Statistics: Probability Discussion

Probability Discussion

300 words. All posts and replies must contain at least (2) professional references, properly cited in the current APA format.

Topic

Probability is used constantly in our lives. We rarely actually use numbers in our daily calculations but probability still controls much of our daily interactions. Some examples:

1. My wife is always late. I would estimate that she is late perhaps 95% of the time. Based on this, I can plan events. One time I told her that the time we needed to arrive was one hour prior to the correct time. We arrived about 10 minutes early. This is a subjective probability where an estimate is based upon past experience. Although percents and probability are not exactly the same, we tend to use them in the same manner.

2. When I last went to Vegas, I played the poker machine. I am not much into gambling so I play the 25 cent play. I would have to determine the higher probability of winning given certain circumstances. For example, I might go for all hearts or three of a kind based upon this mental calculation (assuming four hearts of which one is the jack of hearts and the non-heart is a jack of diamonds). Based upon probability:

P(flush or all hearts) = 9/47 (the dealt card needs to be a heart, 47 cards remaining of which 9 are hearts) = 19.15%

P(three jacks) = 2/47 (the dealt card needs to be a jack, 47 cards remaining of which 2 are jacks) = 4.26%

This is assuming that you get a brand new deck each round of video poker. Most people choose to go for the three of a kind but the flush has a better chance.

Come up with at least two examples of probability in your life.