Persuasive speech problem cause solution

9/4/2015 Assignment Print View

http://ezto.mheducation.com/hm.tpx?todo=printview 5/8

3. Award: 25 out of 25.00 points

Problem 3-4

An electrical contractor's records during the last five weeks indicate the number of job requests: Week: 1 2 3 4 5 Requests: 20 22 18 21 22 Predict the number of requests for week 6 using each of these methods: a. Naive.

Number of requests 22 b. A four­period moving average. (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.)

Number of requests 20.75

c. Exponential smoothing with α = .30. Use 20 for week 2 forecast. (Round your intermediate

calculations and final answers to 2 decimal places.)

Number of Requests F3 20.6 F4 19.82 F5 20.17 F6 20.72

References

Worksheet Learning Objective: 03­07 Use a naive method to make a forecast.

Learning Objective: 03­10 Prepare an exponential smoothing forecast.

Problem 3­4 Learning Objective: 03­08 Prepare a moving average forecast.

Problem 3-4

9/4/2015 Assignment Print View

http://ezto.mheducation.com/hm.tpx?todo=printview 6/8

4. Award: 25 out of 25.00 points

An electrical contractor's records during the last five weeks indicate the number of job requests: Week: 1 2 3 4 5 Requests: 20 22 18 21 22 Predict the number of requests for week 6 using each of these methods: a. Naive.

Number of requests 22 b. A four­period moving average. (Round your answer to 2 decimal places.)

Number of requests 20.75 ± 0.01

c. Exponential smoothing with α = .30. Use 20 for week 2 forecast. (Round your intermediate

calculations and final answers to 2 decimal places.)

Number of Requests F3 20.6 ± 0.05 F4 19.82 ± 0.05 F5 20.17 ± 0.05 F6 20.72 ± 0.05

Explanation:

b. 22 + 18 + 21 + 22 = 20.754

c. F3 = 20 + .30(22 − 20) = 20.6 F4 = 20.6 + .30(18 − 20.6) = 19.82 F5 = 19.82 + .30(21 − 19.82) = 20.17 F6 = 20.17 + .30(22 − 20.17) = 20.72

Problem 3-32

A manager has just received an evaluation from an analyst on two potential forecasting alternatives. The analyst is indifferent between the two alternatives, saying that they should be equally effective. Period: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Data: 37 39 37 39 45 49 47 49 51 54 Alt. 1: 36 38 40 42 46 46 46 48 52 55 Alt. 2: 36 37 38 38 41 52 47 48 52 53

9/4/2015 Assignment Print View

http://ezto.mheducation.com/hm.tpx?todo=printview 7/8

What would cause the analyst to reach this conclusion? (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) MAD1 1.60 MAD2 1.50 MSE1 3.78 MSE2 3.89 rev: 11_18_2014_QC_59428

References

Worksheet Learning Objective: 03­15 Construct control charts and use them to monitor forecast errors.

Problem 3­32 Learning Objective: 03­16 Describe the key factors and trade­offs to consider when choosing a forecasting technique.

Problem 3-32

A manager has just received an evaluation from an analyst on two potential forecasting alternatives. The analyst is indifferent between the two alternatives, saying that they should be equally effective. Period: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Data: 37 39 37 39 45 49 47 49 51 54 Alt. 1: 36 38 40 42 46 46 46 48 52 55 Alt. 2: 36 37 38 38 41 52 47 48 52 53 What would cause the analyst to reach this conclusion? (Round your answers to 2 decimal places.) MAD1 1.60 ± 0.05 MAD2 1.50 ± 0.05 MSE1 3.78 ± 0.05 MSE2 3.89 ± 0.05 rev: 11_18_2014_QC_59428

Explanation:

9/4/2015 Assignment Print View

http://ezto.mheducation.com/hm.tpx?todo=printview 8/8

Period Actual Forecast 1 Forecast 2 error 1 error 2 e12 e22 |e1| |e2| 1 37 36 36 +1 +1 1 1 1 1 2 39 38 37 +1 +2 1 4 1 2 3 37 40 38 –3 –1 9 1 3 1 4 39 42 38 –3 +1 9 1 3 1 5 45 46 41 –1 +4 1 16 1 4 6 49 46 52 +3 –3 9 9 3 3 7 47 46 47 1 0 1 0 1 0 8 49 48 48 1 +1 1 1 1 1 9 51 52 52 –1 –1 1 1 1 1 10 54 55 53 –1 +1 1 1 1 1

Total –2 +5 34 35 16 15

MSE1 =

34 = 3.789 MSE2 =

35 = 3.899 MAD1 =

16 = 1.610 MAD2 =

15 = 1.510 Both forecasting methods have MADs that are approximately equal (MAD1 = 1.6, MAD2 = 1.5), and MSEs that are also approximately equal (MSE1 = 3.78, MSE2 = 3.89).

Applied Sciences
Architecture and Design
Biology
Business & Finance
Chemistry
Computer Science
Geography
Geology
Education
Engineering
English
Environmental science
Spanish
Government
History
Human Resource Management
Information Systems
Law
Literature
Mathematics
Nursing
Physics
Political Science
Psychology
Reading
Science
Social Science
Home