Report on Trend Analysis as a Branch of Intelligence

               The business dynamics continue to change in a variety of ways, and it is vital for the business organizations to look at these changes, analyze them, and make them part of their strategic planning. The success cannot be achieved by doing just basic things, but organizations have to go the extra mile to achieve long term success and a differentiated position in their industry. It is a fact that in the last few decades, different organizations from different industries have seen a lot of changes due to technological and other advancements. The business environment has been affected by various external forces, which have forced organizations to look for better options to stay competitive. There is a variety of developments, which happens in the industry; for instance, few developments will be short term and medium, whereas there will be other developments, which are long term. So, it is vital for organizations to foresee a future, which may provide opportunities for growth, but it can also have various challenges and threats to deal with. It is called foresight that organizations look for things, which have not yet happened, but they are assuming it by analyzing trends and changes (Ruff, 2006)

               The future is not an easy thing to predict in the business landscape, because so many things are happening all the time. The business organizations must prepare themselves for the future with the help of foresight, as well as, trendspotting. There can be several risks ahead, and they can only be handled or mitigated, if organizations have taken measures for better preparation to move forward in the right direction. The foresight helps organizations to make more informed decisions, having the ability to predict various aspects of the future. It is such a vital thing to do because an unpredictable future is never a good thing for any organization. Unpredictability can lead to success in exceptional cases, but it is not the recommended path to move into the future. There are a variety of methods and techniques, which organizations can use to foresight the future, and develop relevant trends for the success of their business on a long term basis. It is important to mention here that trendspotting will be considered a part of organizing foresight for an organization because these trends are useful and informative in strategy planning (Stanford, 2010). In this paper, the focus will be given to an automotive organization, how an automotive company can use different methods of foresight and trendspotting to better prepare for the future.

Models & Methods of Foresight and Trendspotting

               There are so many models and methods developed over the years, which can be used for foresight in general, and trendspotting in particular. Here, two methods/models will be discussed along with their strengths and weaknesses.

1. Megatrend Analysis of Trend Analysis as a Branch of Intelligence

               It is one of the easiest and more common methods of foresight, especially helping business firms in trendspotting. Any business industry has different development tendencies, which are evident to spot with the help of megatrend analysis. These megatrends can also be spotted by looking at historical footprints, like what changes have been happening in demographics, how the population has grown, and what changes were considered in economic terms. It is vital to understand that megatrends can happen at different levels. For instance, at the industry level, a company will look at recent developments or change made by competitors, and what trends are on top in the industry. On the other hand, the labor market, as well as consumers, will have their own trends to show for any particular industry. Keeping an automotive company in context, it is important for the company to analyze how trends are changing in the industry, and what major changes are made by other companies in the production of their vehicles. For instance, there could be a trend, where companies are focusing on producing electric vehicles, because consumer trends are changing, and they are looking for more energy-efficient and environment-friendly options. Few companies use trendspotting for developing new products, where some other companies use it to make considerable changes in their existing products. The decision can only be made when megatrends will be analyzed and relevant trends will be identified (Dannemand & Rasmussen, 2014)

Strengths & Weaknesses of Trend Analysis as a Branch of Intelligence

               It is a fact that every concept can have its own strengths and weaknesses, and an organization should always keep both in mind when using certain models or methods for trendspotting. The great strength of megatrend analysis is that it allows companies to develop their future strategy because shift or change in behavior at industry and market-level is identified. The companies get to know what trends are in, and what trends are getting out of fashion. They are also able to identify trends adopted by consumers, like what is being preferred by them, and are this shift in preference large enough to develop a strategy accordingly? Megatrend analysis also helps to identify the latest technologies and innovations, which are used in making products, to attract more customers. For instance, it was mentioned earlier that the trend of consumers is switching to electric vehicles, instead of fuel-based vehicles. It helps to shape the future with some considerable prediction of future threats, as well as, opportunities. One good example is Kodak to understand the importance of megatrend analysis. Kodak was the world’s number one company in camera and photography business. But they failed to maintain this position because they ignored megatrend of digital photography, and other companies capture the opportunity and replaced Kodak (Evans, 2017). On the other hand, the weakness of megatrend analysis is that it is hard to quantify, how stable one trend is, and whether it will sustain for a long time or short time.

2. Generic Foresight Process Framework

               It is one of the important frameworks for foresight and trendspotting for organizations because it works in different phases to foresee future elements associated with a business. In the first phase of this framework, things are analyzed by looking at certain inputs. These inputs try to look at trends like what is happening in the industry and market. A detailed analysis is made for a proper foresight by finding answers for different important questions. The analysis tries to look at assumptions like what looks like to be happening, and what is actually happening in the market. Looking at both of these elements, then it is determined what is going to happen due to recent developments and changes. When a company has analyzed all the inputs, it is time for them to enter into the next phase of output where they define their strategic direction, like what they need to do after looking at different happening trends. They analyze their own process to see what changes are needed in their existing processes, and what processes are needed to follow for a better future in a competitive environment. It is vital to mention here that making outputs is not an easy thing, but it is the most important thing because business strategy and policy will be based on this aspect. One more important thing to notice in this framework is its explanation to show that foresight always comes before making any strategic decisions. It shows the importance of foresight and trendspotting because whatever has been foresighted, it is going to be part of the long term strategy (Conway, n.d.)

Strengths & Weaknesses of Trend Analysis as a Branch of Intelligence

               There so many good things to talk about generic foresight process framework. It not only works as a trendspotting tool, but it also works as a diagnostic tool, which diagnosis the situation and business environment like what is actually happening, and what needs to be done to deal with these happenings. When it is said, “what is happening”, it means what changes or developments are happening in an industry. What trends are on the top, which trends are not getting the attention of consumers? It also helps to identify what is happening in terms of competition like what trends are adopted by competitors, and how they are able to gain competitive advantage. Once the diagnosis is done, the framework also works as a design tool to determine the future design of strategy. It means the framework also helps in making viable strategic decisions. The information gathered by this framework is useful in making informed decisions, where a direction is predicted by an organization. For instance, if an automotive company will use a generic foresight process, then it will get to know, what is happening in local, as well as, global automotive industry, which trends are dominating the industry, and what future looks to be. There is no specific weakness to discuss regarding generic foresight process, but it can be said that it is a bit limited in scope, because it has not focused on trends specifically as other trendspotting tools do (Voros, 2003)

Stakeholders in Foresight and Trendspotting

               It is important to know that the foresight process is a combined effort, where many stakeholders should be involved in the process so that a better policy is derived after the practice of foresight through any particular method. There are various decision-makers, who are involved in the process like top management has to give permissions to lower management for any foresight analysis, as the authority given from top management will provide budget and resources. Moreover, employees are also important stakeholders, because they are the ones, who deal with several business processes, so they should be included in the process to help in making informed decisions. They can help to identify any issues or loopholes in the process, as well as, elaborate things regarding any requirement of innovation and technology. The company should also get feedback from their customers to know about their perspective on products and future developments (OECD, 2019)

Amount of Time dedicated to Foresight and Trendspotting

               The companies should understand that there is no specific time given for foresight and trendspotting because every business firm has different dynamics along with changing dynamics of the whole industry. So, it is vital for companies to understand that they certainly need good enough time for analyzing trends by gathering relevant information, and then making future decisions on the basis of gathered data. It means that whatever time is needed for each firm, it should be spent properly without compromising on the quality of the analysis. The companies can’t rush with this process, because such effort can be devastating as it may come up with wrong analysis, and if decisions will be made on wrong data, then consequences can be severe. It is evident to say that companies should allocate enough amount of time for the whole foresight process to complete so that relevant trends are spotted, and then decisions are made accordingly (Giaoutzi & Sapio, 2012)

Conclusion of Trend Analysis as a Branch of Intelligence

               After looking at concepts of foresight and trendspotting along with relevant methods/models, it can be said that whole foresight in general and trendspotting in particular is very important thing for companies to make informed decisions, as well as, for deriving a well-thought strategy, which is going to be used for long term. It is up to the choice of each company, what foresight and trendspotting model/method they want to use for their analysis because each company can have its own requirements and dynamics to deal with. Whatever the situation is, foresight will help to analyze trends, and companies will be able to avoid any threats, and will also find considerable opportunities.

References of Trend Analysis as a Branch of Intelligence

Conway, M. (n.d.). An Overview of Foresight Methodologies. Thinking Futures, 1-10.

Dannemand, A. P., & Rasmussen, B. (2014). Introduction to foresight and foresight processes in practice - Note for the PhD course Strategic Foresight in Engineering. Retrieved January 9, 2020, from https://backend.orbit.dtu.dk/ws/portalfiles/portal/96941116/Introduction_to_foresight.pdf

Evans, M. (2017). How Companies Can Use Megatrends Analysis To Anticipate Long-Term Societal Shifts. Retrieved January 9, 2020, from https://www.forbes.com/sites/michelleevans1/2017/09/07/how-companies-can-use-megatrend-analysis-to-anticipate-long-term-societal-shifts/#5e7e5a65626a

Giaoutzi, M., & Sapio, B. (2012). Recent Developments in Foresight Methodologies (illustrated Edition ed.). Springer Science & Business Media.

OECD. (2019). Strategic Foresight for Better Policies. Retrieved January 9, 2020, from https://www.oecd.org/strategic-foresight/ourwork/Strategic%20Foresight%20for%20Better%20Policies.pdf

Ruff, F. (2006). Corporate foresight: integrating the future business environment into innovation and strategy. Int. J. Technology Management, 34(3/4).

Stanford, N. (2010). Trend spotting and foresight. Retrieved January 9, 2020, from https://naomistanford.com/2010/09/21/trend-spotting-and-foresight/

Voros, J. (2003). A generic foresight process framework. Foresight, 5(3), 10-21.