well-known name all over the
globe. It is undoubtedly one of the ablest
and successful companies in the world. Apple is providing robust technology
products along with exceptional software services and third-party digital
application and content. The company is engaged in the design, production and
marketing of media devices, portable digital music player, personal computer
and mobile communication. The company is operating in the technology sector and
Consumer Electronics industry. The consumer electronic devises are specifically
designed for communication, entertainment and information purposes.
The global consumer electronics market has
reached $3 trillion. In this regard, the consumer electric industry of United
States has contributed more than $ 70 billion in the last year whereas it is
expected to top the list by 2023 with the contribution of $95 billion. In this
regard, the consumer industry of the United States is expected to grow by 3.9%
in 2019 as compared to 2018. Following this, the CE industry of the United
States will reach a total of $ 398 billion in the retail revenue by 2019.
Amazon has become a well-known and trusted
name in the global retail industry. The company is engaged in the sales of
consumer products in retail. Amazon also manufactures and sells different
electronic devices. The company is also involved in the content purchase and
sells merchandise. The company is operating in the Consumer Cyclical sector and
speciality retail industry.
The retail trade of US has jumped 1.6% in
March 2019 by beating the market expectations that was 0.9%. Moreover, in the retail business, it was the most
significant increased since September 2017. During the first quarter of 2019,
the speciality industry has achieved revenue growth by 21.54% year on year
whereas the sequential revenue increased by 11.92%. Following this, the
speciality retail industry has made the highest revenue growth within the
retail sector.
Wal-Mart is considered as the leading
distribution group in the world. Wal-Mart is deal with retail and wholesale
operation around the globe in various formats. The company is engaged in the
business of supermarkets, hypermarkets, supercentres, warehouses, discount
stores, cash and carry stores, convenience stores and drug stores. The company
is operating various e-commerce websites and around 11,300 stores in 27
countries under 58 banners.
Wal-Mart is operating in consumer Defensive
sector and retail and distribution industry. According to the Census Department
of the United States, the sales of US retail have decreased by 0.2% in February
this year. However, the sales of department store have increased by 0.5%.
Moreover, in the first quarter of 2019, around 55994 stores have closed whereas
the sales of online stores have increased
Tesla Inc was formally known as Tesla
Motors, is an electric-automobile manufacturer of America. The company is
involved in the designing, manufacturing and selling of high-performance
electric vehicles along with the electronic vehicle powertrain components.
Tesla owns the sale and service network whereas it also sells the powertrain
component of electric cars to other manufacturers
The company is operating in the Consumer
Discretionary sector and automotive industry.
During the first quarter of 2019, almost every major automaker has
reported weak sales in the US. However, it is expected that active labour
market and the robust economy will encourage the consumer and the industrial
sales will increase toward the end of the year 2019
Nike is involved in designing, developing
and marketing of athletic footwear, equipment, apparel, and accessory. The
company also sells its products through retail stores, subsidiaries,
distributors and its stores.
Nike Inc. is operating in the consumer discretionary sector and the apparel and textile industry. The Apparel and footwear industry of the United States has achieved a 9.92% increase in revenues during the first quarter of 2019. Furthermore, the consumer discretionary sector has also made higher revenue per employee.
Recommendation of USA stock market
The sector rotation strategy is based on
the movement of investment throughout the business sectors. It is used to take benefits
from the cyclical trends. Following are some of the recommendation regarding
the defensive and cyclical industries based on the sector rotation.
·
The real estate industry is
currently a defensive industry and investing in this industry will bring the
expected profits.
·
The electronic market is
rapidly growing all over the world including the United States; therefore;
investment in this cyclical industry can bring considerable benefits.
·
The local industry of the US is
also a cyclical industry and investment in the retail sector will be beneficial
for investors.
·
The automotive industry is at
the defensive stage right now; therefore, investing in this sector won’t be the
right decision, and it might not fulfil the expectation of profit and growth.
·
Apparel and textile industry is
also a cyclical industry at this point of time; therefore; it can be a good
option for investing.
To analyse the impact of the macroeconomics
on some of the significant business organisation of America, it is aimed to investigate
the stock performance analysis.
Apple has been doing amazingly well in the
IT industry as it has made significant development by launching new products.
Apple creativity and innovativeness is the key to Apple’s success, and so Apple
provides quality products to its consumers. Subsequently, Apple has an extensive
range of loyal customers that wait for the new product of Apple instead of
shifting towards the other options. The start of the first quarter of Apple
declined 5% as compared to the last quarter of 2018 but still, Apple received a
rise for its share of around 7.5% and its price per share has reached to $4.18
EPS. In the evaluation of the Apple performance it can be seen that significant
revenue comes from the iPhone, but unfortunately the iPhone revenue decreased
to 15% as compared to the past year, but luckily iPhone services have received
all-time high with 19% growth and have reached to $10.9 billion revenue that
helped Apple to recover its poor performance of iPhone. Similarly, Apple also
received a good response from this Wearable, Accessories, home and Mac that even
reached to an all-time high with a growth rate of 33%, 9% and at the same time,
17% rise in iPad. Following this, the Apple’s CEO Tim Cook claimed that either
their devices sale has reached to all-time high 1.4 billion, but still, they
have not achieved the expected targets of their quarter, but again, overall
growth is satisfactory as services business has broken its previous records
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AAPL/
Amazon has made revolutionary success in
the digital world and has made significant achievements since the starting of
its business. Amazon has created its versatile business all over the globe as a
dominating selling company online and providing customers more ease and
satisfaction which is its power tool to an increase in its industry. Since the
fall of 2018, its rates were declined just like the other technology companies.
Investors of amazon think that there is a lot of new in 2019 that is a factor that
most investors are keep investing in it. There is significant top-line slowdown
with the amendment of large setup for the performance of its part. The total
share market of Amazon is projected to see its share reaches up to 52.4% in
2019 and it is higher expectations from the last year as in 2018, overall
shares were 48%.
In 5 days of April 2019, it made higher rates four times greater, and in one month it makes prices 15% higher. Splitting in the stock can never create importance in share market. Its share market rates are increasing at higher rates as compared to the previous years. It makes measurable success in its business. At 26th of April 2019, it's stock rate increases at 2.54% as compared to the last day in which growth in rates was 0.03%. If you compare 23rd and 24th April than the percentage of 23rd April was 1.93%, and the next days it decreased and became -1.14%. Since 1st of January performance rate was 21.62%. In a 3rd month, the performance rates became 8.85%, and prominent notice can measure in just six months of 2019 with the performance rate of 25.96%. The line graph of Amazon shows an increase in the stock prices in the three months. It can be said that in upcoming months the stock prices of Amazon will further experience growth so investing in Amazon stock would be the right decision.
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/AMZN/chart?p=AMZN
Nike is a growing company with exceeding
rates over time in the stock market all over the world. Its quarter 2019 growth
in the stock market was revealed in demand in March 21st 2019. This
company is in continuous increase because it completed analyst expectations and
exceeding it's earning rates from estimates. There is mentioned revenue of 9.6
billion dollars in quarter3 of 2019, and these stock performance rates are 7%
higher than the previous year in which till that time it was 9 billion dollars.
If examined on a year-on-year basis, the prices were increased by 11% on that
particular year. This reveals the effective growth rate all over the time by
categories such as sportswear and Jordan which help to continue double-digit
growth all over Asia with a slight decline by offsets in Europe and the US. In
the third quarter, earning came with 0.68 dollars per share which are represented
as compared to 2018 in which loss occurs at -0.57 dollars per shares. There is
shown a strict difference in stock performances is because of the lower tax
rates with a reduction in implementation of Jobs acts and Tax cuts with more
exceptional selling prices which leads to the higher profit and production in
2019 quarter three as compared to the previous year in which tax rates were
higher.
Nike digital showed an efficient performance in the third quarter of 2019 by 36% on the basis f constant currency. The selling of sneakers is in collaboration of athletes, universities and celebrities with the aid of the Nike app that is newly launched in the market for getting a massive response of customers. The sale of SNKRS was 100% in the third quarter of this year with 17 out of 20 top SNKRS launch. It was a record-breaking selling as it showed the ability of Nike to drive energy and handle scale with a procession of 300 transactions per second on average. With the use of the app, performance rates become 40% higher while in 2018, the share performance was up to 28.6% that is 30$ in 2019 and 32% is expected in 2020 with the use of mobile apps. Its digital ecosystem is increasing at higher rates with the increased use of digitalisation and higher investment rates. Nikes stock prices have experienced an increase in the costs; however, at the end of March, the stock prices face a sudden decline. The prices in April again started to increase. Overall it can be said that the estimates show a bit of fluctuation.
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/NKE
The indicator for stock performance can be changed in stock prices rates which alter the performance rates. In 2019, performance rates are expected high overall as compared to the previous year as its relative performance is estimated and calculated. In January its performance rates are counted higher as compared to the last year of January. The most recent update is about 11.15 dollar increase per share. In quarter one in 2019, the rates are doubled than the 2018 quarter. On 25th of April, the prices were 11.89 dollars but closed with 11.85 dollars, and in 29th of April, the opening was at 11.50 and closing was at 11.15 dollars which is decreased stock performance from the previous days but high as compared to the year 2018. Shares of Uniti Group fell 51.6% in February; it happened when regional telecom Windstream Holdings Uniti's filed for bankruptcy. Windstream's business has been unhealthy for years, which is why the company spun off Uniti as a separate company in the first place. So when a federal judge ruled that some of Windstream's debts were in default because of the Uniti split in 2015. Windstream's stock closed 61% lower that day, dragging Uniti along for 37% in one day. Up to February, the stock prices were experiencing growth; however, at the end of Feb, the stock prices decline up to a lot of extents. In the line graph below it can be seen that the stock prices have fallen drastically in 3 months period. Shortly it can be said that the corporation can experience a further decline in stocks. That is why it would not be appropriate to invest in Uniti group stocks.
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/chart/UNIT
As it has its several services in the health care centres and business is to deal with retail pharmacies. This company is having 75.65 billion dollars while reporting in three different segments which are named as pharmacy services, LTC and corporate sectors. The stock yield of CVS health crop in 2018 was 3.42 present with annual growth of 7.40% as compared to the past recent years. In the past year, the company lost 421 million dollars and in comparison to this percentage moved over the interval in February 2019 by -8.10%. In 2019, the company continue to achieve success, and it is 0.5% greater than the expectations did for achievements of 2019. There is a dilution of EPS from GAAP with a various range of 4.88 dollars and $5.08 with the deliverance of dilution in EPS within a range of $6.68 and $7.41 that is per share determined value. It holds 27.7% of the shares in the quarter of 2019 according to the analyst and buys 18.1% with the strong buy of 54.55%.
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/CVS/chart?p=CVS
Tesla has failed to meet the expectation of
the investors and missed its production and delivery targets during the first
quarter of 2019. The Analysts were expecting the delivery of 76,000 vehicles
whereas the company delivered only 63,000 cars. Furthermore, Tesla reported a
31% decline in shipments as compared to the last quarter of 2018. The company produced around 86,555 vehicles
during the fourth quarter of last year where it produced only 77,100 cars in
this quarter.
Following this epic miss, the company has
reported a 10.7% decline in its shares in April this year. This decline was a
reaction, as the investors were disappointed with the unexpected low delivery
numbers. Likewise, the profit margins also declined in the first quarter. However,
the company is committed to achieving its annual sales targets
Source: https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/TSLA/chart?p=TSLA
Price to Earnings ratio is used to evaluate
whether a stock is over or under-valued. In this case, to find the P/E values,
the stock prices are divided over the most recent earning per share. As per
this value, an investor can decide whether the investment within a specific
organisation would be fruitful or not. Therefore, this ratio is regarded as a
useful evaluation method for investors before making a buying decision
Subsequently, according to this ratio, it
is found that the PR ratio of Amazon is located on 29th April at
80.54. According to this valuation method, it is found that the P/E ratio of
Amazon is high; therefore the company is expected to receive good growth in the
future. Consequently, the investors are recommended to invest within Amazon as
it is expected to earn a considerable profit
|
Current Valuation | ||||
|
AMZN | ||||
|
|
AMZN |
Industry Avg |
S&P 500 |
AMZN 5Y Avg* |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Price/Earnings |
80.9 |
56.5 |
19.8 |
374.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Price/Book |
19.7 |
11.1 |
3.2 |
20.5 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Price/Sales |
4 |
2.8 |
2.2 |
2.9 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Price/Cash Flow |
28.3 |
7.8 |
13 |
32 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dividend Yield % |
— |
0.1 |
2.1 |
— |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source:http://financials.morningstar.com/valuation/price-ratio.html?t=AAPL®ion=usa&culture=en-US
The P/E ratio of the Amazon Corporation is higher than the industry average which indicates that the investors are expecting growth in the stocks of the company. Also, it means an increase in stock prices because a company which is losing money don’t have a higher P/E ratio. That is why investing in Amazon stocks is the right decision.
Apple Inc. Stock of USA stock market
Apple has also been doing well in the IT
industry, and it has a considerable impact on the overall economy of the
country. Subsequently, on the base of the following PE ratio of Apple, it is found
that as compared to the past months, now Apple’s PE value has been increasing
and from below 10 in February it is now rising and has reached to 16.62. On the
base of these analyses, it is recommended that it is also a good time for the
investor to put their money in Apple Inc.’s business as they can expect a good
rise from it
|
Current Valuation | ||||
|
AAPL | ||||
|
|
AAPL |
Industry Avg |
S&P 500 |
AAPL 5Y Avg* |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Price/Earnings |
16.8 |
15.2 |
19.8 |
15.4 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Price/Book |
8.2 |
6.1 |
3.2 |
5.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Price/Sales |
3.8 |
2.9 |
2.2 |
3.3 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Price/Cash Flow |
13.2 |
0.6 |
13 |
11.6 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Dividend Yield % |
1.5 |
1.4 |
2.1 |
1.8 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
Source:http://financials.morningstar.com/valuation/price-ratio.html?t=AAPL®ion=usa&culture=en-US
Apple’s P/E ratio is higher than the industry average and indicating that the company will experience significant growth in future. That is why investing in Apple stocks will be a rational decision.
Market Conditions of USA stock market
The technology sector was the leading sector in the United States stocks for this first quarter of 2019. The technology sector achieved a growth of 20% during the period. In this regard, the tech giants Microsoft and Apple are the largest publically trading companies of the United States which grow more than 16% during the first quarter of 2019. However, Xerox was the best performer in the sector. The company achieved a 60% growth at the start of the year. These are the best performing stock in the US entire S&P 500.
Following
this, real estate, industrials and energy were the other top performing sectors
in US stock.
Moreover, the financial and healthcare
sectors were the biggest laggards in the entire S&P sectors of the United
States.
On the other hand, the Coty and Chipotle Mexican
Grills were was the best performer on the US’ stock level. Moreover global
stock has also achieved good results in the first quarter. In this regard, the
Irish shares heaving more than 30% growth which is more than the twice to the
yearly performance of S&P 500
Conclusion on USA stock market
From this research, it is concluded that
the macroeconomic circumstances have considerable influence on the performance
of the organisation because they influence the factors that are directly
associated with the business-related activities. Subsequently, from the
analysis of various organisations, it is found that the first quarter of 2019
appeared as a somehow challenging time for the many organisations including
Apple and Amazon because of the moderate stock performance. However, these
organisations always keep an eye on the market trends and this adaptive market
capability has made them survive even in the critical circumstances in the
market. Therefore, after all the necessary conditions of market Apple and
Amazon are now on the verge of improving their stock performance, and current
PE value has posted positive results as it is expected that the investors still
have excellent opportunities to do business with Apple and Amazon.
References of USA stock market
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APPLE Press Release. (2019). Apple
Reports First Quarter Results. Retrieved 2019, from
https://www.apple.com/newsroom/2019/01/apple-reports-first-quarter-results/
Clàudia Canals. (2019). What will be of
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from
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Imbert, F. (2019). US economy grows by
3.2% in the first quarter, topping expectations. Retrieved 2019, from
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Keoun, B. (2019). Federal Reserve
Signals Easier Path on Monetary Policy as Economy Slows. Retrieved 2019,
from
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lcirealty. (2019). Commercial Real
Estate Industry Forecast for 2019. Retrieved 2019, from
https://www.lcirealty.com/blog/2019-real-estate-forecast/
REUTERS. (2019). Auto sales in March and
first quarter down nearly across the board. Retrieved 2019, from
https://www.autoblog.com/2019/04/02/auto-sales-decline-march-first-quarter-2019/
Tradingeconomics. (2019). United States
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https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate
USIC. (2019). Current US Inflation
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https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/inflation/current-inflation-rates/
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Retrieved 2019, from
https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/UNIT/profile/?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmNvbS8&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAAIs2RgvMsyNdu4pRdeuyTFOoslxd0tvuypgwCvCg57kaOl525lUxKTZIOQJbhJe6-xTf93aYJ7tZT7ENevj-KxWzcy_K8AUa1KCm9jSkHS9Siuy8RQEy_Sd8Mgjr5xTh
YCHARTS. (2019). Amazon.com PE Ratio
(TTM):80.42 for April 30, 2019. Retrieved 2019, from https://ycharts.com/companies/AMZN/pe_ratio
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(TTM) Chart. Retrieved 2019, from
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