Fundamentals of Risk and Insurance EmmEtt J. Vaughan • thErEsE m. Vaughan
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FUNDAMENTALS OF RISK AND INSURANCE
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FUNDAMENTALS OF RISK AND INSURANCE
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ELEVENTH EDITION
EMMETT J. VAUGHAN THERESE M. VAUGHAN
VICE PRESIDENT & EXECUTIVE PUBLISHER George Hoffman EXECUTIVE EDITOR Joel Hollenbeck CONTENT EDITOR Jennifer Manias ASSISTANT EDITOR Courtney Luzzi SENIOR EDITORIAL ASSISTANT Erica Horowitz DIRECTOR OF MARKETING Amy Scholz ASSISTANT MARKETING MANAGER Puja Katariwala MARKETING ASSISTANT Mia Brady SENIOR PRODUCT DESIGNER Allison Morris SENIOR PRODUCTION MANAGER Janis Soo ASSOCIATE PRODUCTION MANAGER Joel Balbin COVER DESIGNER Kenji Ngieng COVER CREDIT Bart Sadowski/iStockphoto
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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data
Vaughan, Emmett J. Fundamentals of risk and insurance / Emmett J. Vaughan, Therese M. Vaughan. —
Eleventh edition. pages cm
Includes bibliographical references and index. ISBN 978-1-118-53400-7 (pbk.) 1. Insurance. 2. Risk (Insurance) I. Vaughan, Therese M. II. Title. HG8051.V35 2014 368—dc23
2013033075
Printed in the United States of America
10 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1
http://www.copyright.com
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To Bob, Kevin, and Tommy
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ABOUT THE AUTHORS ■
Emmett J. Vaughan was a Professor of Insurance at the University of Iowa for over 40 years, where he held the Partington Professorship in Insurance until his death in 2004. Professor Vaughan earned his un- dergraduate degree in economics from Creighton University and his M.A. and Ph.D. in economics and insurance from the University of Nebraska. He was an enthusiastic teacher, prolific scholar, and beloved by his students. He inspired hundreds of students to choose careers in insurance.
Therese M. Vaughan has spent her career in academia and insurance regulation. She was the Robb B. Kelley Distinguished Professor of Insurance and Actuarial Science at Drake University. Prior to joining Drake, she served as Iowa Insurance Com- missioner for over 10 years, and most recently, she was the CEO of the National Association of Insur- ance Commissioners. Vaughan earned her under- graduate degree in economics and insurance from the University of Iowa and her Ph.D. in risk and in- surance from the University of Pennsylvania.
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PREFACE ■
This eleventh edition of Fundamentals of Risk and Insurance marks the 41st anniversary of the first edi- tion, published in 1972. Over the years, the book has undergone major changes as the field of risk management and insurance has changed. Emmett J. Vaughan, the original author and architect of the text, guided the revisions over the years to main- tain the text’s primary focus, that of a consumer- oriented text. He was passionate about the field of risk and insurance, and his passion was reflected in the book through the decades. Professor Vaughan saw risk and insurance implications everywhere, from personal life events to the changing world around him to the fairy tales he read to his chil- dren (with commentary). His enthusiasm for the field was infectious and influenced many students to pursue careers in risk and insurance. I was fortu- nate to have him as a teacher, advisor, role model, and father.
Professor Vaughan died in October 2004, just as we were beginning to discuss the tenth edition of the book. This text had been a proud accomplishment of his for over 30 years., and, in nearly all respects, this is still his book. Though I have updated it to reflect recent developments and tried to shorten it in parts, the bulk of the text reflects his thoughts over his forty-plus year career. I hope I have been able to capture some of the enthusiasm with which he approached the field.
At the time the first edition was published, the field of insurance differed from what it is today. Many of the current forms of insurance coverage did not exist; the world seemed a simpler place. Medicare was not yet ten years old, and had no Parts C and D. Richard Nixon was president of the United States. Automobile no-fault insurance was an experiment that had been adopted by a single state (Massachusetts), and only three states had com- pulsory automobile insurance (New York, North Carolina, and Massachusetts). The 1943 Standard Fire Policy was the standard form of coverage for
most commercial entities, and the Family Auto Policy was the standard for personal automobile insurance. Universal life insurance was not yet on the drawing board and endowment policies were a staple for the life insurance agent. There was no such thing as long-term care insurance, no indi- vidual retirement accounts, and Employee Retire- ment Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA) was not yet a gleam in a Congressperson’s eye. The Social Security tax base was $9000, the Medicare Part B premium was $5.60, and there was no such thing as Obamacare.
Although the book has changed over the years, its purpose, organization, and approach remain essentially the same. The original goal was to create a consumer-oriented text, and this orientation is continued in the present edition. The first edition of this book was written in response to a perceived need for an insurance textbook that addressed the principles of risk management without abandoning the discussion of insurance. The reception to the book over the past three and a half decades has been gratifying. At least a part of the book’s success is due to the fascinating subject matter with which it deals. Experience shows that insurance can be an exciting subject. This comes as no surprise to those of us who find this field an exciting one. It is satis- fying, however, to find that our excitement can be shared by our students.
SCOPE OF THE SUBJECT
As the title indicates, Fundamentals of Risk and Insur- ance is about risk and about insurance. Its objective is to summarize the pervasive nature of pure risk on the individual and on society, and to illustrate the way in which insurance can be used to deal with the problems posed by such risk. It is a book on insurance theory as well as on how students can use insurance personally.
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x PREFACE
The main emphasis is on the insurance product and the use of insurance within the risk manage- ment framework. The traditional fields of life insur- ance, health insurance, property and liability insur- ance, and social insurance are treated in terms of their relationship to the wide range of insurance risks to which the individual and the business firm are exposed.
The text is designed for use in a college-level sur- vey of the area of risk and insurance. As an intro- duction to the subject, it is intended for students who have had little or no prior education in insur- ance. It may serve as the basis for more advanced texts for those students who intend to specialize in the field of insurance, and at the same time, it constitutes a compendium of what an informed citizen and consumer should know about the subject.
WHY STUDY INSURANCE?
The reasons for studying insurance are varied. For some, the study is undertaken in preparation for a ca- reer in the field. Others study to improve their knowl- edge of the subject to become more knowledgeable consumers. The average individual will spend a sig- nificant percentage of his or her disposable income on insurance over a lifetime, and one of the logi- cal reasons for studying insurance is to learn how it can be used in personal financial planning. Still others study insurance as a part of the discipline of risk management, the managerial function that aims at preserving the operating effectiveness of the organization.
Although each of these reasons is adequate jus- tification for the study of insurance, whether that study should be considered essential for business students depends on the approach and the specifics of what is studied. Some have argued that the study of insurance per se is a narrow specialty, yet the broader discipline of risk management, of which in- surance buying is a part, is a function that all future managers should understand. A proper understand- ing of the methods of dealing with exposures to loss is essential for organizational leaders. Although in- surance is only one of the techniques that can be used to deal with pure risks, risk management deci- sions presuppose a thorough understanding of the nature and functions of insurance.
We believe that insurance and risk management is a subject that needs to be taught in colleges and universities. Far from being the narrow specialty it is sometimes characterized as, the study of insur- ance has a breadth that few disciplines equal. As you progress through the book, you will encounter applications from economics, statistics, finance, accounting, law, decision theory, and ethics.
Because the study of risk management and insur- ance draws on these different disciplines, it is some- times considered a subset of one of them. Thus, in many colleges and universities, insurance and risk management are a part of the finance curriculum, reflecting the financial nature of the risk manage- ment function. In other schools, it is considered a part of economics; in still others, it is located in another department. This organizational ambiguity reflects the confusion concerning what the study of risk management and insurance entails.
In fact, risk management and insurance is a sep- arate and distinct discipline, which draws on and integrates the knowledge from other business fields. In a micro sense, it is a discipline in which various methodologies are brought to bear on a significant problem.
Viewed from a macro perspective, the study of insurance addresses important issues facing society today: the high cost of medical care, crime, the tort system, pollution and the environment, climate change, and the broad subject of ethics. Indeed, it is not an exaggeration to say that the debates in the insurance arena address questions of what kind of society we will have and who will pay for what. Debates over the cost of insurance and the way in which insurance prices should be deter- mined have intensified over the past two decades. Increasingly, the debates over insurance availability and affordability have come to center stage as the challenges of the cost of automobile insurance, access to health care, responsibility for pollution, damage from hurricanes, product liability, and med- ical malpractice have become crises. As consumers, we are all affected by the way in which insurance operates.
Finally, the study of risk management and insur- ance is a fertile field for considering the subject of ethics in business and in society. Indeed, the ubiq- uitous presence of ethical problems in the field of insurance transactions raises an important ques- tion: is ethics something to be studied and learned, or is it something innate in the individual?
PREFACE xi
ORGANIZATION OF THE BOOK
This book is divided into three major sections. The first section examines the concept of risk, the na- ture of the insurance device, and the principles of risk management. This section also provides an overview of the insurance industry and the manner in which it operates.
The second section examines the traditional fields of life and health insurance as solutions to the risks connected with the loss of income. The Social Security system, workers compensation, and other social insurance coverages are discussed in this section to permit students to integrate the cov- erage under these programs in planning income protection. The final section deals with the risks as- sociated with the ownership of property and legal liability. The coverages applicable to the individual or family are treated in chapters that are separate from those designed for the business firm, permit- ting those instructors who prefer to concentrate on insurance for the individual to give only slight treat- ment to commercial coverages.
The book is designed to fit a one-semester or two- quarter course, but it may be adapted to longer and shorter sequences. We have composed what we consider to be a logical sequence of subject mat- ter, but the book can be used flexibly. Sections Two and Three in particular may be taken in different order.
CHANGES IN THE TENTH EDITION
The forty-one years that have passed since the publication of the first edition of Fundamentals of Risk and Insurance have been marked by signif- icant change in the field of insurance. The sec- ond through tenth editions are a chronology of that change.
The insurance industry and its environment con- tinue to change, and the authors have attempted to capture the flavor of that change in each revi- sion. Changes in the legal environment, revisions in policy forms, the introduction of new types of in- surance, and a myriad of new problems continue to make insurance an exciting field of study but a challenge to the authors of textbooks.
This edition has been updated to reflect new policy forms (including ISO’s 2010 Commercial
Auto Policy, 2011 Homeowners Policy, 2012 Commer- cial Property Policy, and 2013 Commercial Liability Policy), cyber risk, recent laws affecting health insu- rance and Medicare, changes in regulation stem- ming from the financial crisis, and other changes in the market. Where possible, I have eliminated extensive discussion of old topics. Unfortunately, the text continues to be lengthy, reflecting the breadth of the subject matter with which it deals.
As in the last edition, there is a companion website for individuals using the text. In prior editions, sample policy forms were included as an appendix to the book (from the first through sixth editions), as a separate bound volume (the seventh and eighth edition), or on a CD-ROM that came with the book (the ninth edition). With this edition, as in the last, sample policy forms will be posted to the website, allowing more forms to be provided (www.wiley.com/college/vaughan). In ad- dition, Chapter 34, Insurance in the Future, which deals with current events and trends, will be pub- lished on the website.
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
Many people have provided support and encour- agement as I have worked on this revision. First, of course, are the members of my family, including my husband, children, mother, and siblings. I am par- ticularly grateful for their patience.
As a book progresses through successive editions, the number of persons to whom an author is in- debted increases geometrically, since the efforts of so many people become a part of the work. Over the years, my father recognized many people for their efforts, and I continue that appreciation. Our teachers, reviewers, and users have helped shape our thoughts and the book. Although much has changed over the years, colleagues and students who provided comments on earlier editions con- tinue to influence it. As a result, there are many to whom special thanks are due. They include our for- mer colleague and my teacher, Professor Michael Murray, who shared his insights with us over the years and whose influence has been significant. They include my colleague, Professor Robert W. Cooper, who generously provided his support and guidance over the years. The reviewers of the earlier editions, whose contributions helped to shape this one as well, were Tom Auippa, Richard C. Allgood,
xii PREFACE
Garth H. Allen, Albert L. Auxier, W. Oscar Cooper, Robert W. Cooper, Richard Corbett, Darlene Dicco, Bill Feldhaus, Roger A. Formisano, John W. Hanye, Kenneth J. Krepas, E.J. Leverett, Aaron Lieberman, Jim Milanese, Joseph R. Morrin, Robert J. Myers, John J. O’Connell, Mike Thorne, S. Travis Pritchett, Dede Paul, Gary K. Stone, and Robert Witt.
A number of my father’s former graduate teach- ings assistants offered many suggestions over the years: Lois Anderson, Phillip Brooks, Robb Fick, Tim Hamann, Terry Leap, Lacy McNeill, Joseph Panici, Mark Power, Lori Rider, Roger Stech, Ellen Steele, Mike Steele, Patrick Steele, Art Cox, Robert Carney, and Changsu Ouh. Their suggestions contributed to the earlier editions, and their influence carries through to this edition.
This edition benefited from the insights of many people, and it would be impossible to thank them all. I owe special thanks to Dana Ramundt, who sup- plied many of the sample premiums used to illus- trate various points in the text. Many others con- tributed advice or insights. Todd Sells was particu- larly helpful. Others who in some way influenced the text include Elise Liebers, Poojah Rahman, Ethan Sonnichsen, Eric Thompson, Mark Sagat, David Vacca, Mary Sarrazin, Diane Munns, Ed Toy, Eric Nordman, Jane Koenigsman, Aaron Branden- burg, Josh Goldberg, Kris DeFrain, Larry Bruning, Kay Noonan, Rob Esson, Cathy Weatherford, Glenn
Pomeroy, Sandy Praeger, and Dean Brooks. While their assistance improved the final result, all errors are entirely mine.
Thank you to the folks at John Wiley and Sons, who were so helpful in completing this revision, especially Joel Balbin and Courtney Luzzi. Thanks also to Robert Saigh at Razorsharp Communica- tions, who was delightful to work with during the editing process.
Finally, thank you to all of the students we have had over the years. Their many comments and in- telligent questions contributed to the design of the book and to the examples and illustrations used. Thank you to all of the users of the first ten editions who took time to write with their suggestions and comments.
I would be grateful to receive advice from the teachers who will use this book, particularly con- cerning any errors that should be corrected and any materials should be added or omitted when it is again revised. To the students who will be com- pelled to read it, I extend the hope that the mate- rial will seem as exciting and interesting as it has seemed to both of its authors.
Therese M. Vaughan Des Moines, Iowa
September 2013
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BRIEF CONTENTS ■
Chapter 1 The problem of risk 1 Chapter 2 Introduction to Risk
Management 12 Chapter 3 The Insurance Device 34 Chapter 4 Risk Management
Applications 54 Chapter 5 The Private Insurance
Industry 71 Chapter 6 Regulation of the Insurance
Industry 95 Chapter 7 Functions of Insurers 128 Chapter 8 Financial Aspects of Insurer
Operations 144 Chapter 9 The Legal Framework 163 Chapter 10 Managing Personal
Risks 181 Chapter 11 Social Insurance
Programs 204 Chapter 12 Introduction to Life
Insurance 224 Chapter 13 The Actuarial Basis of Life
Insurance 240 Chapter 14 The Life Insurance
Contract—General Provisions 253 Chapter 15 The Life Insurance
Contract—Other Provisions 264 Chapter 16 Special Life Insurance
Forms 279 Chapter 17 Buying Life Insurance 289 Chapter 18 Annuities and Pension
Benefits 307 Chapter 19 Managing the Retirement
Risk 333
Chapter 20 Health Insurance: Disability Income Insurance 348
Chapter 21 Health Insurance: Coverage for Medical Expenses 365
Chapter 22 Health Insurance for the Elderly 388
Chapter 23 Employee Benefits and Other Business Uses of Life and Health Insurance 412
Chapter 24 The Homeowners Policy—General Provisions 432
Chapter 25 The Homeowners Policy Forms 448
Chapter 26 Other Personal Forms of Property Insurance 462
Chapter 27 Negligence and Legal Liability 480
Chapter 28 General Liability Insurance for the Individual 494
Chapter 29 The Automobile and its Legal Environment 512
Chapter 30 The Personal Auto Policy 529
Chapter 31 Commercial Property Insurance 552
Chapter 32 Commercial Liability Insurance 582
Chapter 33 Surety Bonds, Trade Credit, and Financial Guaranty Insurance 609
Chapter 34 Insurance in the Future (Online) 620
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CONTENTS ■
SECTION ONE RISK, INSURANCE, AND RISK MANAGEMENT
Chapter 1 The Problem of Risk 1
The Concept of Risk 1 Current Definitions of Risk 2 Our Definition of Risk 2 Uncertainty and Its Relationship to Risk
3 The Degree of Risk 4 Risk Distinguished from Peril and Hazard
5 Classifications of Risk 5
The Burden of Risk 8 The Growing Number and Variety of Pure Risks 8 Increasing Severity of Losses 10 Managing Risk 10 Important Concepts to Remember 10
Chapter 2 Introduction to Risk Management 12
The History of Modern Risk Management 13 Enterprise Risk Management 15 Risk Management Defined 16 Risk Management Tools 17
Risk Control 18 Risk Financing 18
Risk Management as a Business Function 20 Risk Management’s Contribution to the
Organization 21 The Risk Manager’s Job 22
Misconceptions About Risk Management 23 Universal Applicability 23 Anti-Insurance Bias? 23
Risk Management and the Individual 24 The Risk Management Process 24
Determination of Objectives 24
Identifying Risk Exposures 25 Evaluating Risks 28 Consideration of Alternatives and Selection
of the Risk Treatment Device 29 Implementation of the Decision 30 Evaluation and Review 30
Chapter 3 The Insurance Device 34
The Nature and Functions of Insurance 34 Risk Sharing and Risk Transfer 34 Insurance Defined from the Viewpoint of
the Individual 35 Risk Reduction Through Pooling 35 Insurance Defined from the Viewpoint of
Society 40 Insurance: Transfer or Pooling? 41 Insurance and Gambling 41
The Economic Contribution of Insurance 41 Elements of An Insurable Risk 42
Randomness 42 Economic Feasibility 43
Self-Insurance 43 The Fields of Insurance 44
Private (Voluntary) Insurance 44 Social Insurance 47 Public Guarantee Insurance Programs 51 Similarities in the Various Fields of
Insurance 52
Chapter 4 Risk Management Applications 54
Risk Management Decisions 54 Utility Theory and Risk Management
Decisions 55 Decision Theory and Risk Management
Decisions 55 The Rules of Risk Management 57
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Risk Characteristics as Determinants of the Tool 58
The Special Case of Risk Reduction 59 Buying Insurance 59
Common Errors in Buying Insurance 59 Need for a Plan 60 Other Considerations in the Choice
Between Insurance and Retention 61 Selecting the Agent and the Company 62
Alternatives to Commercial Insurance 65 Self-Insurance 66 Captive Insurance Companies 67 Risk Retention Act of 1986 68
Chapter 5 The Private Insurance Industry 71
A Brief History of Private Insurance 72 Insurance in Antiquity 72 Origins of the Modern Insurance
Business 72 Insurance in the United States 73
Classification of Private Insurers 74 Classification by Type of Product 74 Classification by Place of Incorporation and
Licensing 74 Insurers Classification by Legal Form of
Ownership 75 Marketing Systems 80
The Agent 80 Life Insurance Distribution System 81 Property and Liability Distribution
Systems 82 Insurance Marketing and the Internet 83 Corporate Combinations 83 Nuclear Energy Pools 83 Other Voluntary Syndicates 83 Banks and Insurance 84
Cooperation In the Insurance Industry 85 Rating Organizations 85 Distressed and Residual-Risk Pools 86 Educational Organizations 87 Insurance Trade Associations 87
Competition In the Insurance Industry 88 Price Competition 88 Quality Competition 89 Is the Insurance Industry Really
Competitive? 89
Chapter 6 Regulation of the Insurance Industry 95
The Why of Government Regulation of Insurance 95 The Why of Regulation Generally 95 Approaches to Government Control of
Business 96 Rationale for Regulation of the Insurance
Industry 97 Goals of Insurance Regulation 99 A Brief History of Insurance
Regulation 99
Regulation Today 101 The Current Regulatory Structure 101 National Association of Insurance
Commissioners 102
Areas Regulated 102 Solvency Regulation 102 Market Regulation 107 Regulation of Rates 109 Risk-Retention Groups 112
State Versus Federal Regulation 113 Pressure for Repeal of the
McCarran-Ferguson Act 113 Arguments Favoring Federal
Regulation 113 Arguments Favoring State Regulation 114 Consequences of the Repeal of the
McCarran-Ferguson Act 114 Repeal of the McCarran-Ferguson Act as a
States-Rights Issue 115 The NAIC’s Efforts to Modernize State
Insurance Regulation 115 State versus Federal Regulation and Public
Choice 116
Global Influences On Insurance Regulation 117
Appendix: The Availability/Affordability Debate 118 Existing Subsidies in the Insurance
Market 118 Income Redistribution Effects of Subsidies
in Insurance 122 Causes of Availability Problems 122 Causes of Affordability Problems 123 Availability and Affordability and Public
Choice 125
CONTENTS xvii
Chapter 7 FUNCTIONS OF INSURERS 128
Functions of Insurers 128 Ratemaking 128
Some Basic Concepts 129 Types of Rates 130
Production 133 Underwriting 133
The Agent’s Role in Underwriting 134
Underwriting Policy 134 Process of Underwriting 134 Postselection Underwriting 135 Credit Scoring 136 Predictive Analytics 137
Loss Adjustment 137 Adjusters 138 Courses of Action in Claim
Settlement 138 Adjustment Process 138 Difficulties in Loss Settlement 139
The Investment Function 139 Miscellaneous Functions 140
Legal 140 Accounting 140 Engineering 140
Appendix: Retrospective Rating Plans 141 The Retrospective Formula 141
Chapter 8 Financial Aspects of Insurer Operations 144
Statutory Accounting Requirements 144 Differences Between Statutory Accounting
and GAAP 145 Terminology 146
Property and Liability Insurers 147 Concept of Earned Premiums 147 Incurred Losses 147 Expenses Incurred 148 Summary of Operations 148
Life Insurance Companies 150 Life Insurer Assets 150 Life Insurer Liabilities 150 Life Insurers’ Policyholders’ Surplus 151 Life Insurer Summary of Operations 151 Surplus Drain in Life Insurance 152
Reinsurance 152 Nature of Reinsurance 152 Types of Reinsurance Treaties 153 Reinsurance in Property and Liability
Insurance 153 Reinsurance in Life Insurance 154 Functions of Reinsurance 154 Risk-Financing Alternatives to
Reinsurance 155 Taxation of Insurance Companies 158
State Premium Tax 158 Federal Income Taxes 159
Important Terms and Concepts 160
Chapter 9 The Legal Framework 163
Insurance and the Law of Contracts 163 General Requirements of an Enforceable
Contract 164 Void and Voidable 166
Special Legal Characteristics of Insurance Contracts 166 Insurance Is a Contract of Indemnity 166 Insurance Is a Personal Contract 172 Insurance Is a Unilateral Contract 172 Insurance Is a Conditional Contract 173 Insurance Is a Contract of Adhesion 173 Insurance Is an Aleatory Contract 173 Insurance Is a Contract of Utmost Good
Faith 173 The Insurance Contract as a
Contract 177 Policy Construction 178
SECTION TWO LIFE AND HEALTH INSURANCE
Chapter 10 Managing Personal Risks 181
Objectives In Managing Personal Risks 182 Other Steps In Managing Personal Risks 183 Managing Risks Associated With Premature
Death 183 Identifying Risks Associated with
Premature Death 183 Measuring Risks Associated with
Premature Death 183
xviii CONTENTS
The Estate Liquidity Need 193 Estate Planning 193 Trusts 195
Longevity Risk 196 The Risk of Outliving the Retirement
Accumulation 197 Estimating the Accumulation Need 197
The Risks Associated With Disability 198 Needs Analysis for the Disability
Risk 198 Resources Available to Meet the Disability
Risk 199 Addressing Unmet Disability Income
Needs 199 Evaluating the Medical Expense Exposure 199 Managing the Risk of Unemployment 200
State Unemployment Insurance Programs 200
Retention and Risk Reduction 201
Chapter 11 Social Insurance Programs 204
Old-Age, Survivors, Disability, and Health Insurance 204 Eligibility and Qualification
Requirements 205 Financing 206 Amount of Benefits 207 Classes of Benefits 207 Summary of Qualification
Requirements 209 Loss of Benefits—the OASDHI
Program 209 Soundness of the Program 212
Workers Compensation 216 Historical Background 216 Rationale of Workers Compensation
Laws 217 Principles of Workers Compensation 217 An Overview of State Workers
Compensation Laws 218
Chapter 12 Introduction to Life Insurance 224
Some Unique Characteristics of Life Insurance 224 Life Insurance Is Not a Contract of
Indemnity 225
Types of Life Insurance Contracts 225 Reasons for Difference in Term and Cash
Value Insurance 226 The Level Premium Concept 227
Tax Treatment of Life Insurance 228 Code Definition of Life Insurance 229
Current Life Insurance Products 230 Term Insurance 230 Whole-Life Insurance 231 Universal Life Insurance 232 Variable Life Insurance 232 Adjustable Life Insurance 233 Endowment Life Insurance 233 Participating and Nonparticipating Life
Insurance 234 General Classifications of Life Insurance 234
Individual Life Insurance 234 Group Life Insurance 235 Credit Life Insurance 236 Total Life Insurance in Force in the United
States 237 Other Types of Life Insurance 238
Chapter 13 The Actuarial Basis of Life Insurance 240
Life Insurance Premium Computation 240 Mortality 241 Interest 241 The Net Single Premium 244 The Net Level Premium 246
Reserves On Life Insurance Policies 247 Benefit-Certain and Benefit-Uncertain
Contracts 249
Chapter 14 The Life Insurance Contract—General Provisions 253
Inception of the Life Insurance Contract 254 General Provisions of Life Insurance
Contracts 254 Entire Contract Clause 254 Ownership Clause 255 Beneficiary Clause 255 Incontestable Clause 256 Misstatement of Age Clause 256 Grace Period 257 Reinstatement 257 Suicide Clause 258
CONTENTS xix
Aviation Exclusions 258 War Clause 258
Settlement Options 258 Interest Option 259 Installments for a Fixed Period 259 Installments of a Fixed Amount 260 Life Income Options 260 Taxation of Policy Proceeds under Various
Settlement Options 262
Chapter 15 The Life Insurance Contract—Other Provisions 264
Nonforfeiture Values 264 Cash Option 265 Paid-Up Reduced Amount 266 Extended Term Insurance 266 Policy Loan Provisions 267 Automatic Premium Loan 267
Dividend Provisions 268 Important Optional Provisions 270
Disability Waiver of Premium Provision 270
Accidental Death Benefit 271 Guaranteed Insurability Option 272 Common Disaster Clause 273 Spendthrift Clause 273 Rights of Creditors to Life Insurance
Proceeds 274 Cost-of-Living Riders 274
Universal Life Policy Provisions 274 Premium and Cost of Insurance
Provision 274 Changes in the Amount of Insurance 275 Death Benefit Provision 275 Universal Life Insurance with Secondary
Guarantees 276 Index Universal Life Insurance 277
Chapter 16 Special Life Insurance Forms 279
Specialized Life Contracts 279 Mortgage Redemption Policy 280 Joint Mortgage Protection Policy 280 Survivorship Whole Life 280 Family Income Policy 281 Family Income Rider 281 Family Protection Policy 281
Return-of-Premium and Return-of-Cash-Value Policy 282
Modified Whole Life 283 Graded-Premium Whole Life 283 Single-Premium Life 283 Juvenile Insurance 284 Indeterminate Premium Policies 285 Low-Load and No-Load Life
Insurance 286 Advantages and Disadvantages of Special
Forms 286
Chapter 17 Buying Life Insurance 289
Decisions In Buying Life Insurance 289 Buy Term and Invest the Difference? 290 Life Insurance as an Investment 292 Choosing the Company 293 Comparing Differences in Cost 295 The NAIC Life Insurance Illustrations
Model Regulation 298 NAIC Model Replacement
Regulation 299 Investor-Owned Life Insurance 299 Industry Reform Initiatives 300 Shopping for Universal and Variable
Life 301 Some Additional Tax Considerations 302
Section 1035 Exchanges (“Rollovers”) 303
Life Insurance and Divorce Agreements 304
Chapter 18 Annuities and Pension Benefits 307
Annuities 307 Classification of Annuities 309 Income Tax Treatment of Annuities 310 Annuities and the Federal Estate
Tax 311 Specialized Annuities 311 Annuities as Investments for
Retirement 315 Regulation of Annuity Sales 316
Qualified Retirement Plans 317 A General Overview of Qualified
Plans 317 Basic Types of Qualified Plans 318
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Significance of the Nature of the Employer’s Promise 319
Other Types of Qualified Plans 320 Other Requirements for Qualified
Retirement Plans 323 Other Benefits 325 Required Joint-and-Survivor Option 326 Period-Certain Payments 326 Distribution Requirements 326 Taxation of Distributions 327
Individual Retirement Accounts 328 Traditional IRAs 329 The Roth IRA 330
A Concluding Note 331
Chapter 19 Managing the Retirement Risk 333
An Overview of the Retirement Risk 333 Causes of the Retirement Risk 334 Two Risks Associated with
Retirement 334 Retirement Risk Alternatives 334 An Overview of the Retirement Planning
Process 334 Countering the Urgency Deficit 337
Constructing a Retirement Plan 337 Estimating Retirement Needs 338 Planning the Retirement
Accumulation 341 Planning the Retirement
Distribution 343
Chapter 20 Health Insurance: Disability Income Insurance 348
General Nature of Disability Income Insurance 349 Types of Insurers 349 Methods of Marketing 349 Need for Disability Income
Insurance 349 Short-Term versus Long-Term Disability
Coverage 350 Disability Income Underwriting and
Pricing 350 Disability Income Contracts 351
Perils Covered 351 Elimination Periods 352 Limitations on Amount of Coverage 353
Definitions of Disability Income Policies 353
Exclusions in Disability Income Contracts 354
Payments for Other Than Total Disability 355
Optional Benefit Provisions 356 Individual Health Insurance Policy
Provisions 357 Individual Health Insurance Continuance
Provisions 357 Uniform Provisions 358 Optional Uniform Provisions 360
Programming and Buying Disability Income Insurance 360 Determining Disability Income Coverage
Needs 361 Evaluating Existing Sources of
Protection 361 Taxation of Disability Income 362 Cost of Disability Income Insurance 362
Chapter 21 Health Insurance: Coverage for Medical Expenses 365
Background On the Current Health Insurance Market 366 Historical Development of Health
Insurance in the United States 366 The Attack on Managed Care 368 Consumer-Directed Health Care 369
The Health Insurance Market 370 Employer-Provided Health
Insurance 370 The Public Sector 371
The Insurance Product 373 HMO Contracts 374 Exclusions under Health Insurance
Policies 374 Coordination of Benefit 375
Other Medical Expense Coverages 375 Limited Health Insurance Policies 375 Dental Expense Insurance 375 Limited Policies—Prescription
Drugs 376 Health Insurance 376
First-Dollar Coverages 376 Taxes and Health Care Costs 377
Deficiencies In the System and Prior Reform Efforts 377
CONTENTS xxi
The Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act of 2010 (The Aca) 380 The Future 385
Chapter 22 Health Insurance for the Elderly 388
Medicare 389 Original Medicare 389 Traditional Program Medicare Supplement
Policies 393 Part C—Medicare Advantage 396 Part D—Prescription Drug
Coverage 397 The Financial Condition of
Medicare 399 Proposals for Reform 401
Long-Term Care Insurance 402 Nature of the Long-Term Care
Exposure 402 Inadequacy of Medicare for Long-Term
Care Needs 402 Development of LTC Insurance 403 Coverage of LTC Policies 404 Cost of LTC Insurance 406 The Life Insurance Accelerated Benefits
Alternative to LTC 407 Combination Policies 407
Medicaid Planning 408 Statutory Restrictions 408 Spousal Impoverishment
Provisions 408 Estate Recovery 409 Long-Term Care Partnership
Programs 409
Chapter 23 Employee Benefits and Other Business Uses of Life and Health Insurance 412
Employee Benefits Generally 413 Group Life and Health Insurance as Employee
Benefits 414 Group Term Life Insurance 414 Group Ordinary Life Insurance 414 Group Paid-Up Life Insurance 414 Group Universal Life 415 Survivor Income Benefit Insurance 415 Retired Lives Reserve 415
Funding Issues 415 Funding through a 501(c)(9) Trust 416
Pensions 417 Legislation Affecting Pension Plans 417 Qualification Requirements 418 Funding Pensions 420 Trusts and Insurance Companies 421
Erisa Pension Plan Termination Insurance 423 Accounting For Defined Benefit Plans 425 Plan De-Risking and Longevity Risk
Transfer 425 Cafeteria Employee Benefit Plans 426 Some Specialized Uses of Life Insurance in
Business 427 Business Continuation Insurance 427 Key-Person Insurance 428 Split-Dollar Plan 428 Deferred Compensation 429 Corporate-Owned Life Insurance 429
Summary 430
SECTION THREE PROPERTY AND LIABILITY INSURANCE
Chapter 24 The Homeowners Policy—General Provisions 432
The Homeowners Policy Program 432 Historical Development 432 General Nature of the Homeowners
Program 433 Homeowners Section I Coverage 433
Section I Coverages: An Overview 433 Perils Insured 434 Dwelling and Other Structures
Coverage 434 Personal Property Coverage 437 Loss of Use Coverage 440 Additional Coverages 440
Other Provisions 443 Section I Conditions 443 General Conditions Applicable to Sections
I and II 445
Chapter 25 The Homeowners Policy Forms 448
Differences Among Homeowners Forms 448 Homeowners 2 Broad Form 448
xxii CONTENTS
Homeowners 3 Special Form 449 Homeowners 4 Contents Broad
Form 454 Homeowners 5 Comprehensive
Form 455 Homeowners 6 Condominium
Unit–Owners Form 456 Homeowners 8 Modified Coverage
Form 457 Homeowners Section I Optional
Coverages 458 Optional Perils 458 Other Endorsements 459
Chapter 26 Other Personal Forms of Property Insurance 462
Monoline Fire Dwelling Program 463 Current Dwelling Program 463 Eligibility 463 Coverages under the Dwelling
Program 463 Endorsements to the Dwelling Program
Forms 464 Mobilehome Program 465
Eligibility 465 Coverage on the Mobilehome 465
Flood Insurance 466 General Nature of the Program 466 The Flood Insurance Policy 468
Inland Marine Coverage For the Individual 471 Personal Inland Marine Floaters 471 Scheduled Personal Property
Endorsement 471 Insurance on Watercraft 474
Buying Property Insurance For the Individual 475 Pricing and Cost Considerations 475 Choosing the Form 476 Tailoring the Coverage under the
Homeowners Policy 476 Flood Insurance 477
Title Insurance 477 Torrens System 478
Chapter 27 Negligence and Legal Liability 480
Criminal and Tortious Behavior 481 Negligence and Legal Liability 481
There Must Be Negligence 481 There Must Be Damage or Loss 484 Negligence Must Be the Proximate Cause
of the Damage 485 Defenses to Negligence 488
Possible Changes In the Tort System 490 Summary 492
Chapter 28 General Liability Insurance for the Individual 494
Liability Insurance In General 494 Types of Liability Insurance 495 Comprehensive Personal Liability
Coverage 495 General Nature of the Coverage 496 Personal Liability Coverage 496 Medical Payments to Others 503 Additional Coverages 504 Section II Conditions 505 Cost of Personal Liability
Insurance 506 Optional Personal Liability
Endorsements 506 Professional Liability Insurance 507
Malpractice Insurance 507 Errors and Omissions Insurance 508
Umbrella Liability Policy 508 Exclusions under the Umbrella Liability
Policy 509 Cost of the Umbrella 510
Chapter 29 The Automobile and its Legal Environment 512
A Brief Overview of Automobile Coverages 513 Automobile Liability Insurance 513 Medical Payments Coverage 513 Physical Damage Coverage 513 Uninsured Motorists Coverage 513
Legal Liability and the Automobile 513 Vicarious Liability and the
Automobile 513 Guest Hazard Statutes 514 Automobile Liability Insurance and the
Law 515 Insurance for High-Risk Drivers 517
The Automobile Insurance Problem and Changes in the Tort System 519
CONTENTS xxiii
Criticisms of the Traditional System 519 The No-Fault Concept 519
Automobile Insurance Rates 524 The Shifting View of Auto Insurance 526
Chapter 30 The Personal Auto Policy 529
General Nature of the Personal Auto Policy 529 Eligibility 530 Policy Format 530
Liability Coverage 531 Liability Insuring Agreement 531 Liability Exclusions 533 Other Liability Coverage
Provisions 535 Medical Payments Coverage 536
Medical Payments Insurance Agreement 536
Medical Payments Exclusions 536 Limitations Applicable to Medical
Payment Recoveries 537 Uninsured Motorist Coverage 537
Uninsured Motorist Insuring Agreement 537
Underinsured Motorist Coverage 539 Physical Damage Coverage 539
Physical Damage Insuring Agreement 539
Physical Damage Exclusions 541 Other Physical Damage
Provisions 542 Policy Conditions 543
Part E—Duties after an Accident or Loss 543
Part F—General Provisions 544 Endorsements to the Pap 545
Extended Nonowned Coverage 545 Named Non-Owner Policy 545 Miscellaneous Type Vehicle
Endorsement 546 Buying Automobile Insurance 548
Liability Coverage 548 Medical Payments Coverage 549 Physical Damage Coverage 549 Uninsured Motorist Coverage 550 Cost Differences among
Companies 550 Summary 550
Chapter 31 COMMERCIAL PROPERTY INSURANCE 552
Commercial Property Coverage 553
Commercial Property Direct Loss Coverages 554 Commercial Property Coverage
Policies 554 Building and Personal Property Coverage
Form 555 Blanket Insurance 561 Reporting Form Coverage 561 Builder’s Risk Coverage Form 562 Condominium Association Coverage
Form 562 Condominium Commercial Unit-Owner’s
Coverage Form 562 Standard Property Policy 562 Plate Glass Insurance 562
Commercial Property Coverage For Indirect Loss 562 Business Interruption Insurance 563 Extra Expense Insurance 563 Contingent Business Interruption and Extra
Expenses 564 Leasehold Interest Insurance 564 Rain Insurance 565
Boiler and Machinery Insurance 565 The ISO Breakdown Protection Coverage
Form 565 Direct Damage Equipment
Coverages 566 Indirect Loss Boiler and Machinery
Coverages 567 Deductibles 567 Suspension 567
Transportation Coverages 568 Ocean Marine Insurance 568 Inland Marine Insurance 569
The National Flood Insurance Program 572 The General Property Form Flood
Insurance Policy 573 Nonresidential Condominiums 573
Insurance Against Dishonesty 573 Dishonesty Insurance Coverage
Triggers 573 The ISO Crime Insurance Program 574 Employee Crime Coverages 574 Nonemployee Crime Coverages 576
Package Policies For Business Firms 578
xxiv CONTENTS
Commercial Package Policy 578 Businessowners Policy 578
Summary 579
Chapter 32 Commercial Liability Insurance 582
Employers Liability and Workers Compensation 583 Workers Compensation Policy 583
General Liability Insurance 585 General Liability Exposures 585 Commercial General Liability
Coverage 587 Occurrence-First-Reported Coverage
593 Other Portfolio Liability Coverages 594 Miscellaneous General Liability
Coverages 594 Cyber Liability Insurance 595 Commercial Automobile Insurance 596
Business Auto Coverage Form 597 Garage Coverage Form 599 Auto Dealers Coverage Form 600 Trucking 600
Insurance For Bailees 602 Bailee Liability 602 Bailee Liability Coverages 603
Aviation Insurance 604 Excess Liability and Umbrella Liability
Coverage 604 Excess Liability Distinguished from
Umbrella Liability Contracts 605 Umbrella Liability Policies 605
Chapter 33 Surety Bonds, Trade Credit, and Financial Guaranty Insurance 609
Surety Bonds 610 Suretyship Distinguished from
Insurance 610 Contract Bonds 611 Judicial Bonds 611 License and Permit Bonds 613 Public Official Bonds 613 Miscellaneous Bonds 613
Trade Credit Insurance 614 Specific-Account versus Whole-Turnover
Coverage 614 Proportional versus Excess-of-Loss
Coverage 615 Credit Insurance in Securitization of
Accounts Receivable 615 Collection Service 615
Financial Guaranty Insurance 616 Public Finance Insurance 616 Structured Finance Insurance 616 FGI and the Financial Crisis 617 Regulation 617
Mortgage Guaranty Insurance 617
Chapter 34 Insurance in the Future (Online) 620
Glossary G-1 Author Index I-1 Subject Index I-3
■
CHAPTER 1
THE PROBLEM OF RISK
■
CHAPTER OBJECTIVES
When you have finished this chapter, you should be able to do the following:
• Define and explain the meaning of the term risk • Distinguish among the terms risk, peril, and hazard • Identify and explain the classes of hazards • Differentiate between pure risk and speculative risk • Differentiate between fundamental and particular risk • Describe the categories into which pure risk may be subdivided • Identify and explain the principal methods of handling risk
You see the mangled metal of two cars that have collided on an interstate highway. A fire engine with its siren screaming roars down the street. A building in your neighborhood burns, or you see an ambulance racing to the hospital. Such tragic events arouse your interest and emotions. After the noise and excitement have died down, you are grateful that the loss did not happen to you and you may feel sorry for whoever suffered the loss. But you’re glad that it wasn’t you. Losses like these happen to some people, whereas others go along happily, free from misfortune. The fact that these losses or similar events could happen to you, and the fact that you can’t tell for sure whether or not they will, is a condition we call risk. Risk is a pervasive con- dition of human existence. Although our instinctive
understanding of the concept of risk is clear enough, terms that have a simple meaning in everyday usage sometimes have a specialized connotation when used in a particular field of study. In this chapter, we will examine the concept of risk as the fundamental problem with which insurance deals. In addition, we will examine several related concepts.
THE CONCEPT OF RISK
It would seem that the term risk is a simple enough notion. When someone states there is risk in a particular situation, the listener understands
1
2 SECTION ONE RISK, INSURANCE, AND RISK MANAGEMENT
what is meant: In the given situation, there is uncertainty about the outcome, and the possi- bility exists that the outcome will be unfavor- able. This loose, intuitive notion of risk, which implies a lack of knowledge about the future and the possibility of some adverse consequence, is satisfactory for conversational usage, but for our purpose, a somewhat more rigid definition is desirable.
Economists, statisticians, decision theorists, and insurance theorists have long discussed the con- cepts of risk and uncertainty in an attempt to con- struct a definition of risk that is useful for analysis in each field of investigation. So far, they have not been able to agree on a single definition that can be used in each field. A definition of risk that is suit- able for the economist or statistician may be worth- less as an analytic tool for the insurance theorist. Because each group treats a different body of sub- ject matter, each requires a different concept of risk. Although the statistician, the decision theorist, and the insurance theorist use the term risk, each may mean something different.
Insurance is in its infancy as a body of theory. As a result, we find contradictory definitions of risk throughout the literature dealing with this phenomenon from an insurance point of view. One reason for these contradictions is that insu- rance theorists have attempted to borrow the def- initions of risk used in other fields. Surprising as it may seem, insurance text writers have not been able to agree on a definition of this basic concept.
To compound the problem, the term risk is used by people in the insurance business to mean either a peril insured against (e.g., fire is a risk to which most property is exposed) or a person or property protected by insurance (e.g., many insurance com- panies believe young drivers are not good risks). In this text, however, we will use the term in its general meaning to indicate a situation in which an expo- sure to loss exists.
Current Definitions of Risk
If we were to survey the best-known insurance text- books used in colleges and universities today, we would find a general lack of agreement concerning
the definition of risk.1 Although the insurance theo- rists have not agreed on a universal definition, there are common elements in all the definitions: indeter- minacy and loss.
• The notion of an indeterminate outcome is implicit in all definitions of risk: The outcome must be in question. For risk to exist, there must be at least two possible outcomes. If we know for cer- tain that a loss will occur, there is no risk. Invest- ment in a capital asset, for example, usually involves a realization that the asset is subject to physical depreciation and its value will decline. Here, the outcome is certain, so there is no risk.
• At least one of the possible outcomes is undesir- able. This may be a loss in the generally accepted sense in which something the individual possesses is lost, or it may be a gain smaller than the gain that was possible. For example, the investor who fails to take advantage of an opportunity “loses” the gain that might have been made. The investor faced with the choice between two stocks may be said to lose if he or she chooses the one that increases in value less than the alternative.
Our Definition of Risk
We define risk as a condition of the real world in which there is an exposure to adversity. More specifically,
Risk is a condition in which there is a possibility of an adverse deviation from a desired outcome that is expected or hoped for.
First, in this definition, risk is a condition of the real world; it is a combination of circumstances in the external environment. Second, in this combina- tion of circumstances, there is a possibility of loss. When we say that an event is possible, we mean that it has a probability between zero and one; it is neither impossible nor definite. Third, there is no requirement that the possibility be measurable but only that it must exist. We may or may not be able
1 The term risk is variously defined as (1) the chance of loss, (2) the possibility of loss, (3) uncertainty, (4) the dispersion of actual from expected results, or (5) the probability of any out- come different from the one expected.
CHAPTER 1 THE PROBLEM OF RISK 3
to measure the degree of risk, but the probability of the adverse outcome must be between zero and one.2
The undesirable event is described as “an adverse deviation from a desired outcome that is expected or hoped for.” The reference to a desired outcome that is either expected or hoped for contemplates individual and aggregate loss exposures. The indi- vidual hopes that adversity will not occur, and it is the possibility that this hope will not be met that constitutes risk. If you own a house, you hope that it will not catch fire. When you make a wager, you hope that the outcome will be favorable. That the outcome in either event may be something other than what you hope for constitutes the possibility of loss or risk.
In the case of an insurer, actuaries predict some specified number and amount of losses and charge a premium based on this expectation. The amount of predicted losses is the desired outcome that is expected by the insurer. For the insurer, risk is the possibility that losses will deviate adversely from what is expected.
Uncertainty and Its Relationship to Risk
Because the term uncertainty is often used in connection with the term risk (sometimes even interchangeably), it seems appropriate to explain the relationship between the two terms.
The most widely held meaning of uncertainty refers to a state of mind characterized by doubt, based on a lack of knowledge about what will or will not happen in the future. It is the opposite of
2 We measure probability on an imaginary ruler, marked at one end with a zero and unity at the other. The high end of the scale, marked unity, represents absolute certainty. Any proposi- tion about which there is no doubt whatsoever finds its place at this point on the scale. For example, the probability that the reader will eventually die is equal to 1 because we will all die. Using the letter p to stand for probability, we would write p = 1. The bottom end of the scale, marked zero, represents absolute impossibility. The probability that the reader could run a mile in 30 seconds is zero because failure would be absolutely certain. The statistician here would write p = 0. Events that are neither certain nor impossible lie between the two ends of our imagi- nary ruler and are assigned values that vary with the likelihood of their occurrence. Thus, the probability of drawing the ace of spades from a deck of cards is 1/52, or .019. The probability of drawing any ace is 1/13; the probability of drawing a black card is 1/2, or .5.
certainty, which is a conviction or certitude about a particular situation. A student says “I am certain I will get an A in this course,” which means the same as “I am positive I will get an A in this course.” Both statements reflect a conviction about the outcome. Uncertainty, on the other hand, is the opposite mental state. If one says “I am uncertain what grade I am going to get in this course,” the statement reflects a lack of knowledge about the outcome. Uncertainty, then, is simply a psychological reaction to the absence of knowledge about the future.3
The existence of risk—a condition or combination of circumstances in which there is a possibility of loss—creates uncertainty on the part of individuals when that risk is recognized.
The individual’s conviction or lack thereof (certainty or uncertainty) about a specific fact or situation may or may not coincide with the condi- tions of the real world. The student who says “I am certain I will get an A in this course” may actually get a B, a C, a D, or even an F. Uncertainty varies with the knowledge and attitudes of the person. Different attitudes are possible for different individuals under identical conditions of the real world. It is possible, for example, for a person to experience uncertainty in a situation in which he or she imagines there is a chance of loss but where no chance of loss exists. Similarly, an individual may feel no uncertainty regarding a particular risk when the exposure to loss is not recognized. Whether or not a risk is recog- nized, however, does not alter its existence. When there is a possibility of loss, risk exists whether or not the person exposed to loss is aware of the risk.4
3 In addition to its meaning as a psychological phenomenon, a second possible meaning of the term uncertainty relates to prob- ability and is contrasted with a second meaning of certainty: a situation in which the probability of an event is 100 percent. An event may be said to be impossible (probability = 0), certain (probability = 1), or uncertain. Used in reference to the like- lihood of an event, uncertain means that the probability is judged to be between 0 and 1. 4 Some authors equate our notion of uncertainty with subjective risk, which is a person’s perception of risk. An individual may perceive risk where it does not exist. (Navigators in Columbus’s day perceived a risk of falling off the edge of the world.) They may fail to perceive risk when it does exist. The distinction between objective risk and subjective risk (i.e., between risk and uncertainty) is important because subjective risk affects the decisions people make. Ideally, they should make decisions based on actual risk (i.e., objective risk). Better information reduces uncertainty (improves subjective risk estimates) and leads to better decisions.
4 SECTION ONE RISK, INSURANCE, AND RISK MANAGEMENT
The Degree of Risk
It is intuitively obvious that there are some situations in which the risk is greater than in other situations. Just as we should agree on what we mean when we use the term risk, we should agree on the way(s) in which risk can be measured. Precisely what is meant when we say that one alternative involves “more risk” or “less risk” than another?