Foundations of abstract mathematics kurtz pdf

How to Think about Weird Things

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How to Think about Weird Things Critical Thinking for a New Age

SEVENTH EDITION

Theodore Schick, Jr. Muhlenberg College

Lewis Vaughn

Foreword by Martin Gardner

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HOW TO THINK ABOUT WEIRD THINGS: CRITICAL THINKING FOR A NEW AGE, SEVENTH EDITION

Published by McGraw-Hill, a business unit of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., 1221 Avenue of the Americas, New York, NY, 10020. Copyright © 2014 by The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc. All rights reserved. Printed in the United States of America. Previous editions © 2007, 2004, and 2001. No part of this publication may be reproduced or distributed in any form or by any means, or stored in a database or retrieval system, without the prior written consent of The McGraw-Hill Companies, Inc., including, but not limited to, in any network or other electronic storage or transmission, or broadcast for distance learning.

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To Erin, Kathy, Katie, Marci, Patrick, and T. J.

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Foreword

Every year, in English-speaking countries alone, more than a hundred books that promote the wildest forms of bogus science and the para- normal are published. The percentage of Americans today who take astrology seriously is larger than the percentage of people who did so in the early Middle Ages, when leading church theologians—Saint Augustine, for example—gave excellent reasons for considering astrol- ogy nonsense. We pride ourselves on our advanced scientific technol- ogy, yet public education in science has sunk so low that one-fourth of Americans and 55 percent of teenagers, not to mention a recent pres- ident of the nation and his first lady, believe in astrology!

Now and then a courageous publisher, more concerned with enlightening the public than with profits, will issue a book that hon- estly assesses pseudoscience and the paranormal. Works of this sort now in print can be counted on your fingers. It is always an occasion for rejoicing when such a book appears, and there are several ways in which How to Think about Weird Things is superior to most books designed to teach readers how to tell good science from bad.

First of all, this book covers an enormous range of bogus sciences and extraordinary claims that currently enjoy large followings in Amer- ica. Second, unlike most similar books, the authors heavily stress prin- ciples that help you critically evaluate outlandish claims—and tell you why these principles are so important. Third, the book’s discussions are readable, precise, and straightforward.

I am particularly pleased by the book’s clearheaded assessment of scientific realism at a time when it has become fashionable in New Age circles to think of the laws of science as not “out there,” but some- how a projection of our minds and cultures. Yes, quantum mechanics has its subjective tinge. There is a sense in which an electron’s prop- erties are not definite until it is measured, but this technical aspect of quantum theory has no relevance on the macroscopic level of every- day life. In no way does the mathematical formalism of quantum mechanics imply, as some physicists smitten by Eastern religions claim, that the moon is not there unless someone looks at it. As Einstein liked to ask, Will a mouse’s observation make the moon real?

The authors give clear, accurate explanations of puzzling physi- cal theories. Quantum theory indeed swarms with mind-boggling experiments that are only dimly understood. None of them justify thinking that E = mc2 is a cultural artifact, or that E might equal mc3

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in Afghanistan or on a distant planet. Extraterrestrials would of course express Einstein’s formula with different symbols, but the law itself is as mind-independent as Mars.

As the authors say simply: “There is a way that the world is.” It is the task of science to learn as much as it can about how this universe, not made by us, behaves. The awesome achievements of technology are irrefutable evidence that science keeps getting closer and closer to objective truth.

As the authors tell us, there are two distinct kinds of knowledge: logical and mathematical truth (statements that are certain within a given formal system), and scientific truth, never absolutely certain, but which can be accepted with a degree of probability that in many instances is practically indistinguishable from certainty. It takes a bizarre kind of mind to imagine that two plus two could be anything but four, or that, as the authors put it, cows can jump over the moon or rabbits lay multicolored eggs.

The authors are to be especially cheered for their coverage of unsubstantiated alternative treatments, some of them weird beyond imagining. Preposterous medical claims can cause untold harm to gullible persons who rely on them to the exclusion of treatment by mainstream physicians.

The authors are also to be commended for finding colorful and apt quotations from other writers. Bertrand Russell, for instance, gave three simple rules for curbing one’s tendency to accept what he called “intellectual rubbish”:

1. When the experts are agreed, the opposite opinion cannot be held to be certain.

2. When they are not agreed, no opinion can be regarded as certain by a nonexpert.

3. When they all hold that no sufficient grounds for a positive opinion exist, the ordinary person would do well to suspend judgment.

“These propositions seem mild,” Russell added, “yet, if accepted, they would absolutely revolutionize human life.”

I am under no illusions about how effective this book will be in persuading readers to adopt Russell’s three maxims. I can say that to the extent it does, it will have performed a service that our technologically advanced but scientifically retarded nation desperately needs.

— Martin Gardner

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ix

Preface

Few claims seem to arouse more interest, evoke more emotion, and create more confusion than those dealing with the paranormal, the supernatural, or the mysterious—what in this book we call “weird things.” Although many such claims are unbelievable, many people believe them, and their belief often has a profound effect on their lives. Billions of dollars are spent each year on people and products claiming supernatural powers. Channelers claim to communicate with aliens from outer space, psychics and astrologers claim to fore- tell the future, and healers claim to cure everything from AIDS to warts. Who are we to believe? How do we decide which claims are credible? What distinguishes rational from irrational claims? This book is designed to help you answer such questions.

Why do you believe in any given claim? Do you believe for any of the following reasons?

• You had an extraordinary personal experience. • You embrace the idea that anything is possible—including

weird things. • You have an especially strong feeling that the claim is true or

false. • You have made a leap of faith that compels you to accept the

claim. • You believe in inner, mystical ways of knowing that support the

claim. • You know that no one has ever disproved the claim. • You have empirical evidence that the claim is true. • You believe that any claim is true for you if you believe it to be

true.

This list of reasons for belief could go on and on. But which rea- sons are good reasons? Clearly, some are better than others; some can help us decide which claims are most likely to be true, and some can’t. If we care whether any claim is actually true, whether our beliefs are well founded (and not merely comfortable or convenient), we must be able to distinguish good reasons from bad. We must understand how and when our beliefs are justified, how and when we can say that we know that something is true or believable.

The central premise of this book is that such an understanding is possible, useful, and empowering. Being able to distinguish good

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reasons from bad will not only improve your decision-making ability; it will also give you a powerful weapon against all forms of huckster- ism. This volume shows you step-by-step how to sort out reasons, how to evaluate evidence, and how to tell when a claim (no matter how strange) is likely to be true. It’s a course in critical thinking as applied to claims and phenomena that many people think are immune to critical thinking.

The emphasis, then, is neither on debunking nor on advocating specific claims, but on explaining principles of critical thinking that enable you to evaluate any claim for yourself. To illustrate how to apply these principles, we supply analyses of many extraordinary claims, including conclusions regarding their likely truth or falsity. But the focus is on carefully wielding the principles, not on whether a given claim goes unscathed or is cut down.

Often in the realm of the weird, such principles themselves are precisely what’s at issue. Arguments about weird things are frequently about how people know and if people know—the main concerns of the branch of philosophy called epistemology. Thinking about weird things, then, brings us face-to-face with some of the most funda- mental issues in human thought. So we concentrate on clearly explaining these issues, showing why the principles themselves in this book are valid, and demonstrating why many alternatives to them are unfounded. We explore alleged sources of knowledge like faith, intuition, mysticism, perception, introspection, memory, reason, and science. We ask: Do any of these factors give us knowledge? Why or why not?

Since we show how these principles can be used in specific cases, this book is essentially a work of applied epistemology. Whether you’re a believer or nonbeliever in weird things, and whether or not you’re aware of it, you have an epistemology, a theory of knowledge. If you ever hope to discern whether a weird claim (or any other kind of claim) is true, your epistemology had better be a good one.

The principles discussed in this book can help you evaluate any claim—not just those dealing with weird phenomena. We believe that if you can successfully use these principles to assess the most bizarre, most unexpected claims, you’re well prepared to tackle anything run- of-the-mill.

NEW EDITION, NEW MATERIAL

For this seventh edition, we have revised several sections, updated several others, and added new discussions of topics that now draw a great deal of popular interest. These changes include:

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• A new case study on climate change • New boxes on ancient aliens, ghost hunters, precognition, the

Phoenixville and Stephenville lights, end of the world prophe- cies, and immunization and autism

• Expanded discussion of the harm of irrational beliefs, the possi- bility of time travel and space travel, the relationship between magic and miracles, and the plausibility of astrology

IMPORTANT CONTINUING FEATURES

This volume also includes the following:

• Explanations of over thirty principles of knowledge, reasoning, and evidence that you can use to enhance your problem-solving skills and sharpen your judgment.

• Discussions of over sixty paranormal, supernatural, or mysterious phenomena, including astrology, ghosts, fairies, ESP, psychokinesis, UFO abductions, channeling, dowsing, near-death experiences, pro- phetic dreams, demon possession, time travel, parapsychology, and creationism.

• Details of a step-by-step procedure for evaluating any extraordi- nary claim. We call it the SEARCH formula and give several examples showing how it can be applied to some popular weird claims.

• Numerous boxes offering details on various offbeat beliefs, assess- ments by both true believers and skeptics of extraordinary claims, and reports of relevant scientific research. We think this material can stimulate discussion or serve as examples that can be assessed using the principles of critical thinking.

• A comprehensive treatment of different views about the nature of truth, including several forms of relativism and subjectivism.

• A detailed discussion of the characteristics, methodology, and limitations of science, illustrated with analyses of the claims of para- psychology and creationism. This discussion includes a complete treatment of science’s criteria of adequacy and how those criteria should be used to evaluate extraordinary claims.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS

The authors shared equally in the work of writing this book and thus share equally in responsibility for any of its shortcomings. But we are not alone in the project. We’re grateful to Muhlenberg College for

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the research funds and library resources made available to us, to the Muhlenberg Scholars who participated in the course based on this book, and to the many people who helped us by reviewing the man- uscript for accuracy, giving expert advice, and offering insightful commentary.

For the seventh edition, these included the following people:

Anne Berre, Schreiner University James Blackmon, San Francisco State University William Holly, Modesto Junior College Michael Jackson, St. Bonaventure University Don Merrell, Arkansas State University Tadd Ruetenik, St. Ambrose University Dennis Shaw, Lower Columbia College Weimin Sun, California State University at Northridge Mark Vopat, Youngstown State University Helen Woodman, Ferris State University

And we continue to thank the reviewers of the sixth edition, who include:

H. E. Baber, University of San Diego Tim Black, California State University, Northridge Douglas E. Hill, California State University, Fullerton Rebekah Ross-Fountain, Texas State University–San Marcos Mark C. Vopat, Youngstown State University

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FOREWORD vii

PREFACE ix

Chapter 1 Introduction: Close Encounters with the Strange 1

THE IMPORTANCE OF WHY 2

BEYOND WEIRD TO THE ABSURD 4

A WEIRDNESS SAMPLER 6

Notes 13

Chapter 2 The Possibility of the Impossible 14

PARADIGMS AND THE PARANORMAL 15

LOGICAL POSSIBILITY VERSUS PHYSICAL IMPOSSIBILITY 16

THE POSSIBILITY OF ESP 22

THEORIES AND THINGS 24

ON KNOWING THE FUTURE 25

Summary 28

Study Questions 30

Evaluate These Claims 30

Discussion Questions 30

Field Problem 30

Critical Reading and Writing 31

Notes 32

Chapter 3 Arguments Good, Bad, and Weird 33

CLAIMS AND ARGUMENTS 34

DEDUCTIVE ARGUMENTS 39

INDUCTIVE ARGUMENTS 42

Enumerative Induction 42

Analogical Induction 46

Hypothetical Induction (Abduction, or Inference to the Best Explanation) 47

Contents

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INFORMAL FALLACIES 49

Unacceptable Premises 49

Begging the Question 49 False Dilemma 49

Irrelevant Premises 50

Equivocation 50 Composition 50 Division 51 Appeal to the Person 51 Genetic Fallacy 51 Appeal to Authority 51 Appeal to the Masses 52 Appeal to Tradition 52 Appeal to Ignorance 52 Appeal to Fear 53 Straw Man 53

Insufficient Premises 53

Hasty Generalization 53 Faulty Analogy 54 False Cause 54 Slippery Slope 54

STATISTICAL FALLACIES 55

Misleading Averages 55

Missing Values 55

Hazy Comparisons 56

Summary 57

Study Questions 57

Evaluate These Claims 58

Discussion Questions 59

Field Problem 60

Critical Reading and Writing 60

Notes 61

Chapter 4 Knowledge, Belief, and Evidence 62

BABYLONIAN KNOWLEDGE-ACQUISITION TECHNIQUES 63

PROPOSITIONAL KNOWLEDGE 64

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REASONS AND EVIDENCE 65

EXPERT OPINION 71

COHERENCE AND JUSTIFICATION 74

SOURCES OF KNOWLEDGE 75

THE APPEAL TO FAITH 77

THE APPEAL TO INTUITION 79

THE APPEAL TO MYSTICAL EXPERIENCE 81

ASTROLOGY REVISITED 84

Summary 90

Study Questions 91

Evaluate These Claims 91

Discussion Questions 91

Field Problem 92

Critical Reading and Writing 92

Notes 93

Chapter 5 Looking for Truth in Personal Experience 96

SEEMING AND BEING 97

PERCEIVING: WHY YOU CAN’T ALWAYS BELIEVE WHAT YOU SEE 99

Perceptual Constancies 99

The Role of Expectation 100

Looking for Clarity in Vagueness 101

The Blondlot Case 104

“Constructing” UFOs 107

REMEMBERING: WHY YOU CAN’T ALWAYS TRUST WHAT YOU RECALL 111

CONCEIVING: WHY YOU SOMETIMES SEE WHAT YOU BELIEVE 118

Denying the Evidence 118

Subjective Validation 121

Confirmation Bias 125

The Availability Error 127

The Representativeness Heuristic 132

Anthropomorphic Bias 135

Against All Odds 138

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xvi C O N T E N T S

ANECDOTAL EVIDENCE: WHY TESTIMONIALS CAN’T BE TRUSTED 141

The Variable Nature of Illness 143

The Placebo Effect 145

Overlooked Causes 146

SCIENTIFIC EVIDENCE: WHY CONTROLLED STUDIES CAN BE TRUSTED 147

Summary 149

Study Questions 150

Evaluate These Claims 151

Discussion Questions 151

Field Problem 151

Critical Reading and Writing 152

Notes 153

Chapter 6 Science and Its Pretenders 158

SCIENCE AND DOGMA 159

SCIENCE AND SCIENTISM 160

SCIENTIFIC METHODOLOGY 161

CONFIRMING AND REFUTING HYPOTHESES 166

CRITERIA OF ADEQUACY 171

Testability 172

Fruitfulness 174

Scope 177

Simplicity 178

Conservatism 180

CREATIONISM, EVOLUTION, AND CRITERIA OF ADEQUACY 181

Scientific Creationism 183

Intelligent Design 191

PARAPSYCHOLOGY 197

Summary 212

Study Questions 213

Evaluate These Claims 213

Discussion Questions 214

Field Problem 214

Critical Reading and Writing 214

Notes 215

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Chapter 7 Case Studies in the Extraordinary 220

THE SEARCH FORMULA 222

Step 1: State the Claim 223

Step 2: Examine the Evidence for the Claim 223

Step 3: Consider Alternative Hypotheses 224

Step 4: Rate, According to the Criteria of Adequacy, Each Hypothesis 225

HOMEOPATHY 227

INTERCESSORY PRAYER 231

UFO ABDUCTIONS 234

COMMUNICATING WITH THE DEAD 248

NEAR-DEATH EXPERIENCES 253

GHOSTS 268

CONSPIRACY THEORIES 276

CLIMATE CHANGE 283

Summary 288

Study Questions 288

Evaluate These Claims 289

Field Problem 290

Critical Reading and Writing 290

Notes 290

Chapter 8 Relativism,Truth, and Reality 295

WE EACH CREATE OUR OWN REALITY 297

REALITY IS SOCIALLY CONSTRUCTED 301

REALITY IS CONSTITUTED BY CONCEPTUAL SCHEMES 306

THE RELATIVIST’S PETARD 311

FACING REALITY 313

Summary 315

Study Questions 316

Evaluate These Claims 316

Discussion Questions 316

Field Problem 316

Critical Reading and Writing 317

Notes 318

CREDITS C-1

INDEX I-1

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1

ONE Introduction: Close Encounters with the Strange

THIS BOOK IS FOR you who have stared into the nightsky or the dark recesses of a room, hairs raised on the back of your neck, eyes wide, faced with an experience you

couldn’t explain but about which you have never stopped

wondering, “Was it real?” It’s for you who have read

and heard about UFOs, psychic phenomena, time travel,

out-of-body experiences, ghosts, monsters, astrology, rein-

carnation, mysticism, acupuncture, iridology, incredible

experiments in quantum physics, and a thousand other

extraordinary things, and asked, “Is it true?” Most of all, it’s

for you who believe, as Einstein did, that the most beautiful

experience we can have is the mysterious—and who yet, like

him, have the courage to ask tough questions until the mys-

tery yields answers.

Wonder is the feeling of a philosopher, and philosophy begins in wonder.

—PLATO

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But this is not primarily a book of such answers, though several will be offered. This book is about how to find the answers for yourself—how to test the truth or reality of some of the most influential, mysterious, provocative, bewildering puzzles we can ever experience. It’s about how to think clearly and critically about what we authors have dubbed weird things—all the unusual, awesome, wonderful, bizarre, and antic happenings, real or alleged, that bubble up out of science, pseu- doscience, the occult, the paranormal, the mystic, and the miraculous.

THE IMPORTANCE OF WHY

Pick up almost any book or magazine on such subjects. It will tell you that some extraordinary phenomenon is real or illusory, that some strange claim is true or false, probable or improbable. Plenty of peo- ple around you will gladly offer you their beliefs (often unshakable) about the most amazing things. In this blizzard of assertions, you hear a lot of whats, but seldom any good whys. That is, you hear the beliefs, but seldom any solid reasons behind them—nothing sub- stantial enough to justify your sharing the beliefs; nothing reliable enough to indicate that these assertions are likely to be true. You may hear naiveté, passionate advocacy, fierce denunciation, one-sided sifting of evidence, defense of the party line, leaps of faith, jumps to false conclusions, plunges into wishful thinking, and courageous stands on the shaky ground of subjective certainty. But the good rea- sons are missing. Even if you do hear good reasons, you may end up forming a firm opinion on one extraordinary claim, but fail to learn any principle that would help you with a similar case. Or you hear good reasons, but no one bothers to explain why they’re so good, why they’re most likely to lead to the truth. Or no one may dare to answer the ultimate why—why good reasons are necessary to begin with.

Without good whys, humans have no hope of understanding all that we fondly call weird—or anything else, for that matter. Without good whys, our beliefs are simply arbitrary, with no more claim to knowledge than the random choice of a playing card. Without good whys to guide us, our beliefs lose their value in a world where beliefs are already a dime a dozen.

We especially need good whys when faced with weirdness. For statements about weird things are almost always cloaked in swirling mists of confusion, misconception, misperception, and our own yearn- ing to disbelieve or believe. Our task of judging the reality of these weird things isn’t made any easier by one fact that humbles and inspires every scientist: Sometimes the weirdest phenomena are absolutely

2 O N E : I N T RO D U C T I O N : C L O S E E N C O U N T E R S W I T H T H E S T R A N G E

Skeptical habits of thought are essential for nothing less than our survival— because baloney, bamboozles, bunk, careless thinking, flimflam and wishes disguised as facts are not restricted to parlor magic and ambiguous advice on matters of the heart.

—CARL SAGAN

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real; sometimes the strangest claims turn out to be true. The best sci- entists and thinkers can never forget that sometimes wondrous dis- coveries are made out there on the fringe of experience, where anomalies prowl.