Children's auditory performance scale

MGIMO University November 2007© 2007 G. Matthew BonhamLecture 1The “Gold Standard”: Rational Actor ModelResourcesKahler, Miles. "Rationality in International Relations," International Organization, 52.4: 919-941. About the AuthorThe “Main Idea”: Assumptions of rational behavior permeate all IR theory (American perspective!): realist, neorealist, psychological (emphasis on limited rationality), organizational (collective bargaining dynamics) and approaches emphasizing culture-norms-identity.The most compelling and widespread model of decision-making is the rational actor model. This model permeates all of social science, especially economic theory. You need to understand the rational actor model to critique it. What does it mean to be rational?Logical DispassionateSatisfy one’s needs by maximizingbenefits and minimizing costsImplies perfect information about the consequences of certain choicesSteps for Rational Decision-Making:1.Identify goals and prioritize them2.Search for alternatives3.Predict the consequences of each alternative4.Evaluate each alternative in terms of your goals 5.Select the alternative that maximizes your valuesWhat do people really do when making decisions?Ask someone you trust (mostly likely will produce an outcome based on other person’s goal)Responding to advertising
MGIMO University November 2007© 2007 G. Matthew BonhamAskyour spouse/partner; compromise (usually as part of the goal-forming process)Rational only describes the decision-making process, not the values or outcome. Lecture Notes:Rational Calculations for Hostage Crisis(MSPowerPoint 126KB) Normal Utility Maximizing Function: E(U) = sum of P VE(U)1 is the expected utility of alternative 1N is the number of possible outcomesViis the value of the ith outcome affected by the alternativePiis the probability that the alternative will result in the outcomeSum the values of the expected value of all the outcomes times the probability of each outcome. Reagan’s Hostage Crisis 1.Sell Arms to Iran2.Rescue Mission3.Third Party4.Do NothingOutcomes from Alternative 1: V x P = UHostages are Released: + 80 x .6 = +48Improve Relations with Iran: + 50 x .9 = +45Help Freedom Fighters (Contras): + 20 x .3 = +6Harm Terrorism Policy (if discovered): -100 x .2 = -20TOTAL UTILITY ofAlternative1 = 79(48+45+6-20)Going through the exercise in practice reveals the difficulty, both in quantifying goals and priorities and in estimating probability. The Reagan Administration grossly overestimated their ability to keep this a secret, and when it went public, it did a great deal of harm to the Administration and to US terrorism policy. Why is it difficult? Different people have different priorities, goals, calculations of probabilitiesDecisions are made in a bureaucratic environment where many actors tend to prefer the status quoConsequences in foreign policy are difficult to predict