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Papa model risk management

05/01/2021 Client: saad24vbs Deadline: 12 Hours

Chapter 6


Strategic Risk Management at the LEGO Group Enterprise Risk Management page1image1113090016 page1image1113090400


Introduction


• LEGO Group history • Strategy • Legacy risk management


• Enterprise risk management at LEGO • Initial ERM


• Monte Carlo simulation • Active Risk Assessment of Business Projects (AROP) • Preparing for Uncertainty


• The PAPA model • Risk management ROI


LEGO Group History


• Headquarters in Billund, Denmark • Family owned • Second largest toy manufacturer (globally)


• Founded in 1932 • Iconic bricks first introduced • Bricks manufactured since 1958 fit with one another


• 2400 different brick shapes • Manufactured in plants across four countries



LEGO Strategy


• LEGO mission


• “Inspire and develop the builders of tomorrow” • LEGO vision


• “Inventing the future of play” • Growth strategy • Innovation strategy


ERM at LEGO


• Risk management developed in 4 stages • Step1:Enterpriseriskmanagement


· Step2: MonteCarlosimulations


· Step 3: Active Risk & Opportunity Planning (AROP)


· Step 4: Preparing for Uncertainty


• Order is by initiation sequence


· Steps 1 & 2 are damage control


· Steps 3 & 4 are proactive


page5image1114201664


ERM Step 1: Enterprise Risk Mgmt


page6image1141173680


ERM Step 2: Monte Carlo Simulations


• Monte Carlo simulation


· Method of evaluating the effect of input variances on a model of a complex system


· In short, it helps to see how input variances affect outcomes


• Helps to define risk tolerance


• Implemented in three areas • Budget simulation


• Credit risk portfolio • Consolidation of risk exposure


ERM Step 3: AROP


• Active Risk Assessment of Business Projects (AROP)


• Formal approach to defining and handling project risk


• Includes multiple steps • Identification


• Assessment • Handling • Reassessment


• Follow-up • Reporting


ERM Step 4: Preparing for Uncertainty


• Preparing for Uncertainty


• Defining and Testing Strategies


• Workshops precede strategic planning sessions


• Four scenarios • Agree on two key drivers of uncertainty


• Describe each of four quadrants of 2x2 matrix


• Define strategic issues


• Actions to take • “who is doing what by when?”


The PAPA Model


• Park, Adapt, Prepare, Act: PAPA • Park


• Adapt • Prepare • Act


page10image1115090992


Risk Management ROI


• Strong support from upper management


• Efforts have resulted in value


• Many LEGO key planning processes now include risk management


• More visibility of enterprise risk • More opportunity to address risk


Summary


• Risk management is not risk aversion


• ERM allows LEGO to take risks when appropriate


• Grow


• Create value • LEGO strategic risk management mission


• “Drive conscious choices”

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