Panera bread case analysis

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This spreadsheet supports STUDENT analysis of the case "Panera Bread Company" (UVA-F-1575).

This spreadsheet was prepared by Marc Lipson, Associate Professor of Business Administration. Copyright © 2009 by the University of Virginia Darden School Foundation, Charlottesville, VA. All rights reserved. For customer service inquiries, send an e-mail tosales@dardenbusinesspublishing.com. No part of this publication may be reproduced, stored in a retrieval system, posted to the Internet, or transmitted in any form or by any means—electronic, mechanical, photocopying, recording, or otherwise—without the permission of the Darden School Foundation.

Rev. Jun. 21, 2012

Exhibit 1 - Income Statement

Exhibit 1

PANERA BREAD COMPANY

Historic Income Statements

(n thousands of dollars)

2003 2004 2005 2006

Number of Bakery Cafés(a) 602 741 877 1,027

Revenue 363,702 479,139 640,275 828,971

Costs of Goods Sold

Bakery Café 210,822 288,706 399,760 542,916

Dough Sold to Franchisees 54,967 65,627 75,036 85,618

Depreciation 18,304 25,298 33,011 44,166

General and Administrative (b) 31,502 38,735 50,240 63,502

315,595 418,366 558,047 736,202

Operating Profit (EBIT) 48,107 60,773 82,228 92,769

Interest Expense 48 18 50 92

Pretax Profit 48,059 60,755 82,178 92,677

Tax 17,629 22,175 29,995 33,827

Net Income 30,430 38,580 52,183 58,850

(a) Including both company-owned and franchised bakery cafés

(b) Includes pre-opening expenses and other expenses

Data source: Panera Bread Company annual reports, 2003–06.

Exhibit 2 - Balance Sheet

Exhibit 2

PANERA BREAD COMPANY

Historic Balance Sheets

(in thousands of dollars)

Historic Balance Sheets:

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Cash and Short Term Investments 51,421 58,054 60,651 72,122 90152.5 90153 75728 75728 75728 75728

Accounts Receivable 12,394 17,256 25,158 30,919 38648.75 38649 32465 32465 32465 32465

Inventory 4,350 5,398 7,358 8,714 10892.5 10893 9150 9150 9150 9150

Prepaid Expenses and Deferred Taxes 3,887 3,905 9,607 15,863 19828.75 19829 16656 16656 16656 16656

Current Assets 72,052 84,613 102,774 127,618 159522.5 159522.5 133999 133999 133999 133999

Property, Plant and Equipment 146,362 201,725 268,809 345,977 432471.25

Goodwill and Other Assets 38,421 38,334 66,084 69,014

Total Assets 256,835 324,672 437,667 542,609

Accounts Payable 8,072 5,840 4,422 5,800

Acrued Expenses and Deferred Revenue 37,571 49,865 82,443 103,810

Current Liabilities 45,643 55,705 86,865 109,610

Deferred Rent and Other Liabilities 13,616 27,604 33,824 35,333

Total Liabilities 59,259 83,309 120,689 144,943

Equity 197,576 241,363 316,978 397,666

256,835 324,672 437,667 542,609

Data source: Panera Bread Company annual reports, 2003–06.

Exhibit 3 - 2007 Forecast

Exhibit 1

PANERA BREAD COMPANY

2007 Operating Forecast(a)

(in thousands of dollars)

Number of Bakery-Cafes(b) 1,230

Revenue 1,050,000

Costs of Goods Sold

Bakery Café 738,000

Dough Sold to Franchisees 86,000

Depreciation 60,000

General and Administrative (c) 78,000

962,000

Operating Profit (EBIT) 88,000

Interest Expense 150

Pretax Profit 87,850

Tax 31,500

Net Income 56,350

Current Assets 150,000

Property, Plant, and Equipment 430,000

Goodwill and Other Assets 110,000

Total Assets 690,000

Current Liabilities 130,000

Deferred Rent and Other Liabilities 45,000

Total Liabilities 175,000

(a) Case writer estimate based on history and third-quarter results.

(b) Including both company-owned and franchised bakery cafés

(c) Includes pre-opening expenses and other expenses

Exhibit 4 - Stock Price

Panera Stock Price and Volume

Panera Stock Price Volume

6/1/06 65.53 277.1

6/2/06 65.95 358.8

6/5/06 64.62 432.6

6/6/06 64.62 745.8

6/7/06 62.47 1373.1

6/8/06 62.62 794.2

6/9/06 63.04 549

6/12/06 63.18 714.9

6/13/06 62.14 584.1

6/14/06 61.7 427.5

6/15/06 63.83 428.8

6/16/06 63.99 264.9

6/19/06 63.41 555.2

6/20/06 63.42 192.4

6/21/06 64.29 369.2

6/22/06 66.57 1245.8

6/23/06 66.73 396.9

6/26/06 67.5 491.9

6/27/06 67.03 509.5

6/28/06 65.58 748.5

6/29/06 66.87 382.8

6/30/06 67.24 351.7

7/3/06 66.94 86.2

7/4/06 66.94 0

7/5/06 66.37 328.3

7/6/06 65.5 417.9

7/7/06 64.15 359.6

7/10/06 64.83 312.2

7/11/06 64.44 529.1

7/12/06 63.83 476.9

7/13/06 61.25 938.2

7/14/06 62.1 924.9

7/17/06 60.71 1229.8

7/18/06 59.41 861.3

7/19/06 60.01 729.7

7/20/06 58.25 1124.5

7/21/06 57.69 770.5

7/24/06 59.56 906

7/25/06 59.27 754.8

7/26/06 51.93 6267.6

7/27/06 51.53 1469

7/28/06 52.59 1053.8

7/31/06 52.31 660.6

8/1/06 51.45 630.9

8/2/06 51.54 684.5

8/3/06 51.56 673.5

8/4/06 51.5 659.8

8/7/06 50.61 465.2

8/8/06 50.1 467

8/9/06 46.85 1755.4

8/10/06 48.08 1258.8

8/11/06 47.95 426.1

8/14/06 48.26 413.2

8/15/06 49.81 962.2

8/16/06 51.96 890.7

8/17/06 53.46 916.1

8/18/06 52.4 641.8

8/21/06 51.39 572.7

8/22/06 51.62 532.9

8/23/06 51.15 531.5

8/24/06 50.12 856.1

8/25/06 49.16 578.7

8/28/06 50.29 701

8/29/06 51.9 862.2

8/30/06 53.6 901.5

8/31/06 51.9 1038.7

9/1/06 52.88 491.3

9/4/06 52.88 0

9/5/06 54.75 1403.2

9/6/06 52.03 1591.5

9/7/06 51.52 1200.3

9/8/06 52.72 573.6

9/11/06 53.35 748.2

9/12/06 57.67 2127.9

9/13/06 56.89 857.3

9/14/06 57.46 690.3

9/15/06 58.9 724

9/18/06 58.22 926.8

9/19/06 58.09 651.8

9/20/06 60.6 946

9/21/06 60.08 887

9/22/06 59.03 633.9

9/25/06 60.11 757.9

9/26/06 60.11 504

9/27/06 59.57 508.9

9/28/06 59.1 655.7

9/29/06 58.25 407.7

10/2/06 58.17 642.5

10/3/06 58.35 774.9

10/4/06 64.75 3400.1

10/5/06 65.68 1166

10/6/06 64.41 730.9

10/9/06 66.02 595.9

10/10/06 65.19 941.8

10/11/06 64.22 813.9

10/12/06 67.2 1398.8

10/13/06 66.8 849.3

10/16/06 67.03 769

10/17/06 66.47 571.3

10/18/06 66.9 651.1

10/19/06 65.58 725.5

10/20/06 64.79 620

10/23/06 66.01 801.8

10/24/06 68.7 1196

10/25/06 64.41 4101.2

10/26/06 64.33 874.8

10/27/06 62.03 1089.2

10/30/06 61.98 1411.6

10/31/06 61.8 923.5

11/1/06 61.27 1157.2

11/2/06 60.66 974.1

11/3/06 59.15 1138.8

11/6/06 60.83 813.7

11/7/06 60.64 435.4

11/8/06 61.47 584.9

11/9/06 59.99 529

11/10/06 60.47 499.4

11/13/06 59.52 758.6

11/14/06 60.58 581.3

11/15/06 61.97 649.2

11/16/06 61.82 508.5

11/17/06 61.58 576.1

11/20/06 61.26 453.1

11/21/06 60.25 1248

11/22/06 60.87 568.3

11/23/06 60.87 0

11/24/06 60.97 115.9

11/27/06 59 661.7

11/28/06 58.08 968.6

11/29/06 57.6 1158.9

11/30/06 57.45 685.2

12/1/06 56.9 1330.7

12/4/06 58.68 632.9

12/5/06 58.79 786

12/6/06 56.94 3162

12/7/06 56.7 1556.3

12/8/06 56.89 1074.5

12/11/06 56.74 689

12/12/06 55.63 870

12/13/06 55.7 777.1

12/14/06 55.68 487.4

12/15/06 55.97 682

12/18/06 55.9 518.6

12/19/06 55.52 505.9

12/20/06 56.08 452.9

12/21/06 55.77 602.9

12/22/06 55.82 272.7

12/25/06 55.82 0

12/26/06 55.47 370.7

12/27/06 56.1 365.2

12/28/06 56.47 682.4

12/29/06 55.91 429.4

1/1/07 55.91 0

1/2/07 55.91 0

1/3/07 56.01 842.6

1/4/07 56.75 847.9

1/5/07 55.95 658.2

1/8/07 56.15 554.8

1/9/07 57.27 818.5

1/10/07 56.79 585.9

1/11/07 58.4 732.9

1/12/07 57.92 567.5

1/15/07 57.92 0

1/16/07 58.54 394.6

1/17/07 57.63 637.1

1/18/07 56.38 604.4

1/19/07 55.67 613

1/22/07 55.2 622.9

1/23/07 54.87 376.8

1/24/07 55.11 446.8

1/25/07 54.5 620.6

1/26/07 53.85 935.5

1/29/07 53.15 1184.3

1/30/07 54.58 1146.6

1/31/07 58.96 2966.4

2/1/07 57.93 1180.9

2/2/07 58.34 443.3

2/5/07 57.93 359.5

2/6/07 58.55 340.6

2/7/07 58.57 839.6

2/8/07 58.12 752.1

2/9/07 57.4101 1294

2/12/07 57.2 1149.1

2/13/07 58.4 845.5

2/14/07 58.92 512.4

2/15/07 59.47 592.2

2/16/07 59.91 1113.5

2/19/07 59.91 0

2/20/07 61.11 1330.1

2/21/07 61.97 980.9

2/22/07 62.2 919.3

2/23/07 62.63 667.7

2/26/07 62.23 705.1

2/27/07 60 1076.3

2/28/07 61.23 1187.7

3/1/07 60.07 693.9

3/2/07 59.1 533.8

3/5/07 58.13 746.4

3/6/07 57.84 1021.5

3/7/07 58.48 1541.1

3/8/07 59.29 1123.8

3/9/07 59.95 728.5

3/12/07 60.57 444.8

3/13/07 59.46 493.1

3/14/07 59.84 1008.3

3/15/07 59.74 381.1

3/16/07 59.1 430.4

3/19/07 59.32 425.3

3/20/07 59.35 378.9

3/21/07 60.42 464.3

3/22/07 61.16 404.4

3/23/07 61.02 231.1

3/26/07 60.77 231.1

3/27/07 59.95 340.6

3/28/07 58.78 710.6

3/29/07 58.76 392.8

3/30/07 59.06 336.2

4/2/07 59.09 438.7

4/3/07 60.22 842.8

4/4/07 57.75 2747.4

4/5/07 57.34 985

4/6/07 57.34 0

4/9/07 56.39 927.3

4/10/07 56.38 920.8

4/11/07 55.73 894.7

4/12/07 55.64 826.1

4/13/07 56.03 724.8

4/16/07 56.23 835.3

4/17/07 55.79 594.9

4/18/07 56.05 469.8

4/19/07 55.83 299.7

4/20/07 56.14 614

4/23/07 56.25 590.9

4/24/07 55.7 933.9

4/25/07 59.13 2897.3

4/26/07 57.45 1478

4/27/07 56.8 820.8

4/30/07 55.69 510.7

5/1/07 56.1 787.1

5/2/07 56.94 903.4

5/3/07 56.24 448.8

5/4/07 56.24 389.1

5/7/07 55.95 554.8

5/8/07 56.24 429.9

5/9/07 56.3 379.6

5/10/07 55.52 338.9

5/11/07 56.05 292.6

5/14/07 55.65 466.7

5/15/07 54.94 648.5

5/16/07 55.43 484

5/17/07 54.99 348.8

5/18/07 55.15 842.2

5/21/07 55.59 505.8

5/22/07 56.62 522.5

5/23/07 56.92 590.4

5/24/07 56.97 597.8

5/25/07 56.67 417.9

5/28/07 56.67 0

5/29/07 56 555.9

5/30/07 56.6 260.7

5/31/07 56.37 256.6

6/1/07 56.73 380

6/4/07 57.59 445.2

6/5/07 58.32 849.5

6/6/07 50.28 5000

6/7/07 48.78 2703.2

6/8/07 49.01 1847.2

6/11/07 47.85 1554.6

6/12/07 47.64 858.8

6/13/07 48.33 864.5

6/14/07 48.29 715.7

6/15/07 47.98 626.5

6/18/07 47.82 708

6/19/07 47.15 677.2

6/20/07 47.04 719.2

6/21/07 46.41 1347.1

6/22/07 46.69 1218.7

6/25/07 46.35 963.3

6/26/07 46.29 751.2

6/27/07 46.65 755.5

6/28/07 46.02 469.8

6/29/07 46.06 570.8

7/2/07 46.02 686.5

7/3/07 47.55 825.5

7/4/07 47.55 0

7/5/07 47.68 1537.5

7/6/07 47.9 632.7

7/9/07 47.23 828.6

7/10/07 47.48 663.7

7/11/07 46.7 689.7

7/12/07 46.87 648.6

7/13/07 46.49 553.2

7/16/07 47.26 819.1

7/17/07 46.83 451

7/18/07 46.37 396.1

7/19/07 46.45 395.7

7/20/07 46.1 542.2

7/23/07 46.9 769.4

7/24/07 45.9799 1043.5

7/25/07 41.81 2989.1

7/26/07 40.58 1740.8

7/27/07 39.79 1365.4

7/30/07 41.38 1548.2

7/31/07 40.64 605.6

8/1/07 39.8 1508.9

8/2/07 41 807.8

8/3/07 41.58 1170.3

8/6/07 43.04 1069.2

8/7/07 45.56 1362.2

8/8/07 47.19 2828

8/9/07 46.37 2177

8/10/07 43.31 1881.6

8/13/07 44.1 910.5

8/14/07 44.36 1162.6

8/15/07 43.54 844.6

8/16/07 43.91 1158.9

8/17/07 45.23 1219.8

8/20/07 45 764.9

8/21/07 44.65 363.8

8/22/07 45.04 473.6

8/23/07 44.39 567.7

8/24/07 44.59 518

8/27/07 43.69 420.3

8/28/07 42.8 639.9

8/29/07 43.21 400

8/30/07 42.96 591.5

8/31/07 43.74 447.8

9/3/07 43.74 0

9/4/07 43.59 677.5

9/5/07 43.24 627.6

9/6/07 44.46 650.5

9/7/07 44.13 607.4

9/10/07 43.1 548.6

9/11/07 43.4 302.6

9/12/07 43.08 373.9

9/13/07 43.93 334.8

9/14/07 44.53 262.7

9/17/07 43.87 308.8

9/18/07 44.39 639.4

9/19/07 44.48 733.3

9/20/07 43.26 437.1

9/21/07 43.28 339.4

9/24/07 43 410.9

9/25/07 40.59 1049.7

9/26/07 41.36 845.1

9/27/07 41.56 428

9/28/07 40.8 537.6

10/1/07 42.19 1079.8

10/2/07 43.12 786.2

10/3/07 46.57 2384

10/4/07 47.27 1306.2

10/5/07 48.11 657.1

10/8/07 47.62 410.4

10/9/07 48.19 378.5

10/10/07 48.95 1009.4

10/11/07 48.66 904.5

10/12/07 47.77 536.2

10/15/07 47.57 714.3

10/16/07 48.12 483.7

10/17/07 48.57 620.7

10/18/07 47.82 710.9

10/19/07 46.85 947.1

10/22/07 47.2 770.6

10/23/07 48.81 910.7

10/24/07 43.61 2796.6

10/25/07 41.66 1437

10/26/07 41.05 955.7

10/29/07 41.01 951.2

10/30/07 40.73 1011.1

10/31/07 40.99 809.6

11/1/07 39.28 840.5

11/2/07 38.21 1001.6

11/5/07 37.89 752.5

11/6/07 37.25 939.9

11/7/07 37.19 675.2

11/8/07 37.4799 637

11/9/07 36.62 527

11/12/07 36.96 599.4

11/13/07 37.85 486.1

11/14/07 37.14 532.6

11/15/07 37.11 388.3

11/16/07 37.01 617.6

11/19/07 35.91 494

11/20/07 34.64 681.3

11/21/07 34.27 857.5

11/22/07 34.27 0

11/23/07 35.09 505.7

11/26/07 35.29 795.8

11/27/07 35.51 664.2

11/28/07 38.01 1259.9

11/29/07 39.47 784.8

11/30/07 40.07 1270.7

Panera Stock Price 38869 38870 38873 38874 38875 38876 38877 38880 38881 38882 38883 38884 38887 38888 38889 38890 38891 38894 38895 38896 38897 38898 38901 38902 38903 38904 38905 38908 38909 38910 38911 38912 38915 38916 38917 38918 38919 38922 38923 38924 38925 38926 38929 38930 38931 38932 38933 38936 38937 38938 38939 38940 38943 38944 38945 38946 38947 38950 38951 38952 38953 38954 38957 38958 38959 38960 38961 38964 38965 38966 38967 38968 38971 38972 38973 38974 38975 38978 38979 38980 38981 38982 38985 38986 38987 38988 38989 38992 38993 38994 38995 38996 38999 39000 39001 39002 39003 39006 39007 39008 39009 39010 39013 39014 39015 39016 39017 39020 39021 39022 39023 39024 39027 39028 39029 39030 39031 39034 39035 39036 39037 39038 39041 39042 39043 39044 39045 39048 39049 39050 39051 39052 39055 39056 39057 39058 39059 39062 39063 39064 39065 39066 39069 39070 39071 39072 39073 39076 39077 39078 39079 39080 39083 39084 39085 39086 39087 39090 39091 39092 39093 39094 39097 39098 39099 39100 39101 39104 39105 39106 39107 39108 39111 39112 39113 39114 39115 39118 39119 39120 39121 39122 39125 39126 39127 39128 39129 39132 39133 39134 39135 39136 39139 39140 39141 39142 39143 39146 39147 39148 39149 39150 39153 39154 39155 39156 39157 39160 39161 39162 39163 39164 39167 39168 39169 39170 39171 39174 39175 39176 39177 39178 39181 39182 39183 39184 39185 39188 39189 39190 39191 39192 39195 39196 39197 39198 39199 39202 39203 39204 39205 39206 39209 39210 39211 39212 39213 39216 39217 39218 39219 39220 39223 39224 39225 39226 39227 39230 39231 39232 39233 39234 39237 39238 39239 39240 39241 39244 39245 39246 39247 39248 39251 39252 39253 39254 39255 39258 39259 39260 39261 39262 39265 39266 39267 39268 39269 39272 39273 39274 39275 39276 39279 39280 39281 39282 39283 39286 39287 39288 39289 39290 39293 39294 39295 39296 39297 39300 39301 39302 39303 39304 39307 39308 39309 39310 39311 39314 39315 39316 39317 39318 39321 39322 39323 39324 39325 39328 39329 39330 39331 39332 39335 39336 39337 39338 39339 39342 39343 39344 39345 39346 39349 39350 39351 39352 39353 39356 39357 39358 39359 39360 39363 39364 39365 39366 39367 39370 39371 39372 39373 39374 39377 39378 39379 39380 39381 39384 39385 39386 39387 39388 39391 39392 39393 39394 39395 39398 39399 39400 39401 39402 39405 39406 39407 39408 39409 39412 39413 39414 39415 39416 65.53 65.95 64.62 64.62 62.47 62.62 63.04 63.18 62.14 61.7 63.83 63.99 63.41 63.42 64.290000000000006 66.569999999999993 66.73 67.5 67.03 65.58 66.87 67.239999999999995 66.94 66.94 66.37 65.5 64.150000000000006 64.83 64.44 63.83 61.25 62.1 60.71 59.41 60.01 58.25 57.69 59.56 59.27 51.93 51.53 52.59 52.31 51.45 51.54 51.56 51.5 50.61 50.1 46.85 48.08 47.95 48.26 49.81 51.96 53.46 52.4 51.39 51.62 51.15 50.12 49.16 50.29 51.9 53.6 51.9 52.88 52.88 54.75 52.03 51.52 52.72 53.35 57.67 56.89 57.46 58.9 58.22 58.09 60.6 60.08 59.03 60.11 60.11 59.57 59.1 58.25 58.17 58.35 64.75 65.680000000000007 64.41 66.02 65.19 64.22 67.2 66.8 67.03 66.47 66.900000000000006 65.58 64.790000000000006 66.010000000000005 68.7 64.41 64.33 62.03 61.98 61.8 61.27 60.66 59.15 60.83 60.64 61.47 59.99 60.47 59.52 60.58 61.97 61.82 61.58 61.26 60.25 60.87 60.87 60.97 59 58.08 57.6 57.45 56.9 58.68 58.79 56.94 56.7 56.89 56.74 55.63 55.7 55.68 55.97 55.9 55.52 56.08 55.77 55.82 55.82 55.47 56.1 56.47 55.91 55.91 55.91 56.01 56.75 55.95 56.15 57.27 56.79 58.4 57.92 57.92 58.54 57.63 56.38 55.67 55.2 54.87 55.11 54.5 53.85 53.15 54.58 58.96 57.93 58.34 57.93 58.55 58.57 58.12 57.4101 57.2 58.4 58.92 59.47 59.91 59.91 61.11 61.97 62.2 62.63 62.23 60 61.23 60.07 59.1 58.13 57.84 58.48 59.29 59.95 60.57 59.46 59.84 59.74 59.1 59.32 59.35 60.42 61.16 61.02 60.77 59.95 58.78 58.76 59.06 59.09 60.22 57.75 57.34 57.34 56.39 56.38 55.73 55.64 56.03 56.23 55.79 56.05 55.83 56.14 56.25 55.7 59.13 57.45 56.8 55.69 56.1 56.94 56.24 56.24 55.95 56.24 56.3 55.52 56.05 55.65 54.94 55.43 54.99 55.15 55.59 56.62 56.92 56.97 56.67 56.67 56 56.6 56.37 56.73 57.59 58.32 50.28 48.78 49.01 47.85 47.64 48.33 48.29 47.98 47.82 47.15 47.04 46.41 46.69 46.35 46.29 46.65 46.02 46.06 46.02 47.55 47.55 47.68 47.9 47.23 47.48 46.7 46.87 46.49 47.26 46.83 46.37 46.45 46.1 46.9 45.979900000000001 41.81 40.58 39.79 41.38 40.64 39.799999999999997 41 41.58 43.04 45.56 47.19 46.37 43.31 44.1 44.36 43.54 43.91 45.23 45 44.65 45.04 44.39 44.59 43.69 42.8 43.21 42.96 43.74 43.74 43.59 43.24 44.46 44.13 43.1 43.4 43.08 43.93 44.53 43.87 44.39 44.48 43.26 43.28 43 40.590000000000003 41.36 41.56 40.799999999999997 42.19 43.12 46.57 47.27 48.11 47.62 48.19 48.95 48.66 47.77 47.57 48.12 48.57 47.82 46.85 47.2 48.81 43.61 41.66 41.05 41.01 40.729999999999997 40.99 39.28 38.21 37.89 37.25 37.19 37.479900000000001 36.619999999999997 36.96 37.85 37.14 37.11 37.01 35.909999999999997 34.64 34.270000000000003 34.270000000000003 35.090000000000003 35.29 35.51 38.01 39.47 40.07

Exhibit 5 - Comparables

Exhibit 4

PANERA BREAD COMPANY

Data on Comparable Firm Capital Structure

(numbers in thousands except for prices)

Estimates for Year-End 2007 11/30/2007

Revenue EBIT LT Debt Price Shares

Quick Service Restaurants

McDonald's Corp 22,786,600 3,879,000 8,174,500 56.32 1,165,300

Wendy's Group Inc. 1,263,717 19,900 739,333 8.10 28,884

Burger King Holdings Inc. 2,234,000 290,000 943,000 25.90 135,000

Domino's Pizza, Inc. 1,462,870 193,910 1,720,083 13.86 59,665

Jack in the box Inc. 2,513,431 216,996 433,303 29.95 59,736

Casual Dining

Darden Restaurants Inc. 5,567,100 574,400 491,600 38.25 141,400

Ruby Tuesday Inc. 1,410,227 154,855 514,338 13.11 53,240

PF Chang's China Bistro Inc. 1,084,193 53,312 191,195 25.59 24,152

The Cheesecake Factory Inc. 1,511,577 110,803 175,000 23.29 69,152

California Pizza Kitchen Inc. 632,884 21,517 0 15.91 28,358

Fast Casual

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. 1,085,782 113,706 0 133.15 32,805

Starbucks Corp. 9,411,497 1,053,945 550,000 23.39 727,600

Buffalo Wild Wings Inc. 329,652 28,518 12,585 28.91 17,657

Data sources: Investex, Onesource, Yahoo! Finance, and individual firm 10-K filings.

Worksheet

Multiperiod Forecast

Historic Forecast

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Revenue 363,702 479,139 640,275 828,971 1,050,000 1,312,500 1,312,500 1,102,500 1,102,500 1,102,500

Costs of Goods Sold

Bakery Café 210,822 288,706 399,760 542,916 738,000 922,500 922,500 774,900 968,625 968,625

Dough Sold to Franchisees 54,967 65,627 75,036 85,618 86,000 107,500 107,500 90,300 112,875 112,875

Depreciation 18,304 25,298 33,011 44,166 60,000 75,000 75,000 63,000 78,750 78,750

General and Administrative 31,502 38,735 50,240 63,502 78,000 97,500 97,500 81,900 102,375 102,375

315,595 418,366 558,047 736,202 962,000 1,202,500 1,202,500 1,010,100 1,262,625 1,262,625

Operating Profit 48,107 60,773 82,228 92,769 88,000 110,000 110,000 92,400 -160,125 -160,125

Interest Expense 48 18 50 92 150

Pretax Profit 48,059 60,755 82,178 92,677 87,850

Tax 17,629 22,175 29,995 33,827 31,500

Net Income 30,430 38,580 52,183 58,850 56,350

Current Assets 72,052 84,613 102,774 127,618 150,000

Property, Plant, and Equipment 146,362 201,725 268,809 345,977 430,000

Goodwill and Other Assets 38,421 38,334 66,084 69,014 110,000

Total Assets 256,835 324,672 437,667 542,609 690,000

Current Liabilities 45,643 55,705 86,865 109,610 130,000

Deferred Rent and Other Liabilities 13,616 27,604 33,824 35,333 45,000

Total Liabilities 59,259 83,309 120,689 144,943 175,000

Debt

Equity 197,576 241,363 316,978 397,666

Total Liabilities and Equity 256,835 324,672 437,667 542,609

Historic Percentage of Sales 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Average

Bakery Café 57.97% 60.26% 62.44% 65.49% 70.29% 63.29%

Dough Sold to Franchisees 15.11% 13.70% 11.72% 10.33% 8.19% 11.81%

Depreciation 5.03% 5.28% 5.16% 5.33% 5.71% 5.30%

General and Administrative (b) 8.66% 8.08% 7.85% 7.66% 7.43% 7.94%

87% 87% 87% 89% 92% 88%

Current Assets 19.81% 17.66% 16.05% 15.39% 14.29% 16.64%

Property, Plant, and Equipment 40.24% 42.10% 41.98% 41.74% 40.95% 41.40%

Goodwill and Other 10.56% 8.00% 10.32% 8.33% 10.48% 9.54%

Current Liabilities 12.55% 11.63% 13.57% 13.22% 12.38% 12.67%

Deferred Rent and Other 3.74% 5.76% 5.28% 4.26% 4.29% 4.67%

Tax Rate 36.68% 36.50% 36.50% 36.50% 35.86% 36.41%

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