Assignment on Model for Hong Kong population

Abstract of Model for Hong Kong population

The research is about the Population model in Hong Kong for coming 30 years from 2020 to 2050. Now established the population models for Hong Kong according to the given data in the result sections. This research contains different chapters. Like in the chapter 1, introduction about the forecasting of population in the Hong Kong is elaborated by the population density, ethnicity e.t.c. Then the next chapter is about the populations methods. The main purpose of this research is established the population model, now there are different model for the forecasting population of Hong Kong. Then in the results section tables shows the population of Hong Kong for coming 30 years. Then the below plot for the population growth is also shown in the results section. After this discussing all the results and the MATALB coding for the forecasting of population of Hong Kong.  At the last of the research summarized all the results and concluded the research.

Different studies which has been evaluated, and the impact of differences in the population growth, population size on the forecasting of population accuracy. Because this study is based on the aggregate data, and also focused on the average errors for the different places by the particular sizes where the growth rate has the characteristics. The purpose of the research is to forecast the population of Hong Kong by using the nationality and regional gender based of population data. Both exponential as well as linear used to obtain the reliable estimations by the least forecasting error. By using the data of between 2020 and the 2050, forecast the population of distinct region where the Hong Kong population plus the overall population of the Hong Kong is evaluated. The below results shown as the population in 2020 is 7,496981 and in 2050 is 8041048.  Whereas the growth is expatriate population by the male workers as well as it will also dominate the population growth as shown in the MATLAB results. In Hong Kong for the population growth the indigenous fertility is not the primary reason.  For the population growth the primary sources in the Hong Kong is due to the increasing number of the workers (Wilson & et al, 2005).

For the understanding of the forecasting of future population growth is dynamics for the society and its plan is accordingly very important for the estimation of the future populations in the simple manners. According to the statistics, the Hong Kong experienced the incredible population growth in a last decades which is very favorable for the macroeconomic conditions along with the fertility of promoting the polices of government. Whereas the total population in 2020 is 7,496981 and in 2050 is 8041048. Among with the states of Hong Kong has the 6 administrative districts, and the population is concentrated as the costal sides of a country (Gulseven, 2016).

The research estimate the Hong Kong Future population along with the labor force through the development of the forecasting model of population. For the both urban as well as rural it combines the specific parameters according to the ages along with the transformations of the rural areas. The significant concern for the Hong Kong is the aging of a population in the coming 30 years it is due to the labor forces would constitute the supposed smaller proportion for the total population.

Method of Model for Hong Kong population

The projection of the population’s model created the adjustment which also produced the population forecast. Projection of population is also developed through the extending current as well as historical demographics along with the housing trends in the future. Population forecasting of Hong Kong needs the assumptions which is created regarding to the future population and changed , the adjusting models of projecting which also accounts the different  circumstance which perhaps has some past trends and it is also affect for the future change (Tayman & et al, 2011).

Model for forecasting of population

To develop the population for casting different types of the primary demographic models is used for the Hong Kong along with its sub-areas. For the Hong Kong along with its larger sub-areas where the populations is greater then the 8 million then the Cohort Component model is used. By its smaller sub-areas where the populations is smaller then the housing unit model is used. For the areas by large population, the Cohort Component model is the best prediction over the long terms. For the areas by smaller population, the housing unit model is the best prediction and it incorporates the current annual data which also accounts the more variability in the population growth (Pdx.Edu, 2019).

And there are different methods of extrapolation for the population data according to the gender nationality along with the decomposition based. Whereas the first method for the forecasting of population data is linear trend extrapolation, and it is also assumed the change of population by the same people like the change of population annual in the years (Snider, 20113).

There is the following forecasting model of population which is describing as below;

Cohort Component model

Linear trend extrapolation

Housing unit model

Exponential trend extrapolation

Linear Trend Extrapolation of Model for Hong Kong population

In the method of linear trend extrapolation the forecasting of future population is shown in the below equation;  

In above equation t shows the last years of base period and the f is presented the number of years. Here the   is the forecasting of population for the year . Shows the population of last years. And  population at the first years (Chen & et al, Asian Population Studies).

Exponential Trend Extrapolation of Model for Hong Kong population

In this method it suppose the population would change at same rate and annual in the bas period, where the exponential forecasting of this method is the future population and it is forecasted as in the below methods;

For the potential biasing and the accuracy of the forecasting of population this method is performing, by using the past data of population.

Cohort Component Model of Model for Hong Kong population

This model is developed for the every country along with for the larger sub areas. Then these types of forecast are 2020 based projections. Thus adjustments were created for the model to incorporate into the forecasting of the 2020-2050 which is also certified for the population estimations along with it is also captured the trends for the most recent data which is available.

For the future population forecasting the Cohort component model is used, and its outcomes for the life event which is also occurred by the time. All these type of events are also based upon the deaths, births along with the migrations. The forecasting of the population for future in the cohort component models is used;

This method is based on cohort component model and the availability of accuracy of data on gender and the age composition of the populations of areas (Smith & et al, 2013).

Housing Unit Model of Model for Hong Kong population:

In this model it is used for the preparation for forecasting for the smaller sub areas, and these methods needs the current housing inventory for every area which is compiled as well as the historical rate is changed on the every inventory. And this process sis also carried out for the coming years of interval by the forecasting periods (Pdx.Edu, 2019);

The data which used in a housing unit model from the 2020 and 2050 censuses of the housing and population from the historical data.

Result of Model for Hong Kong population

Table 1. Hong Kong population forecast by some researchers

After the analysis of the data, there are in above figure the forecasting of population of Hong Kong is done. Then By using the MATALB the population growth of the Hong Kong is determined in the above result 2. Then at the last the by using the logistic model the forecasting of the Hong population is determined and the code is shown in below appendix 3.

Conclusion of Model for Hong Kong population

Summing up all the discussion it is concluded that the forecasting of the Hong Kong population is determined by using the different methods, and the logistic model as shown in the result sections and the below appendix. All the requirements of research reports is fulfilled. To forecast the Hong Kong population the best extrapolation techniques for every segment of the data is used. In the result section it presented the, methods works very good for the regional analysis. For the Hong Kong along with its larger sub-areas where the populations is greater than the 8 million then the Cohort Component model is used.