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Intrinsic Value of Company

Category: Accounting & Finance Paper Type: Report Writing Reference: APA Words: 1000

 In accordance with the calculated free cash flows (FCF) of the year 2016 to 2021, we can say that the amount of free cash flows (FCF) is increasing gradually. Somehow, the rate of growth is decreasing with the passage of time. For instance, in beginning growth rate was 4% but later it was predicated and calculated as 1%. Increase in free cash flows (FCF) growth rate is also causing to bring changes in the intrinsic value of stock per share. Change in free cash flows (FCF) growth rate directly resulted in a decrease in the intrinsic value of stock per share. For instance, when free cash flows (FCF) growth rate was 4% then calculated the firm intrinsic value of stock per share was as 1019.67. The scenario analysis table in Appendix 1 is describing the above-discussed scenario.

Somehow at 1%, free cash flows (FCF) growth rate firm intrinsic value of stock per share is recorded as 673.913. In short, we can conclude that as a result of change in the free cash flows (FCF) growth rate firm intrinsic value of stock per share is overvalued. These changes are sensitive to the FCF growth rate as such changes can cause future changes in FCF and the overall firm also. Moreover, predicted stock value could be made equal to the actual market price of the stock through the change in free cash flow and firm intrinsic value. In accordance with the calculations, free cash flow greater than 7% or a firm intrinsic value of equity around 312819761 can make predicted stock value equal to the market and actual price of the stock. Changes in assets as fixed assets and current assets purchases can also bring changes in the overall equity of a company (Nicholson, 2011).

Equity Value Estimations of Intrinsic Value of Company

 In step 8, equity value estimations based on multiples conclude that at a certain rate results calculated from two approaches close to each other. Enterprise value related results predict that stock was undervalued. While on the other hand, multiple analysis also concludes that stock was undervalued. Only scenario analysis indicates that stock was overvalued rather than undervalued. Basically, change in these both results is caused by a change in the stock prices, the intrinsic value of firm equity and multiples. Excluding these, other factors such as the total number of shares of stock outstanding are the same over the period of time. Multiple analysis approach is supported by EBIT (Earning before interest and income tax) that can provide a comprehensive overview of the overall income and financial efficiency of the company in operations and handling cost-related factors. Other than shares outstanding, market value or prices of the stock is also the same in the given time duration. Multiple analysis approach has some limitations because of which we can say that the second approach is relatively better for the estimation of stock value. For instance, the negative value of Earning before interest and income tax expense (EBIT) can make multiples unable to provide realistic and reliable results of estimated stock value (Rappaport & Mauboussin, 2003). The multiple equity tables are included in Appendix 2

Suggestion to the Organization

In this case, EBIT is not a negative value. In fact, EBIT is increasing with the passage of time. Therefore, we can predict EBIT as a positive value for the future. Considering this we can say that multiples can provide reliable results of the estimated stock value in this case. Improvement in the capital structure, governance, and dividend policy can cause to increase firm equity value. The regression analysis has been performed to evaluate the relationship between two variables which were Km & Ks. The R square of the model is 0.32 which tell how much the independent variable is impacting the dependent variable the beta is 1.07 which is showing the level of risk. The company can increase equity value by managing dividend dates. No dividend policy and optimal dividend policy can make stock prices and firm equity stable. Corporate governance can increase equity value by minimizing agency costs and cost of capitals. Moreover, capital structure with limited debt can save a company from interest expense. Thus, the company can maximize profit margin.

References of Intrinsic Value of Company

Nicholson, C. (2011). Building Wealth in the Stock Market: A Proven Investment Plan for Finding the Best Stocks and Managing Risk. John Wiley & Sons.

Rappaport, A., & Mauboussin, M. J. (2003). Expectations Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns. Harvard Business Press.

 Appendix

Appendix 1

Scenario Analysis (that is, sensitivity analysis)

Average growth rate of FCF

 

1%

2%

3%

4%

Intrinsic Value of Equity

 

201742670.7

226032673.7

258761128.4

305249761.8

Total Numbers of Common Stocks Outstanding

 

299360

299360

299360

299360

Intrinsic Value of Stock Per Share

 

673.9132505

755.0530254

864.3811076

1019.674512

Actual Stock Price at the End of Fiscal Year 2018

 

1044.96

1044.96

1044.96

1044.96

Conclusion: Was the Stock Overvalued or Undervalued?

 

overvalued

overvalued

overvalued

overvalued

Appendix 2

Multiples Analysis:

Industry Enterprise Value/EBIT Multiple

31.93

Total Enterprise Value based on multiples

1002346560

Intrinsic Value of Equity based on multiples

1015097560

Average growth rate of FCF to achieve the multiples results:

7.45%

Total Numbers of Common Stocks Outstanding

299360

Intrinsic Value of Stock Per Share

3390.892437

Actual Stock Price at the End of Fiscal Year 2018

1044.96

Conclusion: Was the Stock Overvalued or Undervalued?

undervalued

Appendix 3

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics

Multiple R

0.57188645

R Square

0.327054112

Adjusted R Square

0.315248044

Standard Error

0.048658302

Observations

59

ANOVA

 

df

SS

MS

F

Significance F

Regression

1

0.06558858

0.065589

27.7022

2.23E-06

Residual

57

0.13495493

0.002368

Total

58

0.20054351

 

 

 

 

Coefficients

Standard Error

t Stat

P-value

Lower 95%

Upper 95%

Lower 95.0%

Upper 95.0%

Intercept

0.004593411

0.006462939

0.710731

0.480149

-0.00835

0.017535

-0.00835

0.017535

X Variable 1

1.073016313

0.203868047

5.263288

2.23E-06

0.664778

1.481255

0.664778

1.481255

 

 

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