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Prior to beginning work on this assignment, read Chapters 5-7 in your text. Evaluate your portfolio’s performance over the past year using probability tools and techniques.
Using the Student Worksheet download, Week 2 tab, respond to the following questions:
For the entire portfolio and each component in the portfolio, determine the empirical probability that the month-to-month change in value rose during the 12-month period. Additionally, determine the conditional probability of each component increasing in value in the same month that the overall portfolio value increases. Interpret this outcome.
For the total portfolio performance, determine the binominal probability that we would expect to see exactly this number of monthly increases. Conclude the binominal probability that you would get this value or less. Conclude the binominal probability that you would get more than this number. Interpret the results. (Use the empirical probability for the total portfolio performance found in Q1 as a binominal probability.)
Assume that the probability of an increase in total value in the month over month comparison was normally distributed. Using the empirical probability you found in Q1 (and using the continuity correction factor), determine:
The mean and standard deviation of a normal curve distribution.
The normal curve based probability of getting the exact number of monthly increases that you observed.
The probability of getting that number and fewer.
The probability of getting more than that number.
Compare and contrast the two probability outcomes.
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