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STUDENT WARNING: This course syllabus is from a previous semester archive and serves only as a preparatory reference. Please use this syllabus as a reference only until the professor opens the classroom and you have access to the updated course syllabus. Please do NOT purchase any books or start any work based on this syllabus; this syllabus may NOT be the one that your individual instructor uses for a course that has not yet started. If you need to verify course textbooks, please refer to the online course description through your student portal. This syllabus is proprietary material of APUS.

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School of Security and Global Studies

INTL454 Forecasting Terrorism

Credit Hours: 3 Length of Course: 8 Weeks

Prerequisite: none

Table of Contents

Instructor Information Evaluation Procedures

Course Description Grading Scale

Course Scope Course Outline

Course Objectives Policies

Course Delivery Method Online Library and Turnitin

Course Resources Selected Bibliography

Instructor Information

Instructor: Name and link to bio

Office Hours via Adobe Connect: [1 hour/wk if teaching one course, 2 hours/wk if teaching 2+ courses], and by appointment.

Please contact your instructor through the Messages tab in the

classroom.

After the class is over, instructor contact information: @mycampus.apus.edu.

Table of Contents

Course Description (Catalog)

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STUDENT WARNING: This course syllabus is from a previous semester archive and serves only as a preparatory reference. Please use this syllabus as a reference only until the professor opens the classroom and you have access to the updated course syllabus. Please do NOT purchase any books or start any work based on this syllabus; this syllabus may NOT be the one that your individual instructor uses for a course that has not yet started. If you need to verify course textbooks, please refer to the online course description through your student portal. This syllabus is proprietary material of APUS.

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INTL454 Forecasting Terrorism (3 credit hours)

This course examines the theoretical underpinnings of the phenomenon of

terrorism, actual and planned cases of chemical and biological weapons use and the modern threat of improvised weapons of mass destruction. The

course surveys traditional and newer methods of forecasting terrorism: intuition-based, profiling, conflict vulnerability analysis and prognosis (early

warning), etc. It concludes with a brief overview of the state of the terrorist

threat almost a decade after 9/11.

Table of Contents

Course Scope

As a 400-level course, this course provides a higher level of knowledge building on the material taught at the 300 level. The purpose and scope of

this course is to enable the student to build a deeper understanding of the discipline.

Table of Contents

Course Objectives

After successfully completing this course, you will be able to:

CO-1: Describe trends in the use of weapons of mass destruction by terrorists.

CO-2: Explain how WMD signatures and terrorist WMD strategy and precedents are critical in forecasting.

CO-3: Summarize the techniques found in terrorism intelligence forecasting

methodologies.

CO-4: Demonstrate how elements of the post-9/11 threat environment affect the ability to forecast terrorist WMD activity.

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STUDENT WARNING: This course syllabus is from a previous semester archive and serves only as a preparatory reference. Please use this syllabus as a reference only until the professor opens the classroom and you have access to the updated course syllabus. Please do NOT purchase any books or start any work based on this syllabus; this syllabus may NOT be the one that your individual instructor uses for a course that has not yet started. If you need to verify course textbooks, please refer to the online course description through your student portal. This syllabus is proprietary material of APUS.

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CO-5: Apply a terrorist forecasting methodology to a hypothetical attack scenario.

Table of Contents

Course Delivery Method

This course, delivered via distance learning, will enable students to complete

academic work in a flexible manner, completely online. Course materials and access to an online learning management system will be available to

each student. Online assignments are due by Sunday at 11:55 pm ET and include all written assignments, examinations, and research papers

submitted for grading. Weekly Forum questions (accomplished in groups in a Forum) require an initial response by Thursday at 11:55 pm ET, with all

other required responses due by Sunday at 11:55 pm ET. The assigned

faculty will support the students throughout this eight-week course.

Table of Contents

Course Resources

Required Course Textbooks

James J. F. Forest and Russell D. Howard. Weapons of Mass Destruction and

Terrorism, Second Edition. New York: McGraw Hill, 2013. The VitalSource e-book is provided via the APUS Bookstore.

Please visit http://apus.libguides.com/er.php and search by the course

number (ex: LITR210) to access your required resources.

John Hollywood, Diane Snyder, Kenneth N. McKay and John E. Boon. Out of

the Ordinary: Finding Hidden Threats by Analyzing Unusual Behavior* Rand, Santa Monica, CA, 2004. E-book available free on RAND site.

http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2004/RAND_MG1 26.pdf

Sundri Khalsa. Forecasting Terrorism: A Web-Based Approach. Occasional

Paper Number Eleven, Center for Strategic Intelligence research, Joint Military Intelligence College, 2004.

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https://mailbox.apus.edu/owa/redir.aspx?SURL=WRReHn4duPoo2x1kv1Fng2gLiqL_CELopMVDenBR06fdl6geOwDTCGgAdAB0AHAAOgAvAC8AYQBwAHUAcwAuAGwAaQBiAGcAdQBpAGQAZQBzAC4AYwBvAG0ALwBlAHIALgBwAGgAcAA.&URL=http%3a%2f%2fapus.libguides.com%2fer.php

http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2004/RAND_MG126.pdf

http://www.rand.org/content/dam/rand/pubs/monographs/2004/RAND_MG126.pdf

STUDENT WARNING: This course syllabus is from a previous semester archive and serves only as a preparatory reference. Please use this syllabus as a reference only until the professor opens the classroom and you have access to the updated course syllabus. Please do NOT purchase any books or start any work based on this syllabus; this syllabus may NOT be the one that your individual instructor uses for a course that has not yet started. If you need to verify course textbooks, please refer to the online course description through your student portal. This syllabus is proprietary material of APUS.

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https://edgetest.apus.edu/access/content/group/security-and-global- studies-

common/Intelligence%20Studies/INTL454/Course%20Texts/khalsa%20forec asting%20terrorism%20NDIC%20occasional%20paper%202004.pdf

Stephen M. Maurer, ed. WMD Terrorism Science and Policy Choices. MIT

Press, Cambridge, MA, 2009. http://site.ebrary.com/lib/apus/docDetail.action?docID=10326190

The following book is recommended:

Turabian, Kate L. 2014. A Manual for Writers of Research Papers, Theses, and Dissertations. 8th ed. The University of Chicago Press.

Required Readings

 Peer-reviewed journal articles, book chapters, external websites and

other assigned readings are found in the Lessons area of the classroom.

  All readings found in the APUS library have been consolidated into an

“E-Reserve” list located in the “Security and Global Studies” portal, INTL454 Course Guide. Instructions for accessing the E-Reserve list

are listed below and are also located in the corresponding “Lessons”

folder. If you’re already logged into the classroom, you can click on the following address: http://apus.campusguides.com/INTL454. After

entering the classroom, select “Library” in the left hand menu within Sakai. You will be redirected to the APUS library. Select

“Program/School Portals.” Select “Security and Global Studies.” Select “INTL454 Critical Analysis | Course Guide” from the dropdown menu (it

may take a minute to load). Select “E-Reserves tab” from the upper left corner of the menu. Select “Continue.”

 Weekly Lesson Notes and videos or audio files are found in the Lessons

area of the classroom.

Table of Contents

Evaluation Procedures

The course grade is based on the following assessments:

https://edgetest.apus.edu/access/content/group/security-and-global-studies-common/Intelligence%20Studies/INTL454/Course%20Texts/khalsa%20forecasting%20terrorism%20NDIC%20occasional%20paper%202004.pdf

https://edgetest.apus.edu/access/content/group/security-and-global-studies-common/Intelligence%20Studies/INTL454/Course%20Texts/khalsa%20forecasting%20terrorism%20NDIC%20occasional%20paper%202004.pdf

https://edgetest.apus.edu/access/content/group/security-and-global-studies-common/Intelligence%20Studies/INTL454/Course%20Texts/khalsa%20forecasting%20terrorism%20NDIC%20occasional%20paper%202004.pdf

https://edgetest.apus.edu/access/content/group/security-and-global-studies-common/Intelligence%20Studies/INTL454/Course%20Texts/khalsa%20forecasting%20terrorism%20NDIC%20occasional%20paper%202004.pdf

http://site.ebrary.com/lib/apus/docDetail.action?docID=10326190

http://apus.campusguides.com/INTL454

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STUDENT WARNING: This course syllabus is from a previous semester archive and serves only as a preparatory reference. Please use this syllabus as a reference only until the professor opens the classroom and you have access to the updated course syllabus. Please do NOT purchase any books or start any work based on this syllabus; this syllabus may NOT be the one that your individual instructor uses for a course that has not yet started. If you need to verify course textbooks, please refer to the online course description through your student portal. This syllabus is proprietary material of APUS.

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Discussion Forums – 25 percent

Each week, a discussion question is provided and posts should reflect an

assimilation of the readings. Students are required to provide a substantive initial post by Thursday at 11:55 pm ET and respond to 2 or more

classmates by Sunday 11:55 pm ET. Forum posts are graded on timeliness, relevance, knowledge of the weekly readings, and the quality of original

ideas.

Midterm Test - 10 percent

This assignment is an open book, timed exam to test knowledge and

assimilation of the course objectives. The use of required texts and readings from this course is mandatory.

Progress Assignment: Terrorism Intelligence Indicators Exercise -

15 percent

Specialized Exercise. One page effort reflecting your research and analysis.

Final Test - 20 percent

This assignment is an open book, timed exam to test knowledge and

assimilation of the course objectives. The use of required texts and readings from this course is mandatory.

Final Assignment: Research Analysis Paper – 30 percent

This assignment is an essay assignment to test knowledge and assimilation

of the course objectives. The exclusive use of required texts and readings from this course is mandatory.

Assignments Percentage

Discussion Forums

25 percent Midterm

Progress Assignment

Final Test Final Assignment

10 percent

15 percent

20 percent 30 percent

STUDENT WARNING: This course syllabus is from a previous semester archive and serves only as a preparatory reference. Please use this syllabus as a reference only until the professor opens the classroom and you have access to the updated course syllabus. Please do NOT purchase any books or start any work based on this syllabus; this syllabus may NOT be the one that your individual instructor uses for a course that has not yet started. If you need to verify course textbooks, please refer to the online course description through your student portal. This syllabus is proprietary material of APUS.

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Table of Contents

8 – Week Course Outline

Wee

k

Topic

Course

Objective(s)

Reading

s

Assignments

1 Introduction and

History of Terrorism. Atypical Signal

Analysis & Processing (ASAP) Methodology,

Architecture and Data.

CO-3 Summarize

the techniques

found in terrorism

intelligence forecasting

methodologies .

Maurer,

pp. 12- 14.

Forest & Howard,

pp. 29- 37.

RAND text, ch.

1-3.

Other Readings

in Lessons

link

Read Week 1

announcement and lesson plan

Post introduction and

syllabus acknowledgmen

t in Intro/Syllabus

Acknowledgmen t FORUM. Due

at end of week 1.

Graded forum assignment.

Due at end of

week 1

TOTAL 100 percent

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STUDENT WARNING: This course syllabus is from a previous semester archive and serves only as a preparatory reference. Please use this syllabus as a reference only until the professor opens the classroom and you have access to the updated course syllabus. Please do NOT purchase any books or start any work based on this syllabus; this syllabus may NOT be the one that your individual instructor uses for a course that has not yet started. If you need to verify course textbooks, please refer to the online course description through your student portal. This syllabus is proprietary material of APUS.