Carpet city outlet

1. The manager of the Carpet City outlet needs to make an accurate forecast of the demand for Soft Shag carpet (its biggest seller). If the manager does not order enough carpet from the carpet mill, customer will buy their carpet from one of Carpet City’s many competitors. The manager has collected the following demand data for the past 8 months: Month Demand for Soft Shag Carpet (1,000 yd.) 1 10 2 9 3 8 4 9 5 10 6 12 7 14 8 11

a. Compute a 3-month moving average forecast for months 4 through 9.

b. Compute a weighted 3-month moving average forecast for months 4 through 9. Assign weights of 0.55, 0.35, and 0.10 to the months in sequence, starting with the most recent month.

c. Compare the two forecasts by using MAD. Which forecast appears to be more accurate?

2. The manager of the Petroco Service Station wants to forecast the demand for unleaded gasoline next month so that the proper number of gallons can be ordered from the distributor. The owner has accumulated the following data on demand for unleaded gasoline from sales during the past 10 months: Month Gasoline Demanded (gal.) October 775 November 835 December 605 January 450 February 600 March 700 April 820 May 925 June July 1500 1200

a. Compute an exponential smoothed forecast, using an α value of 0.4

b. Compute the MAD.

3. Emily Andrews has invested in a science and technology mutual fund. Now she is considering liquidating and investing in another fund. She would like to forecast the price of the science and technology fund for the next month before making a decision. She has collected the following data on the average price of the fund during the past 20 months: