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The actual demand for the patients at omaha emergency

21/12/2020 Client: saad24vbs Deadline: 2 Day

TEXAS SOUTHERN UNIVERSITY – JESSE H. JONES SCHOOL OF BUSINESS

Management Science 302

Examination II

INSTRUCTIONS:

Show all of your work.

Do not answer any questions which are not asked.

Do not use Excel Add-Ins or statistical software packages to solve problems.

Do not submit someone else’s work.

Name​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​​_________________________________________________________


1. The monthly sales for Telco Batteries Inc., were as follows:


Month Sales


1 20


2 21


3 15


4 14


5 13


6 16


7 17


8 18


9 20


10 20


11 21


12 23


a) Compute a five and seven month moving average for months 8 thru 12.


b) Determine which of these forecasts are more accurate using the MSE.


2. The actual demand for the patients at Omaha Emergency Medical Clinic for the first six weeks of this year follows:


Week Actual # of Patients Forecast


1 65


2 62


3 70


4 68


5 63


6 58


a) Compute a simple exponential smoothing forecast for week 7 with α = .2 (Use 2 decimal places only). Assume the initial forecast is the same as actual demand.


3. The general manager of a building materials production plant feels that the demand for plasterboard shipments may be related to the number of construction permits issued in the county during the previous quarter. The manager has collected the data shown below for the past two years.


Quarter


Construction


Plasterboard Shipments




Permits (000’s)


(10,000’s)


1


15


6


2


9


4


3


40


16


4


20


6


1


25


13


2


25


9


3


15


10


4


35


16


a) Compute the regression equation.


b) Interpretation of a and b in the context of this problem.


4. The moving-average forecast and actual demand for a hospital drug are shown in the accompanying table. Compute a tracking signal at the end of month 32, and comment on the forecast accuracy.


Month


Actual


Forecast




Demand


 Demand


27


71


78


28


80


75


29


101


83


30


84


84


31


60


88


32


73


85


5


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