How to do a discounted cash flow analysis in excel

Determinants Of Capital Structure Spreadsheet/ Discounted Cash Flow Analysis Spreadsheet

Higgins, Analysis for Financial Management 1

Analysis for Financial Management

Robert C. Higgins

Spreadsheet Tutorial

to accompany Chapter 7

Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

Introduction: This spreadsheet tutorial will give you practice with the functions and tools in Excel

that allow you to value projects using discounted cash flow analysis. Follow the instructions on this

handout using the accompanying Excel spreadsheet. Use your spreadsheet to answer the questions

in each of the problems below. The instructions are based on Excel 2013 for a PC, so you may need

to make some adjustments if you are using a different spreadsheet, such as Calc or Excel for a Mac.

Instructions:

Project #1

Complete the cash flow projections and find the NPV for this project. Initial CAPX are $20,000

and depreciated on a 10-year MACRS schedule (the percentages of initial cost allowed for

depreciation under the current U.S. tax system). Net working capital required is $5,000 (just a one-

time increase) over the life of the project. Incremental sales are $22,000 per year and incremental

operating expenses are $18,000 per year. Assume that plant and equipment is disposed of at the end

of year 7 (it has no resale value). The tax rate is 30%. Assume a WACC of 9.3%.

Note that the spreadsheet is set up so that assumptions (things you can change later) go in the green

cells, and that the other cells contain formulas based on the assumptions.

1. Assumptions. Fill in the assumptions section first. Put in the tax rate across the whole row. Put

in the MACRS percentages. (The quickest way to do this is to copy them from the MACRS

schedule, then go to where you want to paste the values, select Paste Special, click on Values and

Transpose, and hit OK.) Enter the WACC and the resale value.

2. Balance sheet items. I find the cash flow projections are easier if we track two balance sheet

items, Net Working Capital and Net PPE. In the NWC line, enter the amount that will be required

for the project in each year. Note that the NWC must be in place by (the end of) Year 0, and would

be gone by (the end of) year 7. Keep in mind that this line is the level of NWC in each year, not the

change in NWC.

In the Net PPE line, we are going to track the book value of the assets we acquire for this project.

So in the green cell (Year 0) put the amount of the initial CAPX. In subsequent years the Net PPE

will be Net PPE from the previous year minus depreciation from that year. (Go ahead and enter this

formula even though depreciation isn’t entered yet.)

3. Getting EBIT(1–t). Enter sales and expense for Years 1-7. Enter depreciation expense for each

year, which is the initial value of PPE times the MACRS percentage for that year. Enter the

formula for EBIT, which is sales less operating expenses and depreciation. Enter taxes, which is the

tax rate times EBIT, and then enter the formula for EBIT(1–t).

Higgins, Analysis for Financial Management 2

4. CAPX. In year 0, CAPX is just equal to the initial value of our PPE, so just enter a formula that

references that cell.

The other thing we want to account for here is selling PPE at the end of the project. Put this in the

next line below CAPX. In Year 7 we get a cash inflow from selling the equipment for resale value

(RV), and the we also pay taxes on the gain over book value (BV). Here the RV is given in the

assumptions, and the BV is the value of Net PPE in Year 7. So enter a formula in Year 7 under

CAPX that reflects: RV– (RV–BV)*t where t is the tax rate.

5. Change in NWC. For the change in NWC (ΔNWC), for Year 0, we just make it equal to the

initial amount of NWC in Year 0 from above. For Years 1-7, the change in NWC is just that year’s

NWC minus the previous year’s NWC.

6. Cash Flows. Now we’re ready to calculate cash flow each year, and all we do is apply the

formula: EBIT(1–t)+Dep. –CAPX–ΔNWC. Enter this formula and copy it across for all years 0-7.

Then the only change necessary is to also add in the sale of PPE in year 7 to the year 7 cash flows.

7. NPV. Now enter the formula for NPV on the last line. Remember that the NPV function in

Excel discounts the first value by one year, so don’t put the initial cash flow inside the NPV

function. Add this in separately.

Q1: What is the NPV of the project under the given assumptions? ____________

Q2: How low would the initial investment have to be in order to make this project acceptable?

____________

Project #2

This time we won’t go through the spreadsheet step by step. You are given the assumptions and

you must complete the projections on your own.

1. Projecting cash flows. Complete the cash flow projections for project #2. Assume the

following:

 The project has a 10-year life.  Revenues are $70,000 in year 1 and increase $5,000 per year thereafter.  Operating expenses are 70% of revenues in each year.  Initial equipment purchases are $100,000, depreciated on a 7-year MACRS schedule.  Equipment purchased will have a resale value of $30,000 at the end of the project.  The tax rate is expected to be 35% over the life of the project.  The discount rate for the project is 11.5%  Net working capital of $25,000 will need to be maintained over the life of the project.

2. Finding the NPV. Use the NPV function to find the NPV of the project.

Q3: Under the above assumptions, what is the NPV of this project? ____________

3. Finding the IRR (in two ways). Use the Goal Seek tool to find the internal rate of return on

this project. Recall that the IRR is the discount rate that makes the NPV=0. So in Goal Seek set the

NPV to 0 by changing the discount rate. After finding the IRR using Goal Seek, verify the IRR

using the IRR function (enter on line 31, below the NPV).

Q4: What is the IRR under the above assumptions? ____________

Higgins, Analysis for Financial Management 3

4. Sensitivity analysis. Note on the spreadsheet that all green cells are assumptions that you can

modify. Return the discount rate back to 11.5%. Now find the NPV of this project under the

following alternative assumptions (change only one at a time, then change back before going to the

next one):

Q5: Initial equipment purchases are $115,000 _______________

Q6: Sales in Year 1 are only $60,000, but still rise by $5,000 thereafter ___________

Q7: The equipment has no resale value _______________

Q8: The discount rate is 13% _______________

5. Creating a two-dimensional data table. Do some additional sensitivity analysis by creating a two-

dimensional data table. Create a Data Table showing what the NPV would be with discount rates of 8%,

10%, 12%, 14%, and 16% and with initial CAPX of $80,000, $90,000, $100,000, $110,000, and

$120,000. Enter the discount rates in a row (e.g. in C33:G33) and the initial CAPX values in a column

just to the left (e.g. in B34:B38). In the cell in between these two (e.g. B33) enter the reference for the

cell containing the NPV (e.g. B30). Then to create the Data Table, highlight a block that includes all the

cells you just entered and go to Data | What-if Analysis | Data Table1. The row input cell is the cell

where you would input the discount rate, and the column input cell is the cell where you would in put

the initial CAPX. Click on OK and you will have a table showing the NPV under different

combinations of assumptions.

Q9: According to your table, what would the NPV be if the discount rate were 14% and initial CAPX

were $110,000? ____________

6. Accounting for straight-line depreciation. Change the depreciation method to straight line.

Assume a 10-year life. Recall that straight line would be the same each year: (initial book value-

salvage value)/life. Estimate salvage value as being equal to the resale value.

Q10: What is the NPV of the project with straight-line depreciation (under all other initial

assumptions in #1)? _____________

7. Creating a switch with data validation. You can make it easy to switch back and forth

between straight-line and MACRS with a switch. Put the switch in a new row in the assumptions

area (e.g. line 9). In the first cell (e.g. A9), put the label “Depreciation method”. Then in the next

cell (e.g. B9) you’d enter “MACRS” or “Straight-line” depending on the desired method. But to

make entering theses choice easier, we’ll use data validation. Click on B9, then go to DATA |

DATA VALIDATION. Under “Settings”, choose to allow “List” and check the box for “In-cell

dropdown”. Then under “Source” highlight two cells somewhere inconspicuous (I put them at the

bottom of the MACRS table) where you can enter the two possible inputs: MACRS and Straight-

line. Once you have done this, cell B9 will offer a drop-down box in which you can choose

between the two depreciation methods.

In addition to making data entry easier, data validation ensures that the next part of the switch

works properly. On row 17, where you have Depreciation, you must enter an IF function in each

cell. IF functions look like this =IF(condition to check, formula if condition is true, formula if

condition is false). So you enter three arguments in each IF function. In this case it would be

something like =IF($B9=“MACRS”, enter MACRS formula here, enter straight-line formula here).

If you enter this correctly and lock in the right cells, you only have to enter one formula, which you

can then copy all the way across the row.

1 In other versions of Excel it is under Data | Table.