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Forecasting Methods
Every day managers must make decisions on future demands for their product or service. Knowing the future demand for your product is important so that staffing levels can be adjusted or more equipment and raw material procured. However, future demand is unknown, so managers turn to forecasts to make good estimates of future demand for their product or service.
Now put yourself in the shoes of the plant manager. This chart provides historical data for the past demand for your product. Your task is to apply the naïve, moving average, exponential smoothing, and trend methods of forecasting and determine which method is the most accurate.
Week
Demand
Week 1
55
Week 2
75
Week 3
65
Week 4
70
Week 5
80
Week 6
85
Week 7
75
Week 8
80
Week 9
90
Week 10
75
Assignment
Use the Excel OM plugin and the data to run the forecast using naive, weighted moving average, exponential smoothing, and trend projection (without exponential smoothing) methods. Use this information.
· Weighted moving averages method - use two periods with 0.1 and 0.4 as the weights.
· Exponential smoothing method - use an alpha of 0.1.
After you run the data, determine which method provided the most accurate forecast and explain your reasoning.
Submit your spreadsheet and include your selected method and explanation on the spreadsheet.
Install Excel OM
After you have installed Excel on your computer, download and install Excel OM.
Use the following resources to download Excel OM:
· Download Excel OM for PCs, Version 5.3 (Pearson) (Links to an external site.)Links to an external site.
· Download Excel OM for Macs, Version 5.3 (Pearson) (Links to an external site.)Links to an external site.
Note for Windows Users: Windows Defender, Windows SmartScreen, and some virus protection programs on Windows computers may prevent Excel OM/QM from installing. For troubleshooting, refer to the Security Program Prevents Installation (Links to an external site.)Links to an external site.document created by the application developer, Dr. Howard Weiss.
Note for Mac Users: The download file for Macs is a ZIP file with the Excel OM/QM for Macs program. Unzip the file. To start Excel OM/QM, open the file named ExcelOMQMV5.xlam.
To use Excel OM, you must launch Excel using the Excel OM shortcut and enable macros.
Forecasting Methods
Every day managers must make decisions on future dema
nds for their
product or service. Knowing the future demand for your product is important
so that staffing levels can be adjusted or more equipment and raw material
procured. However, future demand is unknown, so managers turn to forecasts
to make good est
imates of future demand for their product or service.
Now put yourself in the shoes of the plant manager. This chart provides
historical data for the past demand for your product. Your task is to apply the
naïve, moving average, exponential smoothing, and trend methods of
forecasting and determine which metho
d is the most accurate.
Week
Demand
Week 1
55
Week 2
75
Week 3
65
Week 4
70
Week 5
80
Week 6
85
Week 7
75
Week 8
80
Week 9
90
Week 10
75
Assignment
Use the Excel OM plugin and the data to run the forecast using naive,
weighted moving average, exponential smoothing, and trend projection
(without exponential smoothing) methods. Use this information.
·
Weighted mov
ing averages method
-
use two periods with 0.1 and 0.4 as
the weights.
·
Exponential smoothing method
-
use an alpha of 0.1.
After you run the data, determine which method provided the most accurate
forecast and explain your reasoning.
Submit your spreadshe
et and include your selected method and explanation
on the spreadsheet.
Forecasting Methods
Every day managers must make decisions on future demands for their
product or service. Knowing the future demand for your product is important
so that staffing levels can be adjusted or more equipment and raw material
procured. However, future demand is unknown, so managers turn to forecasts
to make good estimates of future demand for their product or service.
Now put yourself in the shoes of the plant manager. This chart provides
historical data for the past demand for your product. Your task is to apply the
naïve, moving average, exponential smoothing, and trend methods of
forecasting and determine which method is the most accurate.
Week Demand
Week 1 55
Week 2 75
Week 3 65
Week 4 70
Week 5 80
Week 6 85
Week 7 75
Week 8 80
Week 9 90
Week 10 75
Assignment
Use the Excel OM plugin and the data to run the forecast using naive,
weighted moving average, exponential smoothing, and trend projection
(without exponential smoothing) methods. Use this information.
Weighted moving averages method - use two periods with 0.1 and 0.4 as
the weights.
Exponential smoothing method - use an alpha of 0.1.
After you run the data, determine which method provided the most accurate
forecast and explain your reasoning.
Submit your spreadsheet and include your selected method and explanation
on the spreadsheet.
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