In accordance with the
calculated free cash flows (FCF) of the year 2016 to 2021, we can say that the
amount of free cash flows (FCF) is increasing gradually. Somehow, the rate of
growth is decreasing with the passage of time. For instance, in beginning growth
rate was 4% but later it was predicated and calculated as 1%. Increase in free
cash flows (FCF) growth rate is also causing to bring changes in the intrinsic
value of stock per share. Change in free cash flows (FCF) growth rate directly
resulted in a decrease in the intrinsic value of stock per share. For instance,
when free cash flows (FCF) growth rate was 4% then calculated the firm
intrinsic value of stock per share was as 1019.67. The scenario analysis table
in Appendix 1 is describing the above-discussed scenario.
Somehow at 1%, free cash flows
(FCF) growth rate firm intrinsic value of stock per share is recorded as 673.913.
In short, we can conclude that as a result of change in the free cash flows
(FCF) growth rate firm intrinsic value of stock per share is overvalued. These
changes are sensitive to the FCF growth rate as such changes can cause future
changes in FCF and the overall firm also. Moreover, predicted stock value could
be made equal to the actual market price of the stock through the change in
free cash flow and firm intrinsic value. In accordance with the calculations,
free cash flow greater than 7% or a firm intrinsic value of equity around
312819761 can make predicted stock value equal to the market and actual price
of the stock. Changes in assets as fixed assets and current assets purchases
can also bring changes in the overall equity of a company (Nicholson,
2011).
Equity Value Estimations of Intrinsic Value of Company
In step 8, equity value estimations
based on multiples conclude that at a certain rate results calculated from two
approaches close to each other. Enterprise value related results predict that
stock was undervalued. While on the other hand, multiple analysis also
concludes that stock was undervalued. Only scenario analysis indicates that
stock was overvalued rather than undervalued. Basically, change in these both
results is caused by a change in the stock prices, the intrinsic value of firm
equity and multiples. Excluding these, other factors such as the total number
of shares of stock outstanding are the same over the period of time. Multiple
analysis approach is supported by EBIT (Earning before interest and income tax)
that can provide a comprehensive overview of the overall income and financial
efficiency of the company in operations and handling cost-related factors.
Other than shares outstanding, market value or prices of the stock is also the
same in the given time duration. Multiple analysis approach has some
limitations because of which we can say that the second approach is relatively
better for the estimation of stock value. For instance, the negative value of
Earning before interest and income tax expense (EBIT) can make multiples unable
to provide realistic and reliable results of estimated stock value (Rappaport
& Mauboussin, 2003). The multiple equity tables are
included in Appendix 2
Suggestion to the Organization
In this case, EBIT is not a negative value. In
fact, EBIT is increasing with the passage of time. Therefore, we can predict
EBIT as a positive value for the future. Considering this we can say that
multiples can provide reliable results of the estimated stock value in this
case. Improvement in the capital structure, governance, and dividend policy can
cause to increase firm equity value. The regression analysis has been performed
to evaluate the relationship between two variables which were Km & Ks. The
R square of the model is 0.32 which tell how much the independent variable is
impacting the dependent variable the beta is 1.07 which is showing the level of
risk. The company can increase equity value by managing dividend dates. No
dividend policy and optimal dividend policy can make stock prices and firm
equity stable. Corporate governance can increase equity value by minimizing
agency costs and cost of capitals. Moreover, capital structure with limited
debt can save a company from interest expense. Thus, the company can maximize
profit margin.
References of Intrinsic Value of Company
Nicholson, C. (2011). Building Wealth in the
Stock Market: A Proven Investment Plan for Finding the Best Stocks and
Managing Risk. John Wiley & Sons.
Rappaport, A., & Mauboussin, M. J. (2003). Expectations
Investing: Reading Stock Prices for Better Returns. Harvard Business
Press.
Appendix
Appendix 1
Scenario Analysis (that is, sensitivity analysis)
|
|
|
|
|
Average growth rate of FCF
|
|
1%
|
2%
|
3%
|
4%
|
Intrinsic Value of Equity
|
|
201742670.7
|
226032673.7
|
258761128.4
|
305249761.8
|
Total Numbers of Common Stocks
Outstanding
|
|
299360
|
299360
|
299360
|
299360
|
Intrinsic Value of Stock Per Share
|
|
673.9132505
|
755.0530254
|
864.3811076
|
1019.674512
|
Actual Stock Price at the End of Fiscal
Year 2018
|
|
1044.96
|
1044.96
|
1044.96
|
1044.96
|
Conclusion: Was the Stock Overvalued or
Undervalued?
|
|
overvalued
|
overvalued
|
overvalued
|
overvalued
|
Appendix 2
Multiples Analysis:
|
|
Industry Enterprise Value/EBIT Multiple
|
31.93
|
Total Enterprise Value based on
multiples
|
1002346560
|
Intrinsic Value of Equity based on
multiples
|
1015097560
|
Average growth rate of FCF to achieve
the multiples results:
|
|
7.45%
|
Total Numbers of Common Stocks
Outstanding
|
299360
|
Intrinsic Value of Stock Per Share
|
3390.892437
|
Actual Stock Price at the End of Fiscal
Year 2018
|
1044.96
|
Conclusion: Was the Stock Overvalued or
Undervalued?
|
undervalued
|
|
|
|
Appendix 3
SUMMARY OUTPUT
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Regression
Statistics
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Multiple
R
|
0.57188645
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
R
Square
|
0.327054112
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Adjusted
R Square
|
0.315248044
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Standard
Error
|
0.048658302
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Observations
|
59
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
ANOVA
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
df
|
SS
|
MS
|
F
|
Significance F
|
|
|
|
Regression
|
1
|
0.06558858
|
0.065589
|
27.7022
|
2.23E-06
|
|
|
|
Residual
|
57
|
0.13495493
|
0.002368
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total
|
58
|
0.20054351
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Coefficients
|
Standard
Error
|
t
Stat
|
P-value
|
Lower
95%
|
Upper
95%
|
Lower
95.0%
|
Upper
95.0%
|
Intercept
|
0.004593411
|
0.006462939
|
0.710731
|
0.480149
|
-0.00835
|
0.017535
|
-0.00835
|
0.017535
|
X
Variable 1
|
1.073016313
|
0.203868047
|
5.263288
|
2.23E-06
|
0.664778
|
1.481255
|
0.664778
|
1.481255
|