Intelligence from secrets to policy 7th edition

Intelligence

Seventh Edition

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Intelligence

From Secrets to Policy

Seventh Edition

Mark M. Lowenthal

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Library of Congress Cataloging-in-Publication Data

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Names: Lowenthal, Mark M.

Title: Intelligence : from secrets to policy / Mark M. Lowenthal.

Description: Seventh edition. | Los Angeles : CQ Press, [2017] | Includes bibliographical references and index.

Identifiers: LCCN 2016030817| ISBN 978-1-5063-4256-6

Subjects: LCSH: Intelligence service—United States. | Intelligence service.

Classification: LCC JK468.I6 L65 2016 | DDC 327.1273—dc23 LC record available at https://lccn.loc.gov/2016030817

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https://lccn.loc.gov/2016030817
For

Michael S. Freeman

1946–1999

Historian, Librarian, Friend

&

My Parents

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Contents

Tables, Figures, and Boxes Preface Acronyms Chapter 1. What Is “Intelligence”?

Why Have Intelligence Agencies? What Is Intelligence About? Key Terms Further Readings

Chapter 2. The Development of U.S. Intelligence Major Themes Major Historical Developments Key Terms Further Readings

Chapter 3. The U.S. Intelligence Community Alternative Ways of Looking at the Intelligence Community The Many Different Intelligence Communities Intelligence Community Relationships That Matter The Intelligence Budget Process Key Terms Further Readings

Chapter 4. The Intelligence Process—A Macro Look: Who Does What for Whom? Requirements Collection Processing and Exploitation Analysis and Production Dissemination and Consumption Feedback Thinking About the Intelligence Process Key Terms Further Readings

Chapter 5. Collection and the Collection Disciplines Overarching Themes Strengths and Weaknesses Conclusion Key Terms Further Readings

Chapter 6. Analysis Major Themes Analytical Issues

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Intelligence Analysis: An Assessment Key Terms Further Readings

Chapter 7. Counterintelligence Internal Safeguards External Indicators and Counterespionage Problems in Counterintelligence Leaks Economic Espionage National Security Letters Conclusion Key Terms Further Readings

Chapter 8. Covert Action The Decision-Making Process The Range of Covert Actions Issues in Covert Action Assessing Covert Action Key Terms Further Readings

Chapter 9. The Role of the Policy Maker The U.S. National Security Policy Process Who Wants What? The Intelligence Process: Policy and Intelligence Key Term Further Readings

Chapter 10. Oversight and Accountability Executive Oversight Issues Congressional Oversight Issues in Congressional Oversight Internal Dynamics of Congressional Oversight The Courts Conclusion Key Terms Further Readings

Chapter 11. The Intelligence Agenda: Nation-States The Primacy of the Soviet Issue The Emphasis on Soviet Military Capabilities The Emphasis on Statistical Intelligence The “Comfort” of a Bilateral Relationship Collapse of the Soviet Union Intelligence and the Soviet Problem

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The Current Nation-State Issue Key Terms Further Readings

Chapter 12. The Intelligence Agenda: Transnational Issues U.S. National Security Policy and Intelligence After the Cold War Intelligence and the New Priorities Cyberspace Terrorism Proliferation Narcotics Economics Demographics Health and the Environment Peacekeeping Operations Support to the Military Conclusion Key Terms Further Readings

Chapter 13. Ethical and Moral Issues in Intelligence General Moral Questions Issues Related to Collection and Covert Action Analysis-Related Issues Oversight-Related Issues Whistle-Blowers The Media Conclusion Further Readings

Chapter 14. Intelligence Reform The Purpose of Reform Issues in Intelligence Reform Conclusion Key Terms Further Readings

Chapter 15. Foreign Intelligence Services Britain China France Israel Russia Other Services Other Services in Brief Conclusion

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Further Readings Appendix 1. Additional Bibliographic Citations and Websites Appendix 2. Major Intelligence Reviews or Proposals Author Index Subject Index

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Tables, Figures, and Boxes

Tables

5.1 A Comparison of the Collection Disciplines 156 10.1 U.S. Intelligence Budget, 2007–2014 331

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Figures

3.1 The Intelligence Community: An Organizational View 45 3.2 Alternative Ways of Looking at the Intelligence Community: A Functional Flow View 46 3.3 Alternative Ways of Looking at the Intelligence Community: A Functional View 50 3.4 Alternative Ways of Looking at the Intelligence Community: A Budgetary View 69 3.5 The Intelligence Budget: Four Phases Over Three Years 70 4.1 Intelligence Requirements: Importance Versus Likelihood 80 4.2 The Intelligence Process: A Central Intelligence Agency View 88 4.3 The Intelligence Process: A Schematic 88 4.4 The Intelligence Process: Multilayered 89 5.1 Intelligence Collection: The Composition of the INTs 155 8.1 The Covert Action Ladder 257

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Boxes

The Terrorist Attacks on September 11, 2001: Another Pearl Harbor? 3 Policy Versus Intelligence: The Great Divide 6 “And ye shall know the truth . . . ” 8 Intelligence: A Working Concept 10 The Simplicity of Intelligence 47 Eight Simultaneous Budgets 67 Why Classify? 100 The Need for Photo Interpreters 116 Does GEOINT Have to Be an Image? 117 SIGINT Versus IMINT 127 Some Intelligence Humor 149 Metaphors for Thinking About Analysis 188 How Right How Often 210 Who Spies on Whom? 222 Why Spy? 226 Assassination: The Hitler Argument 268 The Assassination Ban: A Modern Interpretation 269 Policy Makers and Intelligence Collection 290 Intelligence Uncertainties and Policy 291 The Limits of Intelligence and Policy: Hurricane Katrina 292 Setting the Right Expectations 293 A Linguistic Aside: The Two Meanings of Oversight 304 Congressional Humor: Authorizers Versus Appropriators 314 Intelligence Budget Disclosure: Top or Bottom? 328 Iraq’s Nuclear Program: A Cautionary Tale 414 Analysts’ Options: A Cultural Difference 455

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Preface

In years past, when academics who taught courses on intelligence got together, one of the first questions they asked one another was, “What are you using for readings?” They asked because there was no standard text on intelligence. Available books were either general histories that did not suffice as course texts or academic discussions written largely for practitioners and aficionados, not for undergraduate or graduate students. Like many of my colleagues, I had long felt the need for an introductory text. I wrote the first edition of this book in 2000 to fill this gap in intelligence literature.

Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy is not a how-to book: It will not turn readers into competent spies or even better analysts. Rather, it is designed to give readers a firm understanding of the role that intelligence plays in making national security policy and insight into its strengths and weaknesses. The main theme of the book is that intelligence serves and is subservient to policy and that it works best—analytically and operationally— when tied to clearly understood policy goals.

The book has a U.S.-centric bias. I am most familiar with the U.S. intelligence establishment, and it is the largest, richest, and most multifaceted intelligence enterprise in the world. At the same time, readers with interests beyond the United States should derive from this book a better understanding of many basic issues in intelligence collection, analysis, and covert action and of the relationship of intelligence to policy.

This volume begins with a discussion of the definition of intelligence and a brief history and overview of the U.S. intelligence community. The core of the book is organized along the lines of the intelligence process as practiced by most intelligence enterprises: requirements, collection, analysis, dissemination, and policy. Each aspect is discussed in detail in terms of its role, strengths, and problems. The book’s structure allows the reader to understand the overall intelligence process and the specific issues encountered in each step of the process. The book examines covert action and counterintelligence in a similar vein. Three chapters explore the issues facing U.S. intelligence in terms of both nation-states and transnational issues and the moral and ethical issues that arise in intelligence. The book also covers intelligence reform and foreign intelligence services.

Intelligence has grown primarily out of courses that I have taught for many years: “The Role of Intelligence in U.S. Foreign Policy,” at the School for International and Public Affairs, Columbia University from 1994 to 2007; “Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy,” at the Zanvyl Krieger School of Arts and Sciences, the Johns Hopkins University since 2008; and “U.S. Intelligence” at the Paris Institute of Political Studies (Sciences Po), beginning in 2015. As I tell my students, I provide neither a polemic against intelligence nor an apology for it. This volume takes the view that intelligence is a normal function of government:

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Sometimes it works well; sometimes it does not. Any intelligence service, including that of the United States, can rightly be the recipient of both praise and criticism. My goal is to raise important issues and to illuminate the debate over them, as well as to provide context for the debate. I leave it to professors and students to come to their own conclusions. As an introduction to the subject of intelligence, the book, I believe, takes the correct approach in not asking readers to agree with the author’s views.

As an introductory text, the book is not meant to be the last word on the subject. It is intended instead as a starting point for a serious academic exploration of the issues inherent in intelligence. Each chapter concludes with a list of readings recommended for a deeper examination of relevant issues. Additional bibliographic citations and websites are provided in Appendix 1. Appendix 2 lists some of the most important reviews and proposals for change in the U.S. intelligence community since 1945.

This is the seventh edition of Intelligence. The major changes in each edition reflect the changes that have confronted the intelligence community since 2000. The second edition added material about the September 11 attacks and the beginning of the war on terrorists. The third edition covered the investigations into the September 11 attacks, the Iraq weapons of mass destruction (WMD) estimate and its aftermath, and the creation of the Director of National Intelligence (DNI), the most substantial change in U.S. intelligence since 1947. The fourth edition reflected several new areas: the actual implementation of the DNI reforms and their successes and strains; the ongoing legal, operational, and ethical issues raised by the war against terrorists; the growth of such transnational issues as WMD; and the growing politicization of intelligence in the United States, especially through the declassified use of national intelligence estimates (NIEs). In the fifth edition, many of the issues raised by the war against terrorists continued to be at issue as did the management of the overall community and the role of the DNI. At the same time, new issues such as cyberspace were more prominent. The sixth edition reflected an ongoing shift in U.S. intelligence priorities, as policy makers begin to de-emphasize terrorism to a degree, and the widespread repercussions of the Manning and Snowden leaks. This leaked intelligence remains and should be considered classified, despite the fact that it has been leaked. Therefore, I cannot discuss the details of some of these leaks or comment on their veracity unless there are official comments on the subject.

In the seventh edition, in addition to reassessing the still evolving cyberspace issue, including the issue of cyber as a new collection discipline, several major events have important intelligence implications: the Senate Intelligence Committee’s staff report on enhanced interrogation techniques, which has important implications for operations and for congressional oversight; the rise of the Islamic State, which is more than a terrorist group but less than a state; and the nuclear agreement with Iran. New sections have been added offering a brief summary of the major laws governing U.S. intelligence; domestic intelligence collection; a discussion of whistle-blowers, as opposed to leakers; and the growing field of financial intelligence. The chapter on foreign intelligence services has been

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extensively revised. The bibliographies have been updated; wherever possible, I have added World Wide Web links for ease of access.

Given the dynamic nature of intelligence, any textbook on the subject runs the risk of containing dated information. This may be an even greater problem here, given the fluid situation created by the leaks and the overall international situation. This replicates the intelligence analyst’s dilemma of needing to produce finished intelligence during changing circumstances. The risk cannot be avoided. However, I am confident that most aspects of intelligence—and certainly the main issues discussed—are more general, more long- standing, and less susceptible to being outdated rapidly than the ever-changing character of intelligence might suggest.

All statements of fact, opinion, or analysis expressed are those of the author and do not reflect the official positions or views of the Office of the DNI or any other U.S. government agency. Nothing in the contents should be construed as asserting or implying U.S. government authentication of information or DNI endorsement of the author’s views. This material has been reviewed by the intelligence community to prevent the disclosure of classified information.

Several words of thanks are in order: first, to my wife, Cynthia, and our children—Sarah and Adam—who have supported my part-time academic career despite the missed dinners it means. Cynthia also has been immensely supportive during the entire lengthy revision process. Next, thanks go to three friends and colleagues—the late Sam Halpern, Loch Johnson, and Jennifer Sims—who reviewed early drafts and made substantial improvements. The following scholars also provided extremely helpful comments for the previous editions: William Green, California State University at San Bernardino; Patrick Morgan, University of California, Irvine; Donald Snow, University of Alabama; James D. Calder, University of Texas at San Antonio; and Robert Pringle, University of Kentucky. Anthony Spadaro and Jim Barnett provided me and many other colleagues with a constant stream of updated articles across the range of intelligence issues. Hayden Peake kept me apprised of new books and articles on foreign intelligence services. Jason Healey provided useful comment and discussion about intelligence and cyberspace. None of these individuals is responsible for any remaining flaws or any of the views expressed. I would also like to thank the reviewers for the sixth and previous editions: L. Larry Boothe, Utah State University; Matthew Donald, Ohio State University; John Syer, California State University, Sacramento; John Comiskey, Monmouth University; Peter Hickman, Arizona State University; Paul M. Johnson, Auburn University; Michael Bogart, University of Maryland University College; Alan More, Notre Dame College; Michael Siler, California State University; Peter Olesen, University of Maryland University College; Loch Johnson, University of Georgia; Gary Kessler, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University; Greg Moore, Notre Dame College; and James Calder and Glen Schaffer, University of Texas–San Antonio. Moreover, I have been most fortunate to collaborate with the following at CQ Press: Carrie Brandon, senior acquisitions editor; Duncan Marchbank, editorial assistant;

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David Felts, production editor; and Jared Leighton, copy editor. Working with them has been most enjoyable. Thanks to Space Imaging, Inc., for supplying the series of overhead images of San Diego.

As I have in past editions, I continue to thank all of my colleagues across the intelligence community for all they have taught me and for their dedication to their work. Finally, thanks to all of my students over the years, whose comments and discussions have greatly enriched my courses and this book. Again, I am solely responsible for any shortcomings in this volume.

Mark M. Lowenthal

Reston, Virginia

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Acronyms

ABI Activity-based intelligence ABM Antiballistic missile ACH Alternative competing hypothesis ADDNI Assistant deputy director of national intelligence AGI Advanced geospatial intelligence AIDS Acquired immune deficiency syndrome AIPAC American Israel Public Affairs Committee Aman Agaf ha-Modi’in (Military Intelligence) (Israel) AOR Area of responsibility ARC Analytic Resources Catalog ASAT Anti-satellite ASIO Australian Secret Intelligence Organisation ASIS Australian Secret Intelligence Service BDA Battle damage assessment BfV Bundesamt für Verfassungsschutz (Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution) (Germany) BND Bundesnachrichtendienst (Federal Intelligence Service) (Germany) BW Biological weapons CBW Chemical and biological weapons CCP Consolidated Cryptologic Program CDA Congressionally directed action CEO Chief executive officer CESG Communications Electronics Security Group (Britain) CI Counterintelligence CIA Central Intelligence Agency CIARDS CIA Retirement and Disability System CIC Counterintelligence Center CIG Central Intelligence Group CISEN Center for Investigation and National Security (Mexico) CMA Community Management Account CMC Central Military Commission (China) CNA Computer network attack CNC Counternarcotics Center CNE Computer network exploitation CNI National Intelligence Center (Mexico) CNR (1) coordonnateur national du renseignement (national intelligence coordinator); (2) conseil national du renseignement (national intelligence council) (both France)

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COCOM Combatant Command COI Coordinator of Information COIN Counterinsurgency COMINT Communications intelligence COO Chief operating officer COS Chief of station CRS Congressional Research Service CSE Communications Security Establishment (Canada) CSIS Canada’s Security Intelligence Service CSRS Counter Surveillance Reconnaissance System CTC Counterterrorism Center CT Counterterrorism CW Chemical weapons D&D Denial and deception DARP Defense Airborne Reconnaissance Program DBA Dominant battlefield awareness DC Deputies Committee (NSC) DCI Director of central intelligence DCIA Director of the Central Intelligence Agency DCP Defense Cryptologic Program DCRI Direction Centrale du Renseignement Intérieur (France) DCS Defense Clandestine Service DEA Drug Enforcement Administration DGIAP Defense General Intelligence Applications Program DGSE Direction Générale de la Sécurité Extérieure (General Directorate for External Security) (France) DHS Department of Homeland Security DI Directorate of Intelligence DIA Defense Intelligence Agency DICP Defense Intelligence Counterdrug Program DIS Defence Intelligence Staff (Britain) DISTP Defense Intelligence Special Technologies Program DITP Defense Intelligence Tactical Program DMZ Demilitarized zone DNI Director of national intelligence DO Directorate of Operations (CIA) DOD Department of Defense DOE Department of Energy DPSD Directoire de la Protection et de la Sécurité de la Défense (Directorate for Defense Protection and Security) (France) DRM Directoire du Renseignement Militaire (Directorate of Military Intelligence) (France)

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DS&T Directorate of Science and Technology (CIA) DSRP Defense Space Reconnaissance Program ELINT Electronic intelligence EO Electro-optical; Executive order EOD Entry on duty EU European Union ExCom Executive Committee FAPSI Federalnoe Agenstvo Pravitelstvennoi Svyazi I Informatsii (Federal Agency for Government Communications and Information) (Russia) FARC Fuerzas Armadas de Colombia (Colombia) FBI Federal Bureau of Investigation FBIS Foreign Broadcast Information Service FIA Future Imagery Architecture FININT Financial intelligence FISA Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Act FISC Foreign Intelligence Surveillance Court FISINT Foreign instrumentation intelligence FMV Full motion video FSB Federal’naya Sluzba Besnopasnoti (Federal Security Service) (Russia) GAO Government Accountability Office GCHQ Government Communications Headquarters (Britain) GEO Geosynchronous orbit GDIP General Defense Intelligence Program GDP Gross domestic product GEOINT Geospatial intelligence GNP Gross national product GRU Glavnoye Razvedyvatelnoye Upravlenie (Main Intelligence Administration) (Russia) HEO Highly elliptical orbit HPSCI House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence HSI Hyperspectral imagery HSINT Homeland security intelligence HSIP Homeland Security Intelligence Program HUMINT Human intelligence I&A Intelligence and Analysis I&W Indications and warning IAEA International Agency for Atomic Energy IC Intelligence community IG Inspector general IMINT Imagery (or photo) intelligence INF Intermediate nuclear forces INR Bureau of Intelligence and Research (Department of State)

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INTs Collection disciplines (HUMINT, GEOINT, MASINT, OSINT, SIGINT) IR Infrared imagery IRA Irish Republican Army IRGC Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps IRTPA Intelligence Reform and Terrorism Prevention Act ISC Intelligence and Security Committee (Britain) ISID Inter-Services Intelligence Directorate (Pakistan) (usually called ISI) ISG Iraq Survey Group ISR Intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance IT Information technology JCS Joint Chiefs of Staff JIC Joint Intelligence Committee (Britain) JICC Joint Intelligence Community Council JIO Joint Intelligence Organisation (Britain) JIOC Joint Intelligence Operations Center JMIP Joint Military Intelligence Program JTAC Joint Terrorism Analysis Center (Britain) JTTF Joint Terrorism Task Force KGB Komitet Gosudarstvennoi Bezopasnosti (Committee of State Security) (Russia) KJs Key Judgments LEO Low earth orbit MAD Mutual assured destruction MASINT Measurement and signatures intelligence MEO Medium earth orbit MI5 Security Service (Britain) MI6 Secret Intelligence Service (Britain) MIP Military Intelligence Program MOIS Ministry of Intelligence and Security (Iran) MON Memo of notification Mossad Ha-Mossad Le-Modin Ule Tafkidim Meyuhadim (Institute for Intelligence and Special Tasks) (Israel) MSI Multispectral imagery NAB National Assessment Bureau (New Zealand) NATO North Atlantic Treaty Organization NCPC National Counterproliferation Center NCS National Clandestine Service NCSC National Counterintelligence and Security Center NCTC (1) National Counterterrorism Center; (2) National Counter-Terrorism Committee (Australia) NFIP National Foreign Intelligence Program NGA National Geospatial-Intelligence Agency

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NIA National Intelligence Agency (South Africa) NIC National Intelligence Council NIE National intelligence estimate NIM National intelligence manager NIMA National Imagery and Mapping Agency NIO National intelligence officer NIP National Intelligence Program NIPF National Intelligence Priorities Framework NOC Nonofficial cover NRO National Reconnaissance Office NRP National Reconnaissance Program NSA National Security Agency NSC National Security Council NSL National security letters NTM National technical means NTRO National Technical Research Organization (India) OCO Overseas contingency operations ODNI Office of the Director of National Intelligence OMB Office of Management and Budget ONA Office of National Assessments (Australia) ORCON Originator controlled OSD Office of the Secretary of Defense OSE Open Source Enterprise OSINT Open-source intelligence OSS Office of Strategic Services P&E Processing and exploitation PC Principals Committee (NSC) PCLOB Privacy and Civil Liberties Oversight Board PCO Privy Council Office (Canada) PDB President’s Daily Brief PFIAB President’s Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board PFLP Popular Front for the Liberation of Palestine PHIA Professional head of intelligence analysis (Britain) PHOTINT Photo intelligence PIAB President’s Intelligence Advisory Board PIOB President’s Intelligence Oversight Board PIPs Presidential Intelligence Priorities QFR Question for the record RAW Research and Analysis Wing (India) RMA Revolution in military affairs S&T Science and technology SAC (1) Special agent in charge (FBI); (2) Strategic Air Command (now called

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STRATCOM) SALT Strategic arms limitation talks SAM Surface-to-air missile SARS Severe acute respiratory syndrome SAS Special Air Service (Britain) SBS Special Boat Service (Britain) SBSS Space-based surveillance satellite SCIFs Sensitive compartmented information facilities SDI Strategic Defense Initiative SGAC Senate Governmental Affairs Committee Shin Bet Sherut ha-Bitachon ha-Klali (General Security Service) (Israel) SIGINT Signals intelligence SIS Secret Intelligence Service (Britain) SMO Support to military operations SNIE Special national intelligence estimate SOCOM Special Operations Command SPA Special political action SRA Systems and Research Analyses SSCI Senate Select Committee on Intelligence START Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty STRATCOM Strategic Forces Command SVR Sluzhba Vneshnei Razvedki (External Intelligence Service) (Russia) SWIFT Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunications TacSat Tactical satellite TECHINT Technical intelligence TELINT Telemetry intelligence TIARA Tactical Intelligence and Related Activities TOR Terms of reference TPEDs Tasking, processing, exploitation, and dissemination TUAVs Tactical unmanned aerial vehicles UAVs Unmanned aerial vehicles UCR Unanimous consent request UIS Unifying intelligence strategies UN United Nations UNSCOM United Nations Special Commission USDI Undersecretary of defense for intelligence VoIP Voice-over-Internet Protocol WIRe Worldwide Intelligence Review WMD Weapons of mass destruction

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Chapter One What Is “Intelligence”?

What is intelligence? Why is its definition an issue? Virtually every book written on the subject of intelligence begins with a discussion of what “intelligence” means, or at least how the author intends to use the term. This editorial fact reveals much about the field of intelligence. If this were a text on any other government function—defense, housing, transportation, diplomacy, agriculture—there would be little or no confusion about, or need to explain, what was being discussed.

Intelligence is different from other government functions for at least two reasons. First, much of what goes on is secret. Intelligence exists because governments seek to hide some information from other governments, who, in turn, seek to discover hidden information by means that they wish to keep secret. All of this secrecy leads some authors to believe that issues exist about which they cannot write or may not have sufficient knowledge. Thus, they feel the need to describe the limits of their work. Although numerous aspects of intelligence are—and deserve to be—kept secret, this is not an impediment to describing basic roles, processes, functions, and issues.