National scan inc sells radio frequency inventory tags monthly sales

National Scan, Inc., Sells Radio Frequency Inventory Tags. Monthly Sales For A Seven-Month Period Were As Follows

1. National scan, Inc., sells radio frequency inventory tags. Monthly sales for a seven-month period were as follows:

Month

Sales

(units)

Feb

19

Mar

18

Apr

17

May

20

Jun

19

Jul

22

Aug

20

Forecast September sales volume using the naïve approach.

Forecast September sales volume using a linear equation. a=17.43, b = 0.46.

Forecast September sales volume using a five-month moving average

Forecast September sales volume using a weighted average using .60 for August, .30 for July, and .10 for June.

Forecast September sales volume using Exponential smoothing with a smoothing constant equal to .20, assuming a March forecast of 19.

2, A dry cleaner uses exponential smoothing to forecast equipment usage at its main plant. August usage was forecast to be 88 percent of capacity; actual usage was 89.6 percent of capacity. A smoothing constant (Alpha) of .2 is used.

a.Prepare a forecast for September.

b. Assuming actual September usage of 92 percent, prepare a forecast for October usage.

3. A cosmetics manufacturer’s marketing department has developed a linear trend equation that can be used to predict annual sales of its popular Hand & Foot Cream.

Ft =80+14t

Where

Ft Annual forecast in sales (bottles)

t= 0 corresponds to 1990

a. Predict annual sales for the year 2006 using the equation.

4.The manager of travel agency has been using a seasonally adjusted forecast to predict demand for packaged tours. The actual and predicted values are as follows:

Period

Demand

Predicted

1

129

124

2

194

200

3

156

150

4

91

94

5

85

80

6

132

140

7

126

128

8

126

124

9

95

100

10

149

150

a. Compute MAD for the 5th period

b. Compute MAPE for the 10th period