Absolute purchasing power parity ppt

International Finance Multiple Choice

Multinational Financial Management

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CHAPTER 4
PARITY CONDITIONS AND
CURRENCY FORECASTING

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CHAPTER OVERVIEW
I. ARBITRAGE AND THE LAW OF

ONE PRICE

II. PURCHASING POWER PARITY

III. THE FISHER EFFECT

IV. THE INTERNATIONAL FISHER EFFECT

V. INTEREST RATE PARITY THEORY

VI. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE FORWARD AND FUTURE SPOT RATE

VII. CURRENCY FORECASTING

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PART I. ARBITRAGE AND THE LAW OF ONE PRICE

I. THE LAW OF ONE PRICE

A. Law states:

Identical goods sell for the same price worldwide.

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ARBITRAGE AND THE LAW OF ONE PRICE

B. Theoretical basis:

If the price after exchange-rate

adjustment were not equal, arbitrage in the goods worldwide ensures eventually it will.

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ARBITRAGE AND THE LAW OF ONE PRICE

C. Five Parity Conditions Result From These Arbitrage Activities

1. Purchasing Power Parity (PPP)

2. The Fisher Effect (FE)

3. The International Fisher Effect

(IFE)

4. Interest Rate Parity (IRP)

5. Unbiased Forward Rate (UFR)

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ARBITRAGE AND THE LAW OF ONE PRICE

D. Five Parity Conditions Linked by

1. The adjustment of various

rates and prices to inflation.

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ARBITRAGE AND THE LAW OF ONE PRICE

2. The notion that money should have no effect on real variables (since they have been adjusted for price changes).

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ARBITRAGE AND THE LAW OF ONE PRICE

E. Inflation and home currency depreciation:

1. jointly determined by the growth of domestic money supply;

2. Relative to the growth of

domestic money demand.

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ARBITRAGE AND THE LAW OF ONE PRICE

F. THE LAW OF ONE PRICE

- enforced by international

arbitrage.

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PART II. PURCHASING POWER PARITY

I. THE THEORY OF PURCHASING

POWER PARITY:

states that spot exchange rates between currencies will change to the differential in inflation rates between countries.

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PURCHASING POWER PARITY

II. ABSOLUTE PURCHASING

POWER PARITY

A. Price levels adjusted for

exchange rates should be

equal between countries

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PURCHASING POWER PARITY

II. ABSOLUTE PURCHASING

POWER PARITY

B. One unit of currency has same purchasing power globally.

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PURCHASING POWER PARITY

III. RELATIVE PURCHASING POWER PARITY

A. states that the exchange rate of one currency against another will adjust to reflect changes in the price levels of the two countries.

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PURCHASING POWER PARITY

1. In mathematical terms:

where et = future spot rate

e0 = spot rate

ih = home inflation

if = foreign inflation

t = the time period

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PURCHASING POWER PARITY

2. If purchasing power parity is

expected to hold, then the best

prediction for the one-period

spot rate should be

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PURCHASING POWER PARITY

3. A more simplified but less precise relationship is

that is, the percentage change should be approximately equal to the inflation rate differential.

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PURCHASING POWER PARITY

4. PPP says

the currency with the higher inflation rate is expected to depreciate relative to the currency with the lower rate of inflation.

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PURCHASING POWER PARITY

B. Real Exchange Rates:

the quoted or nominal rate adjusted for a country’s inflation rate is

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PURCHASING POWER PARITY

C. Real exchange rates

1. If exchange rates adjust to inflation differential, PPP states that real exchange rates stay the same.

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PURCHASING POWER PARITY

C. Real exchange rates

2. Competitive positions:

domestic and foreign firms

are unaffected.

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PART III.
THE FISHER EFFECT (FE)

I. THE FISHER EFFECT

states that nominal interest rates (r) are a function of the real interest rate (a) and a premium (i) for inflation expectations.

R = a + i

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THE FISHER EFFECT

B. Real Rates of Interest

1. Should tend toward equality

everywhere through arbitrage.

2. With no government interference nominal rates vary by inflation differential or

rh - rf = ih - if

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THE FISHER EFFECT

C. According to the Fisher Effect,

countries with higher inflation rates have higher interest rates.

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THE FISHER EFFECT

D. Due to capital market integration globally, interest rate differentials are eroding.

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PART IV. THE INTERNATIONAL
FISHER EFFECT (IFE)

I. IFE STATES:

A. the spot rate adjusts to the interest rate differential between two countries.

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THE INTERNATIONAL FISHER EFFECT

IFE = PPP + FE

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THE INTERNATIONAL FISHER EFFECT

B. Fisher postulated

1. The nominal interest rate differential should reflect the inflation rate differential.

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THE INTERNATIONAL FISHER EFFECT

B. Fisher postulated

2. Expected rates of return are equal in the absence of government intervention.

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THE INTERNATIONAL FISHER EFFECT

C. Simplified IFE equation:

(if rf is relatively small)

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THE INTERNATIONAL FISHER EFFECT

D. Implications of IFE

1. Currency with the lower interest rate expected to appreciate relative to one

with a higher rate.

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THE INTERNATIONAL FISHER EFFECT

D. Implications of IFE

2. Financial market arbitrage:

insures interest rate differential is an unbiased predictor of change in future spot rate.

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PART VI. INTEREST RATE PARITY THEORY

I. INTRODUCTION

A. The Theory states:

the forward rate (F) differs from the spot rate (S) at equilibrium by an amount equal to the interest differential (rh - rf) between two countries.

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INTEREST RATE PARITY THEORY

2. The forward premium or

discount equals the interest

rate differential.

(F - S)/S = (rh - rf)

where rh = the home rate

rf = the foreign rate

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INTEREST RATE PARITY THEORY

3. In equilibrium, returns on

currencies will be the same

i. e. No profit will be realized

and interest parity exists

which can be written

(1 + rh) = F

(1 + rf) S

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INTEREST RATE PARITY THEORY

B. Covered Interest Arbitrage

1. Conditions required:

interest rate differential does

not equal the forward premium or discount.

2. Funds will move to a country

with a more attractive rate.

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INTEREST RATE PARITY THEORY

3. Market pressures develop:

a. As one currency is more demanded spot and sold forward.

b. Inflow of fund depresses interest rates.

c. Parity eventually reached.

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INTEREST RATE PARITY THEORY

C. Summary:

Interest Rate Parity states:

1. Higher interest rates on a

currency offset by forward discounts.

2. Lower interest rates are offset by forward premiums.

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PART VI. THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN THE
FORWARD AND THE FUTURE SPOT RATE

I. THE UNBIASED FORWARD RATE

A. States that if the forward rate is unbiased, then it should reflect the expected future spot rate.

B. Stated as

ft = et

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PART VI. CURRENCYFORECASTING

I. FORECASTING MODELS

A. Created to forecast exchange rates in addition to parity conditions.

B. Two types of forecast:

1. Market-based

2. Model-based

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CURRENCY FORECASTING

MARKET-BASED FORECASTS:

derived from market indicators.

A. The current forward rate contains implicit information about exchange rate changes for one year.

B. Interest rate differentials may be used to predict exchange rates beyond one year.

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CURRENCY FORECASTING

MODEL-BASED FORECASTS:

include fundamental and technical analysis.

A. Fundamental relies on key macroeconomic variables and policies which most like affect exchange rates.

B. Technical relies on use of

1. Historical volume and price data

2. Charting and trend analysis

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