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assessments like these are useful in drawing attention to the problem, but they are not useful in assessing the risk or threat in a particular location. To accomplish this, more precise information at the local level is required.

Most risk or threat assessments in organized crime have focused on groups. These assessments are often carried by law enforcement agencies to determine which groups are at highest risk or pose the greatest threat. The methods used to determine risk involve identifying the universe of known crime groups in the country and then ranking them by their attributes and potential seriousness. Sample attributes used in these assessments include violence, corruption, infiltration, sophistication, discipline, insulation, stability, and group cohesiveness (Royal Canadian Mounted Police, 2006; Serious Organized Crime Agency, 2007).

In a similar way, the Federal Bureau of Investigation’s Organized Crime Section at FBI Headquarters is divided into three units, which are focused on Italian American organized crime, Eurasian/Middle Eastern Organized Crime, and Asian and African criminal enterprises (Federal Bureau of Investigation, 2008). This illustrates a primary focus on crime groups as a focal point for attention to organized crime. Table 2 is excerpted from a Canadian threat assessment. It illustrates that threat assessment is carried out by law enforcement agencies to target individuals and groups determined to pose the highest risk. This selection of “groups” as the criterion to be predicted is based on the premise that law enforcement agencies place apprehension of criminals as the central part of their mission. Experience shows, however, that apprehension of organized crime figures usually does not eliminate the group—which recruits new members or promotes existing members after a successful prosecution (Organized Contraband Smuggling, 2000; President’s Commission on Organized Crime, 1987). The expectation that prosecution of individuals involved in organized crime groups will affect the operation of the group and also affect the illegal market for the illicit products in question is problematic. Successful prosecutions of organized crime figures affect groups for only a short period because the customer demand for the illegal products or services is not diminished by a prosecution, so existing or new groups continue to exploit these illicit markets.

High-Risk Activities Versus High-Risk Groups

A focus on organized crime activities rather than groups is useful for purposes of assessment and analysis to produce an objective basis for investigative priorities and targets. Three categories of organized crime can be identified: provision of illicit services, provision of illicit goods, and infiltration of legitimate business (Albanese, 2007). Provision of illicit services involves money, sex, and gambling outside legit- imate avenues (i.e., loan-sharking, prostitution and pornography, and illegal gambling). Provision of illicit goods includes drug trafficking or the buying, selling, or distribution

Albanese / Risk Assessment in Organized Crime 265

of stolen property. Infiltration of legitimate business involves coercive use of legal busi- nesses to exploit them for profit or use them for money laundering.

This three-part typology of organized crime can be subdivided further into specific offenses of concern to law enforcement agencies and the general public. Summarized in Table 3, it can be seen that the provision of illicit services entails the offenses of commercialized sex (prostitution or pornography), illegal gambling, human trafficking, and subcontracting to others (to provide services such as illicit dumping of waste, trafficking in human organs or protected animal species, or murder for hire). The provision of illicit goods includes the offenses of drug trafficking, property theft (e.g., automobiles, clothing, art), and counterfeiting (e.g., identity documents, software, DVDs, CDs, weapons). The infiltration of business involves extortion of business owners, racketeering (ongoing criminal enterprises which “front” for illegal activity), money laundering, and fraud (e.g., investment fraud, Internet phishing, and smuggling of goods).