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A group of medical professionals is considering the construction

13/10/2021 Client: muhammad11 Deadline: 2 Day

Individual Assignment 6610 A) (20%) A Group Of Medical Professionals Is Considering The Construction Of A Private Clinic. If The Medical Demand Is High The Physician Could Realize A Net Profit Of $100,000. If The Market Is Not Favourable They Could Lose $

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Individual Assignment 6610

a) (20%) A group of medical professionals is considering the construction of a private clinic. If the medical demand is high the physician could realize a net profit of $100,000. If the market is not favourable they could lose $40,000. Their best guess is 50%-50% for the clinic to be successful. Construct the decision tree. EMV=Expected Monetary Value(

b) (50%) The same physicians above have been approached by a market research company that offered to perform a study at a fee of $5,000. Using the Bayes’ theorem they make the following probabilities:

Favorable market given a favorable study = .82

Unfavorable market given a favorable study = .18

Favorable market given unfavorable study = .11

Probability of favorable research study = .55

Probability of unfavorable research study = .45

Develop the decision tree to reflect the probabilities above

c) (10%) Describe how you would determine the best decision using EMV criterion with a decision tree.

d) (10%) What is the purpose of the utility theory?

e) (10%) What information should be included into the decision tree?

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