Poli 30d

POLI 30D Spring 2018 Homework #4 (AKA ‘Final’ Exam) DUE June 13, 5 PM

In the first assignment, we asked you to use several SPSS commands to describe, compare, and begin to make inferences about two feeling thermometer variables in your ANES2016 data set. In the second, you used T‐TESTs to conduct inferential statistical hypothesis tests of differences on those variables. In the third, you continued your analysis with a CROSSTABS procedure. In this assignment, you will learn how to analyze your hypothesis using the full value of interval measures and their associated measures of association--REGRESSION. To make sure that you cover all that you will need to accomplish in this assignment, I suggest checking off each question or request as you complete it.

• ‘thoroughly discuss,’ ‘discuss in detail’ or ‘fully compare’ means exactly what each implies.

NOTE: The latest versions of SPSS are a bit more finicky about the sequence of the REGRESSION syntax command (different from p. 97 order). The sequence must be as follows. Of course, if you are using the pull-down graphic menu, this will not matter. This is for Task 4. REGRESSION VARIABLES=………../ SELECT=………/ DEPENDENT=……../ METHOD=ENTER.

NOTE: correction on bottom of SPSS Manual, p. 95. ‘44.911%’ should be ‘44.711%’

TASK 1: • Review the 3 Regression Videos—these are mainly a repeat of lectures

o Regression-1 http://www.screencast.com/t/pwZYlnbo6P o Regression-2 http://www.screencast.com/t/1jxTsyJUx9S o Regression-3 http://www.screencast.com/t/iKOrbVVU

• Open your ANES2016 revised data file • As before, WEIGHT by PW2016_FULL

http://www.screencast.com/t/pwZYlnbo6P
http://www.screencast.com/t/1jxTsyJUx9S
http://www.screencast.com/t/iKOrbVVU
TASK 2:

New Procedure – REGRESSION ‐‐ SPSS Manual section 4.6

• As in HW 1 and 2, use variables V16 and V17, not the recoded v16A and v17A you created in HW 3.

• Perform 2 two-variable linear regressions

o V16 as your DV, V18 (FT-Dem Party) as your IV  Interpret the intercept, slope and R-square values

o V17 as your DV, V19 (FT-Rep Party) as your IV

 Interpret the intercept, slope and R-square values

o Which is the better predictor—V18 (for Clinton) or V19 (for Trump)  Why? What values are you comparing?  Suggest why one is a better predictor than the other

TASK 3: Same Procedure, but multiple regression and use of a ‘dummy’ variable.

• Just as with an ordinal interpretation, a dichotomy can be used in an interval analysis (see explanation in Text, p. 181)

• Perform two 3-variable linear regressions

o V16 as your DV, V18 and your selected IV as your IVs

 Interpret the intercept, slopes and R-square values  How much does your chosen IV add to explaining the variance of V16 (above V18)?

o Which IV explains more of the variance of the DV?

 Why? What values are you comparing?

o V17 as your DV, V19 and your selected IV as your IVs  Interpret the intercept, slopes and R-square values

o Which IV explains more of the variance of the DV?

 Why? What values are you comparing?  How much does your chosen IV add to explaining the variance of V17 (above V19)?

TASK 4: Same Procedure, but 2‐variable regression and your IV investigated for specification effects. Just as with Simpson’s Paradox, relationships of subsets can be hidden. • Perform 2 two‐variable linear regressions with control

o V16 as your DV, V18 (FT-Dem Party) as your IV, but separately for each category of your IV (Manual, pp. 97-98—see change above)

 Interpret the intercept, slope and R-square values for each of your IV categories  Compare the two—for which of your IV categories is V18 a better predictor of

V16?

o V17 as your DV, V19 (FT-Rep Party) as your IV, but separately for each category of your IV (Manual, pp. 97-98—see change above)

 Interpret the intercept, slope and R-square values Interpret the intercept, slope and R-square values for each of your IV categories

 Compare the two—for which of your IV categories is V19 a better predictor of V17?

TASK 5:

• FULLY COMPARE these results with what you discovered in HW 1, 2 and 3. Write us a ‘tale of two candidates’. We expect at least two paragraphs here.

MAKE SURE TO:

• Transfer all relevant information from your SPSS output to a WORD document with your commentary and answers to questions.

• Make the document look as professional as possible. Presentation is part of the job description here.

POLI 30D Spring 2018
New Procedure – REGRESSION -- SPSS Manual section 4.6
TASK 3:
Same Procedure, but multiple regression and use of a ‘dummy’ variable.
 Just as with an ordinal interpretation, a dichotomy can be used in an interval analysis (see explanation in Text, p. 181)
 Perform two 3-variable linear regressions
o V16 as your DV, V18 and your selected IV as your IVs
o Which IV explains more of the variance of the DV?
o V17 as your DV, V19 and your selected IV as your IVs
o Which IV explains more of the variance of the DV?
TASK 4:
Same Procedure, but 2-variable regression and your IV investigated for specification effects. Just as with Simpson’s Paradox, relationships of subsets can be hidden.
• Perform 2 two-variable linear regressions with control
o V16 as your DV, V18 (FT-Dem Party) as your IV,
but separately for each category of your IV (Manual, pp. 97-98—see change above)
o V17 as your DV, V19 (FT-Rep Party) as your IV,
but separately for each category of your IV (Manual, pp. 97-98—see change above)