Loading...

Messages

Proposals

Stuck in your homework and missing deadline? Get urgent help in $10/Page with 24 hours deadline

Get Urgent Writing Help In Your Essays, Assignments, Homeworks, Dissertation, Thesis Or Coursework & Achieve A+ Grades.

Privacy Guaranteed - 100% Plagiarism Free Writing - Free Turnitin Report - Professional And Experienced Writers - 24/7 Online Support

Trend adjusted exponential smoothing formula

20/10/2021 Client: muhammad11 Deadline: 2 Day

Forcasting Recurrence

IST 230 Exercise on Forecasting Recurrences

Use Excel or OpenOffice to forecast the Airline Sales and US Interest Rate data in the data spreadsheet (data.xls or data.ods). You'll see that I started this for you for the airline data. There's also a tutorial in the exercise directory which you may find helpful.

Smooth the data using exponential smoothing. If you think the time series does not have a long-term trend up or down, use simple exponential smoothing. If you think the time series does have a long-term trend up or down, use trend-adjusted exponential smoothing for each of these time series. Note that this requires that you first do the simple exponential smoothing, and then compute the trend as the smoothed difference between successive forecasts. Finally, compute the trend-adjusted forecast as the sum of these two. Your objective should be to get a fairly smooth (hence the term “smoothing”) curve that follows the trend and runs as closely as possible through the middle of the data. This will usually give an RMS error as small as possible without following the cycles.

Add some type of cyclical adjustment. My usual approach is to compute a ratio the actual data and the exponentially smoothed forecast – a so-called “cyclical index” (or if it follows a calendar-year pattern, it's called a “seasonal index”.) You'll find additional info in the tutorial.

For both time series (airline-sales and interest-rates), forecast 12 periods ahead (h=12), starting from the beginning of your data, and extrapolate your forecast 12 periods past where you have actual data, based on your latest trend estimate and your cyclical index. Note you won't be able to assess the forecast for these, since you don't have actual data.

Use the exponential smoothing formulae given below.

Compute the mean-squared error by summing the squared differences between the forecast values and the actual values.

Your deliverable a one or two page executive summary of your results in a PDF document entitled exercise8-flastname.pdf, where flastname is your first initial and last name (e.g., for me, dmudgett). In your summary, present

- A brief one-sentence statement of your problem plus an explanation of how you
selected alpha, beta, and figured out the cyclical pattern. (1 paragraph)

- Graphs of your forecast and actual data for your final choices of alpha and beta
(should be just 2 graphs)

- A table of RMS forecast error for at least 3 choices of alpha and beta, for each time
series.

Here are the exponential smoothing formulae (carefully read the explanation of n-periods ahead forecasting).

Simple Exponential Smoothing:

The simple exponential smoothing forecast is given by:

F(t+1) = F(t) + alpha*(A(t) - F(t)) = (1-alpha)*F(t) + alpha*A(t) (1)

where

F(t+1) = the one-period-ahead forecast for period t+1

F(t) = the forecast for period t

A(t) = the actual value in period t

alpha is known as the smoothing constant, a constant in the range (0,1)

Trend-Adjusted Exponential Smoothing:

The trend-adjusted exponentially smoothed forecast is given by:

FT(t+1) = F(t+1) + T(t) (2)

where F(t+1) = the one-period-ahead exponentially smoothed forecast for period t+1

T(t) = the trend correction in period t, which is given by:

T(t) = beta*(F(t)-F(t-1)) + (1-beta)*T(t-1) (3)

and beta is the smoothing constant for the trend estimation, also a constant in the range (0,1).

NOTE: Equation (2) is *not* a recurrence. Compute the recurrences (1) and (3) first, then use equation (2).

You can think of beta exactly the same way as you think about alpha for simple exponential smoothing. In fact, it's probably a good idea to set beta = alpha, unless you have a reason to think it should be different.

Comment: alpha and beta are usually determined by experimentation, to see what works best on the time-series you're forecasting. To give you some idea what the affect is, think about it this way:

alpha/beta equivalent n-period moving average

0.1 about 12 periods

0.2 about 6 periods

0.3 about 4 periods

0.5 about 3 periods

0.7 about 2 periods

These are just rough equivalences, but give you an idea how fast the smoother reacts to a major change in the data pattern.

Final point: Extrapolating the smoothed forecast more than one time-period ahead.

For simple exponential smoothing, forecasting more than one period ahead is no big deal. Just use the h-period-ahead formula (h is called the forecasting horizon):

F(t+h) = F(t+1) = (1-alpha)*F(t) + alpha*A(t) (4)

You also compute the trend exactly as before - use equation (3) completely unmodified. But equation (2) may change, depending on how many periods you want to extrapolate the trend. For example, if you want to forecast h-periods ahead and also extrapolate the trend h periods ahead, then change equation (2) to

FT(t+h) = F(t+h) + h*T(t) (5)

As a practical matter, a forecaster may not want to extrapolate the trend all the way through the forecast horizon. Let's say, for example that you want to forecast 6 periods ahead, and aren't sure the trend will continue all 6 periods. Let's say a retailer wants to use a forecast to decide how much of a product they needed 6 months down the line. If they extrapolate the trend all 6 months and it doesn't happen, they'll wind up with too much stock. In this case it may make sense to be more conservative and extrapolate the trend *less then* the total number of periods in the forecast horizon.

Either way - once you decide how many periods you want to extrapolate the forecast - call that integer m - then the trend-adjusted forecast is given by this slightly modified equation 5:

FT(t+k) = F(t+k) + min(k,m)*T(t) (6)

Homework is Completed By:

Writer Writer Name Amount Client Comments & Rating
Instant Homework Helper

ONLINE

Instant Homework Helper

$36

She helped me in last minute in a very reasonable price. She is a lifesaver, I got A+ grade in my homework, I will surely hire her again for my next assignments, Thumbs Up!

Order & Get This Solution Within 3 Hours in $25/Page

Custom Original Solution And Get A+ Grades

  • 100% Plagiarism Free
  • Proper APA/MLA/Harvard Referencing
  • Delivery in 3 Hours After Placing Order
  • Free Turnitin Report
  • Unlimited Revisions
  • Privacy Guaranteed

Order & Get This Solution Within 6 Hours in $20/Page

Custom Original Solution And Get A+ Grades

  • 100% Plagiarism Free
  • Proper APA/MLA/Harvard Referencing
  • Delivery in 6 Hours After Placing Order
  • Free Turnitin Report
  • Unlimited Revisions
  • Privacy Guaranteed

Order & Get This Solution Within 12 Hours in $15/Page

Custom Original Solution And Get A+ Grades

  • 100% Plagiarism Free
  • Proper APA/MLA/Harvard Referencing
  • Delivery in 12 Hours After Placing Order
  • Free Turnitin Report
  • Unlimited Revisions
  • Privacy Guaranteed

6 writers have sent their proposals to do this homework:

Smart Accountants
Homework Guru
Smart Homework Helper
Homework Master
Financial Solutions Provider
Assignment Helper
Writer Writer Name Offer Chat
Smart Accountants

ONLINE

Smart Accountants

I am a PhD writer with 10 years of experience. I will be delivering high-quality, plagiarism-free work to you in the minimum amount of time. Waiting for your message.

$15 Chat With Writer
Homework Guru

ONLINE

Homework Guru

I can assist you in plagiarism free writing as I have already done several related projects of writing. I have a master qualification with 5 years’ experience in; Essay Writing, Case Study Writing, Report Writing.

$27 Chat With Writer
Smart Homework Helper

ONLINE

Smart Homework Helper

I have assisted scholars, business persons, startups, entrepreneurs, marketers, managers etc in their, pitches, presentations, market research, business plans etc.

$46 Chat With Writer
Homework Master

ONLINE

Homework Master

As per my knowledge I can assist you in writing a perfect Planning, Marketing Research, Business Pitches, Business Proposals, Business Feasibility Reports and Content within your given deadline and budget.

$16 Chat With Writer
Financial Solutions Provider

ONLINE

Financial Solutions Provider

I have read your project details and I can provide you QUALITY WORK within your given timeline and budget.

$43 Chat With Writer
Assignment Helper

ONLINE

Assignment Helper

I have read your project details and I can provide you QUALITY WORK within your given timeline and budget.

$31 Chat With Writer

Let our expert academic writers to help you in achieving a+ grades in your homework, assignment, quiz or exam.

Similar Homework Questions

How many miles are in 8800 yards - Chapter 18 building vocabulary cold war conflicts answers - The day the war began - Employee performance expectations are normally made known through - How to make a rectangle with tangrams - Integrative approaches to psychology and christianity entwistle - CJT101 ASSIGNMENT - Duvall 1977 family life cycle - Two ways a woman can get hurt advertising and violence - Ratan tata ethical leadership - Hrm 300 week 1 - The mechanical universe video 15 answers - What does aristotle with a bust of homer depict - 7000 steps in miles - Visual arts - Chailey communication aid service - Comptia security+ sy0-501 performance based questions - Relying entirely on a firm’s statement of cash flows while ignoring its income statement is - Yarra trams driver application form - King leopold's ghost discussion questions answers - Army surplus george st sydney - Chiang and wainwright mathematical economics - Co op pharmacy birchwood - Reply 1 TpN - NURS6050 - POL101-2 - Is loneliness a theme - St edmund hall address - Example of swot analysis for human resources department - John bloomfield lecture theatre - Human Resources Questions (2) - 1. what patterns do you observe based on the information in table 4? - Kde koupit ketamin online, koupit MXM prášek, koupit 1P-LSD prášek, koupit metadon, koupit MDPV koupit DMT prášek online. - Gainesboro machine tools corporation - Film study guide the wizard of oz answers - Personal branding assignment - Presentation - Ifsm 201 excel project 1 rental cars - Marketing strategy of toyota company pdf - Costs associated with backordering a product are called ____ costs. - Smith precept polarized photochromic sunglasses - Empirical formula of sodium carbonate - Groundwater and human development - Taxation - Research Proposal On The "Impact Of Organisational Culture On Personnel Performance In Nigeria Civil Service" - Gerd soap note - Objects that don't move - 2000 divided by 4 - Bac si dien sunshine - Tartaric acid titration curve with naoh - Effective Speaking - Mcmi iii hand scoring worksheet - Pardoner's tale cliff notes - Case synopsis----quick finish in 4 hours - Discussion/ art - IT Related Questions - Interpreting Paradigms of Qualitative Research - Friedel crafts acylation lab report - Statistics - Austin champ owners club - What is statutory reporting in australia - Juvenile Delinquency Milestones - Https www irs gov pub irs pdf f1040sa pdf - Essentials of statistics for the behavioral sciences - Prempak c prescription charge - Total electric flux through a sphere - Gcu library online - What are the basic objectives of psychological first aid - How to spell diamante - Assignment #33 - Data Science And Big Data - I need a discussion - Jerome kagan's classification of temperament focuses on - Econ - Enthalpy of combustion of alcohols - Nyu bus route f - MODULE 6 WEEK 11 Discussion: Developing a Culture of Evidence-Based Practice and Assignment: Evidence-Based Capstone Project, Part 6: Disseminating Results - English 2 straighterline papers - Ir led eye safety calculator - Middleton cheney community primary school - Plymouth city council staffroom - Difference between volume and capacity - A computer program is - 8 tyee street box hill - Braille books for beginners - Introduction starters for reports - Case - HD - Calorimetry specific heat capacity of metals lab report - Swift analysis aptitude (verbal and numerical test) - Explorations in conceptual chemistry activity 6a answers - Winnebagel corp currently sells motorhomes - 103.2 fever in 13 year old - Paediatric vital signs nsw health - College bursar job description - A monopolistically competitive firm has a - Champion n12yc spark plug cross reference - How to make 75 cents - Mcloughlins beach caravan park - Https owl english purdue edu owl resource 747 03 - City of everett washington v mitchell