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Operations Forecasting
Select a business operations dataset from the internet or other sources which can be used for forecasting in the University Library.
Develop a minimum of three quantitative forecasts using Microsoft® Excel®.
Compare and contrast each quantitative forecast you develop.
Choose the one forecast you determine would be the best for the firm and be prepared to explain why you chose this.
Evaluate the impact this forecast would have on the firm from a financial metrics standpoint.
Develop a 700-word report in which you describe your forecasting project including details on all the assignment steps.
Explanation:
a. to e.
Single Exponential Smoothing
Exponential Smoothing with Trend
Month (t)
Demand
Three-Month Moving Average
Absolute Deviation
Three-Month Weighted Moving Average
Absolute Deviation
Ft
Absolute Deviation
Ft
Tt
FITt
Absolute Deviation
1
61
66.000
65.000
1.700
66.700
2
64
64.500
64.990
1.358
66.348
3
67
64.350
65.644
1.217
66.861
4
66
64.000
2.000
64.6
1.400
65.145
0.855
66.903
1.225
68.128
2.128
5
71
65.667
5.333
66.0
5.000
65.402
5.598
67.490
1.098
68.587
2.413
6
70
68.000
2.000
68.2
1.800
67.081
2.919
69.311
1.243
70.554
0.554
7
73
69.000
4.000
69.6
3.400
67.957
5.043
70.388
1.209
71.597
1.403
8
74
71.333
2.667
71.4
2.600
69.470
4.530
72.018
1.294
73.311
0.689
9
74
72.333
1.667
72.8
1.200
70.829
3.171
73.518
1.335
74.853
0.853
10
83
73.667
9.333
73.8
9.200
71.780
11.220
74.597
1.284
75.881
7.119
11
84
77.000
7.000
77.6
6.400
75.146
8.854
78.016
1.711
79.727
4.273
12
86
80.333
5.667
81.6
4.400
77.802
8.198
81.009
1.967
82.976
3.024
MAD
4.407
3.933
5.599
2.495
Based upon MAD, the exponential smoothing with trend forecast component appears to be the best method.
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