Loading...

Messages

Proposals

Stuck in your homework and missing deadline? Get urgent help in $10/Page with 24 hours deadline

Get Urgent Writing Help In Your Essays, Assignments, Homeworks, Dissertation, Thesis Or Coursework & Achieve A+ Grades.

Privacy Guaranteed - 100% Plagiarism Free Writing - Free Turnitin Report - Professional And Experienced Writers - 24/7 Online Support

Here are the data for the past 21 months for actual sales of a particular product:

10/11/2020 Client: arwaabdullah Deadline: 3 days

Problem 18-4

Here are the data for the past 21 months for actual sales of a particular product:

LAST YEAR

THIS YEAR

January

365

300

February

455

375

March

400

375

April

430

455

May

432

440

June

505

380

July

400

385

August

320

305

September

395

365

October

500

November

590

December

490

Develop a forecast for the fourth quarter using a three-quarter, weighted moving average. Weight the most recent quarter 0.50, the second most recent 0.25, and the third 0.25. Do the problem using quarters, as opposed to forecasting separate months. (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.)

Forecast for the fourth quarter

Explanation:

Third most recent quarter 300 + 375 + 375 = 1,050

Second most recent quarter 455 + 440 + 380 = 1,275

Most recent quarter 385 + 305 + 365 = 1,055

WMA = (0.25 × 1,050) + (0.25 × 1,275) + (0.50 × 1,055) = 1,108.75

References

WorksheetDifficulty: Challenge

Problem 18-4Learning Objective: 18-02 Evaluate demand using quantitative forecasting models.

Problem 18-7

The following table contains the demand from the last 10 months:

MONTH

ACTUAL DEMAND

1

32

2

35

3

36

4

38

5

41

6

39

7

39

8

41

9

44

10

40

a.

Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for these data using an α of 0.30 and an initial forecast (F1) of 32. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)

Month

Exponential Smoothing

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

b.

Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend forecast for these data using an α of 0.30, a δ of 0.20, an initial trend forecast (T1) of 1.00, and an initial exponentially smoothed forecast (F1) of 31. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)

Month

FITt

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

c-1.

Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the last nine months of forecasts. (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.)

MAD

Single exponential smoothing forecast

Exponential smoothing with trend forecast

c-2.

Which is best?

Exponential smoothing with trend forecast

Single exponential smoothing forecast

Explanation:

a. to c.

Month

Demand

Exponential Smoothing

Absolute Deviation

Tt

Ft

FITt

Absolute Deviation

1

32

32.00

1.00

31.00

32.00

2

35

32.00

3.00

1.00

32.00

33.00

2.00

3

36

32.90

3.10

1.12

33.60

34.72

1.28

4

38

33.83

4.17

1.20

35.10

36.30

1.70

5

41

35.08

5.92

1.30

36.81

38.11

2.89

6

39

36.86

2.14

1.47

38.98

40.45

1.45

7

39

37.50

1.50

1.38

40.02

41.40

2.40

8

41

37.95

3.05

1.24

40.68

41.92

0.92

9

44

38.87

5.13

1.18

41.64

42.82

1.18

10

40

40.41

0.41

1.25

43.17

44.42

4.42

MAD

3.16

2.03

Based upon the MAD of each forecast, the exponential smoothing with trend is the better forecasting model.

References

WorksheetDifficulty: Challenge

Problem 18-7Learning Objective: 18-02 Evaluate demand using quantitative forecasting models.

Problem 18-10

The number of cases of merlot wine sold by the Connor Owen winery in an eight-year period is as follows:

YEAR

CASES OF MERLOT WINE

2005

291

2006

377

2007

419

2008

477

2009

379

2010

521

2011

431

2012

397

Using an exponential smoothing model with an alpha value of 0.40, estimate the smoothed value calculated as of the end of 2012. Use the average demand for 2005 through 2007 as your initial forecast for 2008, and then smooth the forecast forward to 2012. (Round your intermediate calculations and final answer to the nearest whole number.)

Forecast for 2012

Explanation:

Year

Demand

F(t)

2005

291

2006

377

2007

419

2008

477

362

2009

379

408

2010

521

396

2011

431

446

2012

397

440

References

WorksheetDifficulty: Challenge

Problem 18-10Learning Objective: 18-02 Evaluate demand using quantitative forecasting models.

Problem 18-15

Historical demand for a product is

DEMAND

January

16

February

14

March

18

April

16

May

19

June

18

a.

Using a weighted moving average with weights of 0.50 (June), 0.20 (May), and 0.30 (April), find the July forecast. (Round your answer to 1 decimal place.)

July forecast

b.

Using a simple three-month moving average, find the July forecast. (Round your answer to 1 decimal place.)

July forecast

c.

Using single exponential smoothing with α = 0.20 and a June forecast = 12, find the July forecast. (Round your answer to 1 decimal place.)

July forecast

d.

Using simple linear regression analysis, calculate the regression equation for the preceding demand data. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your intercept value to 1 decimal place and slope value to 2 decimal places.)

Y = + t

e.

Using the regression equation in d, calculate the forecast for July. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answer to 1 decimal place.)

July forecast

Explanation:

a.

FJuly = 0.50(18) + 0.20(19) + 0.30(16) = 17.6

b.

FJuly = (18 + 19 + 16)/3 = 17.7

c.

FJuly = FJune + α(AJune – FJune) = 12 + 0.20(18 − 12) = 13.2

d.

t

y

ty

t2

January

1

16

16

1

February

2

14

28

4

March

3

18

54

9

April

4

16

64

16

May

5

19

95

25

June

6

18

108

36

Total

21

101

365

91

Average

3.5

16.8

= 3.5

= 16.833

Y = a + bt = 14.5 + 0.66t

e.

FJuly, where July is the 7th month.

Y = a + bt = 14.5 + 0.66(7) = 19.1

References

WorksheetDifficulty: Challenge

Problem 18-15Learning Objective: 18-02 Evaluate demand using quantitative forecasting models.

Problem 18-22

Your manager is trying to determine what forecasting method to use. Based upon the following historical data, calculate the following forecast and specify what procedure you would utilize.

MONTH

ACTUAL DEMAND

1

61

2

64

3

67

4

66

5

71

6

70

7

73

8

74

9

74

10

83

11

84

12

86

a.

Calculate the simple three-month moving average forecast for periods 4–12. (Round your answers to 3 decimal places.)

Month

Three-Month Moving Average

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

b.

Calculate the weighted three-month moving average for periods 4–12 using weights of 0.40 (for the period t−1); 0.40 (for the period t−2), and 0.20 (for the period t−3). (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 1 decimal place.)

Month

Three-Month Weighted Moving Average

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

c.

Calculate the single exponential smoothing forecast for periods 2–12 using an initial forecast (F1) of 66 and an α of 0.30. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 3 decimal places.)

Month

Single Exponential Smoothing Forecast

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

d.

Calculate the exponential smoothing with trend component forecast for periods 2–12 using an initial trend forecast (T1) of 1.70, an initial exponential smoothing forecast (F1) of 65, an α of 0.30, and a δ of 0.20. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 3 decimal places.)

Month

Exponential Smoothing with Trend

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

e-1.

Calculate the mean absolute deviation (MAD) for the forecasts made by each technique in periods 4–12. (Do not round intermediate calculations. Round your answers to 3 decimal places.)

Mean Absolute Deviation

Three-month moving average

Three-month weighted moving average

Single exponential smoothing forecast

Exponential smoothing with trend

e-2.

Which forecasting method do you prefer?

Three-month moving average

Three-month weighted moving average

Single exponential smoothing forecast

Exponential smoothing with trend forecast

*******Explanation: see second page for chart

a. to e.

Single Exponential Smoothing

Exponential Smoothing with Trend

Month (t)

Demand

Three-Month Moving Average

Absolute Deviation

Three-Month Weighted Moving Average

Absolute Deviation

Ft

Absolute Deviation

Ft

Tt

FITt

Absolute Deviation

1

61

66.000

65.000

1.700

66.700

2

64

64.500

64.990

1.358

66.348

3

67

64.350

65.644

1.217

66.861

4

66

64.000

2.000

64.6

1.400

65.145

0.855

66.903

1.225

68.128

2.128

5

71

65.667

5.333

66.0

5.000

65.402

5.598

67.490

1.098

68.587

2.413

6

70

68.000

2.000

68.2

1.800

67.081

2.919

69.311

1.243

70.554

0.554

7

73

69.000

4.000

69.6

3.400

67.957

5.043

70.388

1.209

71.597

1.403

8

74

71.333

2.667

71.4

2.600

69.470

4.530

72.018

1.294

73.311

0.689

9

74

72.333

1.667

72.8

1.200

70.829

3.171

73.518

1.335

74.853

0.853

10

83

73.667

9.333

73.8

9.200

71.780

11.220

74.597

1.284

75.881

7.119

11

84

77.000

7.000

77.6

6.400

75.146

8.854

78.016

1.711

79.727

4.273

12

86

80.333

5.667

81.6

4.400

77.802

8.198

81.009

1.967

82.976

3.024

MAD

4.407

3.933

5.599

2.495

Based upon MAD, the exponential smoothing with trend forecast component appears to be the best method.

References

WorksheetDifficulty: Challenge

Problem 18-22Learning Objective: 18-02 Evaluate demand using quantitative forecasting models.

Homework is Completed By:

Writer Writer Name Amount Client Comments & Rating
Instant Homework Helper

ONLINE

Instant Homework Helper

$36

She helped me in last minute in a very reasonable price. She is a lifesaver, I got A+ grade in my homework, I will surely hire her again for my next assignments, Thumbs Up!

Order & Get This Solution Within 3 Hours in $25/Page

Custom Original Solution And Get A+ Grades

  • 100% Plagiarism Free
  • Proper APA/MLA/Harvard Referencing
  • Delivery in 3 Hours After Placing Order
  • Free Turnitin Report
  • Unlimited Revisions
  • Privacy Guaranteed

Order & Get This Solution Within 6 Hours in $20/Page

Custom Original Solution And Get A+ Grades

  • 100% Plagiarism Free
  • Proper APA/MLA/Harvard Referencing
  • Delivery in 6 Hours After Placing Order
  • Free Turnitin Report
  • Unlimited Revisions
  • Privacy Guaranteed

Order & Get This Solution Within 12 Hours in $15/Page

Custom Original Solution And Get A+ Grades

  • 100% Plagiarism Free
  • Proper APA/MLA/Harvard Referencing
  • Delivery in 12 Hours After Placing Order
  • Free Turnitin Report
  • Unlimited Revisions
  • Privacy Guaranteed

6 writers have sent their proposals to do this homework:

Instant Assignments
Peter O.
Calculation Guru
A+GRADE HELPER
Custom Coursework Service
Finance Homework Help
Writer Writer Name Offer Chat
Instant Assignments

ONLINE

Instant Assignments

Hey, I can write about your given topic according to the provided requirements. I have a few more questions to ask as if there is any specific instructions or deadline issue. I have already completed more than 250 academic papers, articles, and technical articles. I can provide you samples. I believe my capabilities would be perfect for your project. I can finish this job within the necessary interval. I have four years of experience in this field. If you want to give me the project I had be very happy to discuss this further and get started for you as soon as possible.

$55 Chat With Writer
Peter O.

ONLINE

Peter O.

Hello, I can assist you in writing attractive and compelling content on ganja and its movement globally. I will provide with valuable, informative content that you will appreciate. The content will surely hit your target audience. I will provide you with the work that will be according to the needs of the targeted audience and Google’s requirement.

$55 Chat With Writer
Calculation Guru

ONLINE

Calculation Guru

I see that your standard of work is to get content for articles. Well, you are in the right place because I am a professional content writer holding a PhD. in English, as well as having immense experience in writing articles for a vast variety of niches and category such as newest trends, health issues, entertainment, technology, etc and I will make sure your article has all the key pointers and relevant information, Pros, Cons and basically all the information that a perfect article needs with good research. Your article is guaranteed to be appealing, attractive, engaging, original and passed through Copyscape for the audience so once they start reading they keep asking for more and stay interested.

$55 Chat With Writer
A+GRADE HELPER

ONLINE

A+GRADE HELPER

Greetings! I’m very much interested to work on this project. I have read the details properly. I am a Professional Writer with over 5 years of experience, therefore, I can easily do this job. I will also provide you with TURNITIN PLAGIARISM REPORT. You can message me to discuss the detail. Why me? My goal is to offer services to you that are profitable. I don’t want you to place an order once and that’s it. For me to be successful, I need you to come back and order again. Give me the opportunity to work on your project. I wish to build a long-term relationship with you. We can have further discussion in chat. Thanks!

$55 Chat With Writer
Custom Coursework Service

ONLINE

Custom Coursework Service

Hey, Hope you are doing great :) I have read your project description. I am a high qualified writer. I will surely assist you in writing paper in which i will be explaining and analyzing the formulation and implementation of the strategy of Nestle. I will cover all the points which you have mentioned in your project details. I have a clear idea of what you are looking for. The work will be done according to your expectations. I will provide you Turnitin report as well to check the similarity. I am familiar with APA, MLA, Harvard, Chicago and Turabian referencing styles. I have more than 5 years’ experience in technical and academic writing. Please message me to discuss further details. I will be glad to assist you out.

$55 Chat With Writer
Finance Homework Help

ONLINE

Finance Homework Help

I have a Master’s degree and experience of more than 5 years in this industry, I have worked on several similar projects of Research writing, Academic writing & Business writing and can deliver A+ quality writing even to Short Deadlines. I have successfully completed more than 2100+ projects on different websites for respective clients. I can generally write 10-15 pages daily. I am interested to hear more about the project and about the subject matter of the writing. I will deliver Premium quality work without Plagiarism at less price and time. Get quality work by awarding this project to me, I look forward to getting started for you as soon as possible. Thanks!

$55 Chat With Writer

Let our expert academic writers to help you in achieving a+ grades in your homework, assignment, quiz or exam.

Similar Homework Questions

Formal analysis - 2 page paper on traits and triggers profile - Packaging center of the cell - Senior Seminar in Management - Access 2016 module 1 sam project 1a - The hobbit discussion questions and answers - Group project - Associate specialist job description - Starbucks after schultz how to sustain a competitive advantage - Week 7 Review of a Bill - 12kg in pounds and ounces - Business continuity plan template australia - Soc 120 week 2 assignment waste reduction - Georgy girl ukulele chords - To Understand Low Paying Salaries & Advocate For Higher Paying Salaries In The Field of Social Work - Zhang ailing sealed off text - Endnote university of adelaide - Hw - Pros and cons of nafta for the us - Membership in mensa requires an iq score above - Business level strategy of mcdonald's - Shrek the musical characters - The discount period is determined by the - Precipitation form crossword clue - Leadership in Healthcare Organization DW3 - Nursing reasrch-article crtique -article on attachment file - Wilmot proviso definition apush - Discussion - Toilet paper manufacturers in kenya - Booster power supply panel - After dinner mints aldi - Types of urban processes - Gibbs reflective cycle example essay business - AC/FI D4 - What is the shape of the sif4 molecule - Problem Statement - Pestalozzi philosophy of education pdf - She's dating the gangster moral lesson - Business Strategy - Given the following data direct materials used is - Nre account to indian account transfer - Border gateway protocol version 4 - How to do independent t test in spss - MANEGERIAL ECONOMICS - Fire prevention inspection and code enforcement 3rd edition answers - Linguistics for everyone 2nd edition answer key - Indoor go karting joondalup - The sun for sorrow will not show his head - Mk k545whi data socket module rj45 - Queensland christian soccer association - Car seat extension strap repco - Closed loop mrp system - Point line plane volume architecture - Brain tumors with restricted diffusion - Js prom class prophecy examples - How does the minister's black veil emphasize his individuality - Unit 107 support individuals with multiple conditions and or disabilities - Strategic it planning your 3 step process - Potassium nitrate water solubility - Aws pci dss compliance - Jenson vs eveleth mines - Organ leader and decision making - What is the journey of the magi about - A reduction in a monopolist's fixed costs would - American Government due 9/4/20 - AG - Energy required to melt ice - Qatar university mechanical engineering - Lab building proteins from rna - Committee on allied health education - As the project progresses, the actual finish times (afs) of completed activities will determine - Mia private number plate - Gpo box 9984 sydney nsw 2001 - Power point - Est quickstart qs1 data sheet - Texas political culture essay - Australian hvac design data - Remote Access Method Evaluation - Hp z230 tower workstation motherboard - Molecular weight data for a polypropylene material are tabulated - How to read solubility chart - Characteristics of youth culture - Nursing care plan for lymphadenopathy - Fayol, taylor and the gilbreths presumed that managers were not overseeing manual labor tasks. - Recommendation report example - Bio eithic dis - Ranson attack assignment - Nursing - Animal farm important events - How to use backtrack 5 to hack wifi - University of toronto writing centre - The double helix biointeractive worksheet answers - Marks origins of the modern world - Advanced Financial Accounting - Comprehensive Consolidation Method - Linux native file system - Thematic unit lesson plan - Taylormade r580 xd driver illegal - Trot and canter pole distances - Classical conditioning in everyday life - Modern mass floral design - Live lecture question only need answer