Kepner tregoe matrix

Outline

Two frameworks for decision making
K-T methodology
Decision making process by Lau (2011)
Useful tools to assist the analysis:
SWOTs analysis
The Benjamin Franklin method
Risk analysis framework
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Kepner-Tregoe Methodology

It is also referred to as the Kepner-Tregoe Matrix, KT Method, and PSDM (Problem Solving and Decision Making).

Developed by social scientists Charles Kepner and Benjamin Tregoe.
This model provides four distinct phases for resolving problems:
Situation Appraisal

Problem analysis

Solution analysis

Potential problem analysis

This rational process helps:
Focus on getting it right at the start

Provides a common language

Repeatable and auditable

Builds commitment

Time and performance based

Data driven

Allows effective communication

allows execution and follow-up

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The Kepner-Tregoe approach is based on the premise that the end goal of any decision is to make the "best possible" choice--not the "perfect" choice. In other words, the decision maker must accept some risk. This model thus helps evaluate and mitigate the risks of our decision. It is comprised of 4 rational process areas:

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(SOURCE: Kepner, C. H., and Tregoe, B. B., (1981) The New Rational Manager, John Martin Publishing Ltd, London pp 12 - 27)

1. Kepner-Tregoe Situation Analysis

Timing (urgency)

Trend (growth)

Impact (consequences)

To clarify and prioritize situation, Plan issue resolution

2. Kepner-Tregoe Problem Analysis

Identity

Location

Timing

Magnitude

What

Is?

What

Is Not?

Distinction

Cause of

Distinction

Kepner-Tregoe Problem Analysis

What is?

What is not?

Distinction?

Possible

Cause?

K-T Decision Analysis

(Quantitative)

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3. Kepner-Tregoe Decision Analysis

Thinking patterns for making choices:

We appreciate the fact that a choice must be made
We consider the specific factors that must be satisfied if the choice is to succeed
We decide what kind of action will best satisfy these factors
We consider the risks may be attached to our final choice of action that could jeopardize its safety and success
Process:

The decision statement
The objectives/criteria for the decision
Classify objectives into MUSTs and WANTs
Alternatives
The consequences of the choice
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4. Kepner-Tregoe Potential Problem Analysis

Four basic activities:
1. Identification of vulnerable areas – of an undertaking, project, operation, event, plan etc;
2. Identification of specific potential problems – within the above vulnerable areas that could have sufficient negative consequences on the operation to merit taking action now;
3. Identification of likely causes – of these potential problems and identification of actions to prevent them from occurring;
4. Identification of contingent actions – that can be taken if preventive actions fail, or where no preventive action is possible
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Every action above will have a cost, in that it calls for an allocation of resources against some problematic future return.
Need to ask the following questions:
What could go wrong?

What can we do now to prevent it?

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4. Kepner-Tregoe Potential Problem Analysis

Exercise

Your CQUniversity Moodle access was suspended, and you have two assignments due in 5 hours. How can you solve this problem using K-T methodology?

Work with your classmates, conduct role play if necessary (e.g., conversation between you and the TaSac staff, etc)

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A good decision process—Lau (2011)

1. Think generally about how the decision should be made.

2. Do some research.

3. Come up with a list of options.

4. Evaluate their pros and cons and pick the best option.

5. Prepare for contingencies.

6. Monitor progress and learn from the results.

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Source: Lau, Joe YF. An introduction to critical thinking and creativity: Think more, think better. John Wiley & Sons, 2011.

Step 1. Think generally about how the decision should be made.
"A problem well stated is a problem half solved”
---the American philosopher and educator John Dewey

Here are some relevant questions to ask:
Can I delegate?
How much time should I spend thinking about this?
What is the central issue? Which is the most important decision?
Is there anything that might have a negative effect on my decision?
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Step 2: Do some research

For decision of a strategic nature, i.e., future directions of a person or organisation, good idea to use a SWOT analysis to assist decision.