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1. National scan, Inc., sells radio frequency inventory tags. Monthly sales for a seven-month period were as follows:
Month
Sales
(units)
Feb
19
Mar
18
Apr
17
May
20
Jun
19
Jul
22
Aug
20
Forecast September sales volume using the naïve approach.
Forecast September sales volume using a linear equation. a=17.43, b = 0.46.
Forecast September sales volume using a five-month moving average
Forecast September sales volume using a weighted average using .60 for August, .30 for July, and .10 for June.
Forecast September sales volume using Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to .20, assuming a March forecast of 19.
2, A dry cleaner uses exponential smoothing to forecast equipment usage at its main plant. August usage was forecast to be 88 percent of capacity; actual usage was 89.6 percent of capacity. A smoothing constant (Alpha) of .2 is used.
a.Prepare a forecast for September.
b. Assuming actual September usage of 92 percent, prepare a forecast for October usage.
3. A cosmetics manufacturer’s marketing department has developed a linear trend equation that can be used to predict annual sales of its popular Hand & Foot Cream.
Ft =80+14t
Where
Ft Annual forecast in sales (bottles)
t= 0 corresponds to 1990
a. Predict annual sales for the year 2006 using the equation.
4.The manager of travel agency has been using a seasonally adjusted forecast to predict demand for packaged tours. The actual and predicted values are as follows:
Period
Demand
Predicted
1
129
124
2
194
200
3
156
150
4
91
94
5
85
80
6
132
140
7
126
128
8
126
124
9
95
100
10
149
150
a. Compute MAD for the 5th period
b. Compute MAPE for the 10th period
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