Capturing the world's emerging middle class

Capturing the world’s emerging middle class David Court and Laxman Narasimhan Multinational companies need new “scale at speed” approaches to penetrate the developing world’s increasingly prosperous consumer markets. The rapidly growing ranks of middle-class consumers span a dozen emerging nations, not just the fast-growing BRIC countries,1 and include almost two billion people, spending a total of $6.9 trillion annually. Our research suggests that this figure will rise to $20 trillion during the next decade—about twice the current consumption in the United States. David Court is a director in McKinsey’s Dallas office, and Laxman Narasimhan is a director in the Delhi office. These new spenders offer an opportunity for early winners to gain lasting advantages, just as companies in Europe and the United States did at similar points in their development. In 17 product categories in the United States, for example, we found that the market leader in 1925 remained the number-one or numbertwo player for the rest of the century. These companies include Kraft Foods (Nabisco), which led in biscuits; Del Monte Foods, in canned fruit; and Wrigley, in chewing gum. Despite having strong global brands, multinational companies face challenging competition in emerging markets, as these economies already boast aggressive local players that have captured a significant portion of spending. Chinese beverage maker Hangzhou Wahaha, for example, has built 2 a $5.2 billion business against global competitors such as Coca-Cola and PepsiCo by targeting rural areas, filling product gaps that meet local needs, keeping costs low, and appealing to patriotism. Further complicating matters is the fact that the multinationals’ business models are based on practices established in the markets of the developed world, where the game is won slowly by finding cost savings and making product improvements that capture single percentage points of market share over time. Among emerging markets, perhaps only China can provide enough short-term growth to justify that strategy. Meeting the needs of most consumers in emerging markets requires a different course, which often elicits anguished cries in the corridors of the multinationals: “You want me to change my business model and go across the world for $50 million in revenue?” It’s an understandable lament for executives who not only fear ending up with little to show for their efforts but also are wary of the battles already under way among emerging-market champions.