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The Bubble Up Bottling Company of Brussels, Belgium, is interested in forecasting regional sales of Bubble Up over the next two years. The company has analyzed Bubble Up’s market share for its region over the past twenty quarters. Market share has generally been growing as indicated in the following table:
Year Season Bubble Up’s Market Share (in %)
1 Winter 6.42
1 Spring 6.58
1 Summer 6.99
1 Fall 6.82
2 Winter 6.64
2 Spring 6.46
2 Summer 6.70
2 Fall 7.00
3 Winter 6.70
3 Spring 6.84
3 Summer 6.78
3 Fall 6.48
4 Winter 6.93
4 Spring 6.79
4 Summer 6.83
4 Fall 7.21
5 Winter 7.73
5 Spring 8.16
5 Summer 8.36
5 Fall 8.23
During the same five-year period, total soft drink sales in the region (as measured in 100,000s of cases) have been as follows:
Year Season Sales in Region (in 100,000s of cases)
1 Winter 114
1 Spring 130
1 Summer 158
1 Fall 131
2 Winter 114
2 Spring 146
2 Summer 177
2 Fall 142
3 Winter 124
3 Spring 151
3 Summer 175
3 Fall 146
4 Winter 132
4 Spring 160
4 Summer 184
4 Fall 144
5 Winter 134
5 Spring 166
5 Summer 205
5 Fall 148
The company wants to forecast sales for the next two years (6 and 7).
Calculate forecast for soft drink industry by using classical decomposition.
Calculate Bubble Up Company's market share of the industry sales using linear regression model.
Calculate Bubble Up company's forecast by taking market share percent of the industry sales. For example, if the industry sales for a quarter are 100,000 units and Bubble Up market share for the same quarter is 7%, then Bubble Up sales forecast for that quarter will be 7,000 units.
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