Table 1: Cash flows
of the project
Year
|
Cash flow (£)
|
0
|
(45,000)
|
1
|
14,000
|
2
|
16,000
|
3
|
17,000
|
4
|
20,000
|
Table 2: Risk and
Return
|
Expected
Return
|
Standard
Deviation
|
Beta
|
Brad
Co.
|
16. 30
%
|
30%
|
1.3
|
FTSE
500
|
13%
|
12%
|
|
Risk
Free Asset
|
2%
|
0%
|
|
Using the provided information in Table 2 and
assuming that CAPM holds:
1-
Calculate
the expected return of the firm.
Using the CAPM model the expected return of the firm is
calculated:
Calculation suggests that expected return for Brad Co. is
around 16.30%.
2-
Using the
estimated expected return, evaluate the project using the following criteria
(Table 3) and decide if you accept/reject the project based on each criterion
(the last column of Table 3).
Table 3: Project
criteria
Criteria
|
Value
|
Managers’ Threshold
|
Accept/Reject
|
NPV
|
0
|
|
Reject
|
IRR
|
17%
|
|
Reject
|
Payback Period (PB)
|
|
2.5 year
|
Accept
|
Discounted Payback Period (DPB)
|
|
4 year
|
Accept
|
Profitability Index (PI)
|
|
0.5
|
Reject
|
3-
Please provide
the NPV profile of the project. (5
marks)
The following graph and table represent the
NPV profile of the project.
3)
|
NPV Profile
|
|
|
Year
|
Cash Flow
|
DR
|
NPV of Project
|
0
|
-45,000
|
|
|
1
|
14,000
|
5%
|
94643
|
2
|
16,000
|
10%
|
36718
|
3
|
17,000
|
15%
|
32535
|
4
|
20,000
|
20%
|
34775
|
4-
Considering the
estimated criteria, provide your insight about this project as an independent
analyst. (5
marks)
Based on the calculation of expected return it can be said that the
project is beneficial for the company as it can generate a higher return. While
the NPV value is “0” that should be greater than “0”. Moreover, the IRR value
is 17% as calculated by the use of project cash flows. While an ideal IRR
should be between 12 %-15%. Thus, considering this internal rate of the return
value is greater than the requirement. Although, the Payback period is short so
the project is acceptable. Similarly, the discounted payback period is also
less than 5 so it's good it accepts it. Somehow, the probability index is just
limited to 0.5 only. It is lower than the lowest acceptable measure of
probability index value "1.0".
Question 2 (15 marks)
You work as a financial analyst in Brad Co. Mr John Merton is a new
client who is interested to invest for his future. He wants some help in terms
of personal financing. He is risk-taker, 35-year-old, and has 25 years to
retirement.
a)
Explain to
him what are the main processes of personal finance planning? (5 marks)
The personal
finance planning is a process through which a person can manage his money in
such a way that return him a better return in future. Any person having extra
money as the saving can invest his amount in various investment products and
money market opportunities to increase this amount and earn a return on his
investment. Keeping money in safe and lockers cannot be double. While a wise
investment of this saving can sometimes double it in a short time period.
Personal finance planning enables a person to find such attractive
opportunities which can be considered as safe investment opportunities with
lower risk factor and higher expected return in future.
b)
Considering
the characteristics of Mr Merton, what are your suggestion as investments
options for investment in the money market and capital market? (10 marks)
Considering the characteristics of Mr Merton I would suggest them to
invest money in the money market and capital market instead of keeping it as
saving in his locker. Mr Merton is not retired yet, therefore, he still has the
opportunity to invest this money in higher return generating investment
products even some of these have a higher risk factor. Following my experience, a person with a saving of his retirement
pension should invest his money in the money market especially banks to have a
fixed return or income for daily requirements and expenditures. However, people
eager for risky investment and interested in higher return should invest int
the capital markets.
Considering his
characteristics I would suggest him to buy shares of a higher return generating
company. However, he should also analysis the stock price volatility and
previous return calculations before making an investment in any company.
Although, rather than investing all amount in a single company he should invest
in different companies thus he can diversify risk factor from his investment
portfolio. Moreover, I
would also suggest him to buy some corporate bonds with a higher interest rate
and treasury bills with a lower risk factor to have better investment return.
Question 3
Company1: Merck & Co. Inc.
Company 2: Microchip Technology Incorporated (50 marks)
a)
Collect the weekly share price data
(adjusted close) of companies assigned to you and the price data for the
S&P500 market index for the period of one year. Calculate the weekly
returns and graph the returns of the share prices and the index over the
period (assume no dividends). Interpret the graph.
In the above-represented graph, the blue line is
representing the weekly return of the S&P 500 index. While orange and white
colours are projecting the weekly return values of Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK)
and Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP) respectively. The data used to calculate weekly return is
obtained from yahoo finance (from May 2019 to May 2020). According to the
graph, the weekly return of both companies is almost aligned with the industry
return which indicates that companies are working well. However, Microchip
Technology Incorporated is comparatively performing better than Merck & Co.
Inc and the overall market. At some points [week 42 to 29] company generated
return many times greater than the market average return and weekly return of
Merck & Co. Inc.
b)
Is there any market or industry-specific factors
that you think explain the share price movement of your companies over the
period of one year? (10
marks)
Industry and external environmental factors draw impact
on the share prices movement of a company over some specific time duration.
However, in this case, it seems that the external environment and
industry-specific factors were favourable for both of these companies. The
weekly return values are overall increased over the one-year duration. Even the
external environmental factor spread of COVID 19 have not drawn a negative
impact on the share prices of these companies.
c)
Calculate the average weekly returns and the
standard deviation of the 2 companies and the index over the last year. Which
of the companies has a higher risk? Which factors specific to that company
might explain the fact that the company has a higher risk? (You need to do the
procedure in excel and them to the word file) (20 marks)
The following table represents the average weekly return and
standard deviation of the companies over the one-year duration.
Average Weekly Return
|
S&P 500
|
0.000882919
|
MRK
|
0.001161575
|
MCHP
|
0.001368314
|
|
|
Standard
Deviation
|
S&P 500
|
0.039388323
|
MRK
|
0.03344554
|
MCHP
|
0.06528641
|
Based on the above table, the average weekly return of Merck &
Co. Inc. (MRK) is greater than the average weekly returns of Microchip
Technology Incorporated and S&P 500 market index. While standard deviation
value is highest for Microchip Technology Incorporated. Such a situation
indicates that return values highly fluctuate for Microchip Technology
Incorporated over the selected time period. High volatility and frequently
changing share prices represent a greater risk factor for investors.
Conclusively, Microchip Technology Incorporated (MCHP) have a greater risk
factor than Merck & Co. Inc. (MRK) and S&P 500 market index.