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Compute four-week and five-week moving averages for the time series (to 2 decimals).
Four week
Five Week
b. Compute the MSE for the four-week and five-week moving average forecasts (to 2 decimals).
MSE (4 week)
MSE (5 week)
b. What appears to be the best number of weeks of past data (three, four, or five) to use in the moving average computation? Recall that MSE for the three-week moving average is 10.22.
Select one of the following:
The 3-week moving average provides the smallest MSE
The 4-week moving average provides the smallest MSE
The 5-week moving average provides the smallest MSE
show the exponential smoothing forecasts using = 0.1.
A) Applying the MSE measure of forecast accuracy, would you prefer a smoothing constant of = .1 or = .2 for the gasoline sales time series (to 2 decimals)?
MSE for = .1 __________
MSE for = .2___________
B) Are the results the same if you apply MAE as the measure of accuracy (to 2 decimals)?
MAE for = .1_________
MAE for = .2_________
C) What are the results if MAPE is used (to 2 decimals)?
MAE for = .1_________
MAE for = .2_________
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