Faculty of Law and Management
FUNDAMENTALS OF FINANCE
Lecture 5: Investment Evaluation Techniques
Presented by: Dr Balasingham Balachandran Professor of Finance Department of Finance, La Trobe Business School
Investment Evaluation Techniques
2 These slides have been drafted by the La Trobe University School of Economics & Finance based on Berk (2011).
Topic Overview
Introduction to capital budgeting and investment
evaluation
Net Present Value (NPV)
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
Payback Period (PP)
Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)
Choosing between projects when resources are
limited
These slides have been drafted by the Department of Finance, La Trobe Business School based on Berk (2014).
Investment Evaluation Techniques
Learning Objectives
Understand alternative decision rules and their
drawbacks
Choose between mutually exclusive investments
Rank projects when a company’s resources are
limited so that it cannot take all positive- NPV
projects
3
Investment Evaluation Techniques
4
The investment decision entails deciding which projects or investments
should be undertaken
Companies need to use investment evaluation techniques to determine
the value of the projects available to them
The final decision as to which projects a company should undertake is
known as ‘capital budgeting’
In this topic we will apply a number of techniques to the valuation of
individual projects
Investment evaluation and capital budgeting
Investment Evaluation Techniques
5
When a corporation allocates funds to long-term investment projects, the outlay is made in the expectation of generating future cash flows
In making the decision to invest in a project, the key consideration is whether or not the proposal provides an adequate return to investors
The process used to select projects to invest – capital budgeting – is essentially a process to decide on the optimum use of scarce resources
Investment evaluation and capital budgeting
Investment Evaluation Techniques
6
There are three fundamental stages in making capital budgeting
decisions: Stage 1 is the forecasting of costs and benefits associated with a project – the most
important being the financial ones
Stage 2 involves the application of an investment evaluation technique to decide
whether a project is acceptable, or optimal amongst alternative projects
Stage 3 is the ultimate decision to accept or reject a project
The capital budgeting process
Investment Evaluation Techniques
7
In this lecture we will discuss the four best-known
investment evaluation techniques
Two of these are based on the discounted cash flow
(DCF) model: Net present value (NPV)
Internal rate of return (IRR)
The other two are accounting-based techniques: Payback
(Average) accounting rate of return (ARR)
Investment evaluation techniques
Investment Evaluation Techniques
8
In evaluating projects, it is important to keep in mind the
type of projects being considered
Projects can be:
Independent
Mutually exclusive
Independent projects can be evaluated separately, and
as long as there are sufficient funds are available, a
company should invest in all acceptable independent
projects
Types of projects
Investment Evaluation Techniques
9
If two or more projects are mutually exclusive, a company can
only choose one of them – the one that is ranked highest by
the evaluation technique being used
Projects could be neither mutually exclusive nor independent,
in the sense that accepting one project affects the cash flows
of another
Project evaluation in this case is complex and largely beyond
the scope of this subject
Types of projects
Investment Evaluation Techniques
10
This technique involves calculating the present value of all future cash
inflows and cash outflows that will result from undertaking a project
These positive and negative present values are then netted off
against one another to determine the net present value of the project
The firm should accept all positive-NPV projects and reject negative-
NPV projects, because NPV measures the increase in value from the
project
Net Present Value (NPV)
Investment Evaluation Techniques
11
If the NPV of a project is zero, the firm would be indifferent between
undertaking the project or paying the available cash back to
shareholders
This is because zero NPV indicates that the project yields the same
future cash that the investors could obtain by investing themselves
A project is acceptable if the accumulated cash flow at the end of the
project exceeds the cash flow that investors could have generated
Net Present Value (NPV)
Investment Evaluation Techniques
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Most firms measure values in terms of net present value–that is, in
terms of cash today.
The NPV decision rule
NPV = PV (Benefits) – PV (Costs)
(Eq. 8.1)
Investment Evaluation Techniques
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where:
CFt = cash flow generated by the project in year t
r = the opportunity cost of capital
CF0 = the cost of the project (initial cash flow, if any)
n = the life of the project in years
The net present value of a project is calculated as
follows:
Net Present Value (NPV)
0
1
NPV 1
n t
t t
CF CF
r
Investment Evaluation Techniques
Using the NPV Rule
Consider an investment project that requires to built a new fertiliser
plant at a cost of $81.6 million.
Estimated return on the new fertiliser will be $28 million after the first
year, and lasting four years as shown by the timeline below:
14
Month: 0 1 2 3
4
Cash Flow: ($81.60) $28 $28 $28 $28
Cost of capital is10%
Investment Evaluation Techniques
Therefore, given a discount rate r, the NPV of this project is:
If we replace r with the estimated cost of capital of 10%, we get an NPV of
$7.2 million, which is positive.
In this case, the project’s benefits outweigh the costs by $7.2 million and will
increase the value of the firm.
15
Using the NPV Rule
NPV = -81.6 + 28
+ 28
+ 28
+ 28
1+r (1+r)2 (1+r)3 (1+r)4
Investment Evaluation Techniques
The NPV of the project depends on the appropriate cost of capital.
It is helpful to calculate an NPV profile, which graphs the project’s NPV over
a range of discount rates.
16
NPV Profile
Based on this data the NPV
is positive only when the
discount rates are less than 14%.
Investment Evaluation Techniques
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Net Present Value (NPV)
Example:
A company is considering whether to outlay $500,000 for a machine
that will generate $150,000 p.a. over the next 5 years. What is the
NPV of this project, given an opportunity cost of capital of 10%?
Investment Evaluation Techniques
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The strengths of the NPV technique are: It always ensures the selection of projects that maximise the wealth of
shareholders
It takes into account the time value of money
It considers all cash flows expected to be generated by a project
Two possible weaknesses are: It requires extensive forecasts of the costs and benefits of a project,
which can be problematic
The concept is difficult for non-finance-trained managers to understand
Net Present Value (NPV)
Investment Evaluation Techniques
Payback Period
• Payback period is the amount of time required for an investment to generate cash flows to recover its initial cost.
• Steps in estimating the payback period are: Estimate the cash flows.
Accumulate the future cash flows until they equal the initial investment.
Work out how long this takes to happen.
• An investment is acceptable if its calculated payback is less than some prescribed number of years.
Investment Evaluation Techniques
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The payback is given by:
The payback technique
year before full recovery
cost to be recovered at start of year
cash flow during year
Payback
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The payback technique
Example:
Calculate the payback period for the following project.
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Project A -1000 100 200 800 100 100 100
Investment Evaluation Techniques
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The payback technique
Example:
Calculate the payback period for the following project.
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Project A -1000 100 200 800 100 100 100
Cum NCF
Investment Evaluation Techniques
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The payback technique
Example:
Calculate the payback period for the following project.
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Project A -1000 100 200 800 100 100 100
Cum NCF -900
Investment Evaluation Techniques
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The payback technique
Example:
Calculate the payback period for the following project.
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Project A -1000 100 200 800 100 100 100
Cum NCF -900 -700
Investment Evaluation Techniques
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The payback technique
Example:
Calculate the payback period for the following project.
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Project A -1000 100 200 800 100 100 100
Cum NCF -900 -700 100
Investment Evaluation Techniques
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The payback technique
Example:
Calculate the payback period for the following project.
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 Payback
Project A -1000 100 200 800 100 100 100
Cum NCF -900 -700 100 200 300 400 2.88 yrs
At the end of the third year, the sign of the cumulative net cash flow
has changed from negative to positive. Therefore the payback
occurred during the third year. If we assume the year 3 cash flow
is earned evenly
during year 3, the
payback period is: years88.2
800
700 2
A Payb ack
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Example
Cash flows for projects A to F are given
below:
Year A B C D E F 0 -900 -900 -900 -900 -900 -900
1 300 300 100 600 600 300
2 300 300 200 200 200 300
3 300 300 600 100 100 300
4 - 300 - - 100
Calculate the payback period for these projects A-F.
Which one is the best investment?
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Example
Cash flows for projects I and D are given
below:
Year Project I Project D
0 (100) (100)
1 10 70
2 60 50
3 80 20
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Example continued
The significant cash flows occur in later years!
10 80 60
0 1 2 3
– 100
=
Cumulative – 100 – 90 – 30 50
PBPI 2 + 30/80 = 2.375
years
0
2.375
Project I
30
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Example Continued
The significant cash flows come early!
70 20 50
0 1 2 3
– 100
Cumulative – 100 – 30 20 40
PBPD 1 + 30/50 = 1.6 years
0
1.6
=
Project D
30
Investment Evaluation Techniques
Decision Criteria Test - Payback
• Does the payback rule account for the time value of money?
• Does the payback rule account for the risk of the cash flows?
• Does the payback rule provide an indication about the increase in value?
• Should we consider the payback rule for our primary decision rule?
Investment Evaluation Techniques
Evaluation of Payback Period
Advantages:
Easy to understand.
Adjusts for uncertainty of later cash flows.
Disadvantages:
Time value of money and risk ignored.
Ignores cash flows beyond the cut-off date.
Biased against long-term projects or Lacks a decision criterion grounded in
economics.
Arbitrary determination of acceptable payback period.
Investment Evaluation Techniques
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The discounted payback period is similar to the normal payback period, except that the cash flows are discounted to present value
The discounted payback period is the time taken to recover the outlay from discounted cash flows
This takes account of the time value of money (for cash flows within the payback period) but does not allow for risk, ignores cash flows after the pay- back period and is subject to an arbitrary cut-off
The discounted payback technique
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The discounted payback technique
Example:
Calculate the discounted payback period for the following project
(discounting cash flows at a required rate of return of 10%).
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Project A -1000 100 200 800 100 100 100
Disc CF
Cum NCF
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The discounted payback technique
Example:
Calculate the discounted payback period for the following project
(discounting cash flows at a required rate of return of 10%).
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Project A -1000 100 200 800 100 100 100
Disc CF -1000
Cum NCF
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The discounted payback technique
Example:
Calculate the discounted payback period for the following project
(discounting cash flows at a required rate of return of 10%).
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Project A -1000 100 200 800 100 100 100
Disc CF -1000
Cum NCF
1.1
100
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The discounted payback technique
Example:
Calculate the discounted payback period for the following project
(discounting cash flows at a required rate of return of 10%).
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Project A -1000 100 200 800 100 100 100
Disc CF -1000
= 91
Cum NCF
1.1
100
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The discounted payback technique
Example:
Calculate the discounted payback period for the following project
(discounting cash flows at a required rate of return of 10%).
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Project A -1000 100 200 800 100 100 100
Disc CF -1000
= 91
Cum NCF
1.1
100 2
1.1
200
Investment Evaluation Techniques
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The discounted payback technique
Example:
Calculate the discounted payback period for the following project
(discounting cash flows at a required rate of return of 10%).
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Project A -1000 100 200 800 100 100 100
Disc CF -1000
= 91
= 165
Cum NCF
1.1
100 2
1.1
200
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The discounted payback technique
Example:
Calculate the discounted payback period for the following project
(discounting cash flows at a required rate of return of 10%).
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Project A -1000 100 200 800 100 100 100
Disc CF -1000
= 91
= 165
= 601
= 68
= 62
=56
Cum NCF
1.1
100 2
1.1
200 3
1.1
800 4
1.1
100 5
1.1
100 6
1.1
100
Investment Evaluation Techniques
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The discounted payback technique
Example:
Calculate the discounted payback period for the following project
(discounting cash flows at a required rate of return of 10%).
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6
Project A -1000 100 200 800 100 100 100
Disc CF -1000
= 91
= 165
= 601
= 68
= 62
=56
Cum NCF -909
1.1
100 2
1.1
200 3
1.1
800 4
1.1
100 5
1.1
100 6
1.1
100
Investment Evaluation Techniques
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The discounted payback technique
Example:
Calculate the discounted payback period for the following project
(discounting cash flows at a required rate of return of 10%).
Year 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 DPB
Project A -1000 100 200 800 100 100 100
Disc CF -1000
= 91
= 165
= 601
= 68
= 62
=56
Cum NCF -909 -744 -143 -74 -12 44 5.22 yrs
years22.5 56
12 5
A Payb ackDisc
1.1
100 2
1.1
200 3
1.1
800 4
1.1
100 5
1.1
100 6
1.1
100
Investment Evaluation Techniques
Decision Criteria Test – Discounted Payback
• Does the discounted payback rule account for the time value of money?
• Does the discounted payback rule account for the risk of the cash flows?
• Does the discounted payback rule provide an indication about the increase in value?
• Should we consider the discounted payback rule for our primary decision rule?
Investment Evaluation Techniques
Evaluation of Discounted Payback
Advantages
- Includes time value of money
- Easy to understand
- Does not accept negative NPV
investments
Disadvantages
- May reject positive NPV investments
- Arbitrary determination of acceptable
payback period
- Ignores cash flows beyond the cut-off
date
- Biased against long-term investments.
Investment Evaluation Techniques
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The ARR is the percentage return on invested physical capital, and is based on accounting income and historical cost asset figures
The ARR is given by:
Average Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)
The ARR is compared with a predetermined ARR target, or “cut- off” rate, to determine whether to proceed with the project
capital invested average
income average ARR
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There are four stages in calculating the ARR: Step 1:The average income over the life of the asset is estimated (Note that
“income” takes into account not only cash but non-cash items such as depreciation
Step 2: The average net investment (after depreciation) is estimated
Step 3: The ARR is found using the equation
Step 4: If the ARR is greater than target return, the project should be accepted
Average Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)
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Average Accounting Rate of Return (ARR) Example: Step 1
Calculate the ARR for a 2-
year project involving a
machine that costs $100m
and will yield cash flows of
$53m & $65m in years 1 &
2.
The machine is to be
depreciated on a straight-
line basis, and the
corporate tax rate is 30%.
Calculate average net income
Year 1 2
Cash flow
Less depreciation
Taxable income
Less tax (30%)
Net income
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Average Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)
Example: Step 1
Calculate the ARR for a 2-
year project involving a
machine that costs $100m
and will yield cash flows
of $53m & $65m in years
1 & 2.
The machine is to be
depreciated on a straight-
line basis, and the
corporate tax rate is 30%.
Calculate average net income
Year 1 2
Cash flow 53 65
Less depreciation
Taxable income
Less tax (30%)
Net income
Investment Evaluation Techniques
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Average Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)
Example: Step 1
Calculate the ARR for a 2-
year project involving a
machine that costs $100m
and will yield cash flows
of $53m & $65m in years
1 & 2.
The machine is to be
depreciated on a straight-
line basis, and the
corporate tax rate is 30%.
Calculate average net income
Year 1 2
Cash flow 53 65
Less depreciation 50 50
Taxable income
Less tax (30%)
Net income
Investment Evaluation Techniques
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Average Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)
Example: Step 1
Calculate the ARR for a 2-
year project involving a
machine that costs $100m
and will yield cash flows
of $53m & $65m in years
1 & 2.
The machine is to be
depreciated on a straight-
line basis, and the
corporate tax rate is 30%.
Calculate average net income
Year 1 2
Cash flow 53 65
Less depreciation 50 50
Taxable income 3 15
Less tax (30%)
Net income
Investment Evaluation Techniques
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Average Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)
Example: Step 1
Calculate the ARR for a 2-
year project involving a
machine that costs $100m
and will yield cash flows
of $53m & $65m in years
1 & 2.
The machine is to be
depreciated on a straight-
line basis, and the
corporate tax rate is 30%.
Calculate average net income
Year 1 2
Cash flow 53 65
Less depreciation 50 50
Taxable income 3 15
Less tax (30%) 1 5
Net income
Investment Evaluation Techniques
52
Average Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)
Example: Step 1
Calculate the ARR for a 2-
year project involving a
machine that costs $100m
and will yield cash flows
of $53m & $65m in years
1 & 2.
The machine is to be
depreciated on a straight-
line basis, and the
corporate tax rate is 30%.
Calculate average net income
Year 1 2
Cash flow 53 65
Less depreciation 50 50
Taxable income 3 15
Less tax (30%) 1 5
Net income 2 10
Investment Evaluation Techniques
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Average Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)
Example: Step 1
Calculate the ARR for a 2-
year project involving a
machine that costs $100m
and will yield cash flows
of $53m & $65m in years
1 & 2.
The machine is to be
depreciated on a straight-
line basis, and the
corporate tax rate is 30%.
Calculate average net income
Year 1 2
Cash flow 53 65
Less depreciation 50 50
Taxable income 3 15
Less tax (30%) 1 5
Net income 2 10
Average = (2 + 10) / 2 = 6
Investment Evaluation Techniques
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Average Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)
Example: Step 2
Calculate the ARR for a 2-
year project involving a
machine that costs $100m
and will yield cash flows
of $53m & $65m in years
1 & 2.
The machine is to be
depreciated on a straight-
line basis, and the
corporate tax rate is 30%.
Calculate average investment
Year 0 1 2
Machine cost
Less accum.
depreciation
Investment
Investment Evaluation Techniques
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Average Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)
Example: Step 2
Calculate the ARR for a 2-
year project involving a
machine that costs $100m
and will yield cash flows
of $53m & $65m in years
1 & 2.
The machine is to be
depreciated on a straight-
line basis, and the
corporate tax rate is 30%.
Calculate average investment
Year 0 1 2
Machine cost 100 100 100
Less accum.
depreciation
Investment
Investment Evaluation Techniques
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Average Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)
Example: Step 2
Calculate the ARR for a 2-
year project involving a
machine that costs $100m
and will yield cash flows
of $53m & $65m in years
1 & 2.
The machine is to be
depreciated on a straight-
line basis, and the
corporate tax rate is 30%.
Calculate average investment
Year 0 1 2
Machine cost 100 100 100
Less accum.
depreciation
0
Investment
Investment Evaluation Techniques
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Average Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)
Example: Step 2
Calculate the ARR for a 2-
year project involving a
machine that costs $100m
and will yield cash flows
of $53m & $65m in years
1 & 2.
The machine is to be
depreciated on a straight-
line basis, and the
corporate tax rate is 30%.
Calculate average investment
Year 0 1 2
Machine cost 100 100 100
Less accum.
depreciation
0 50
Investment
Investment Evaluation Techniques
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Average Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)
Example: Step 2
Calculate the ARR for a 2-
year project involving a
machine that costs $100m
and will yield cash flows
of $53m & $65m in years
1 & 2.
The machine is to be
depreciated on a straight-
line basis, and the
corporate tax rate is 30%.
Calculate average investment
Year 0 1 2
Machine cost 100 100 100
Less accum.
depreciation
0 50 100
Investment
Investment Evaluation Techniques
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Average Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)
Example: Step 2
Calculate the ARR for a 2-
year project involving a
machine that costs $100m
and will yield cash flows
of $53m & $65m in years
1 & 2.
The machine is to be
depreciated on a straight-
line basis, and the
corporate tax rate is 30%.
Calculate average investment
Year 0 1 2
Machine cost 100 100 100
Less accum.
depreciation
0 50 100
Investment 100 50 0
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Average Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)
Example: Step 2
Calculate the ARR for a 2-
year project involving a
machine that costs $100m
and will yield cash flows
of $53m & $65m in years
1 & 2.
The machine is to be
depreciated on a straight-
line basis, and the
corporate tax rate is 30%.
Calculate average investment
Year 0 1 2
Machine cost 100 100 100
Less accum.
depreciation
0 50 100
Investment 100 50 0
Average investment =
(100 + 50 + 0) / 3 = 50
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Average Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)
Example: Step 3
Calculate the ARR for a 2-
year project involving a
machine that costs $100m
and will yield cash flows
of $53m & $65m in years
1 & 2.
The machine is to be
depreciated on a straight-
line basis, and the
corporate tax rate is 30%.
Calculate the ARR
Step 4
Compare the ARR to a target or
“cut-off” rate to accept or reject
Investment Evaluation Techniques
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Average Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)
Example: Step 3
Calculate the ARR for a 2-
year project involving a
machine that costs $100m
and will yield cash flows
of $53m & $65m in years
1 & 2.
The machine is to be
depreciated on a straight-
line basis, and the
corporate tax rate is 30%.
Calculate the ARR
Step 4
Compare the ARR to a target or
“cut-off” rate to accept or reject
%12 50
6
capital invested Avg
income Avg
Investment Evaluation Techniques
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Average Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)
Example: Step 3
Calculate the ARR for a 2-
year project involving a
machine that costs $100m
and will yield cash flows
of $53m & $65m in years
1 & 2.
The machine is to be
depreciated on a straight-
line basis, and the
corporate tax rate is 30%.
Calculate the ARR
Step 4
Compare the ARR to a target or
“cut-off” rate to accept or reject
%12 50
6
capital invested Avg
income Avg
Investment Evaluation Techniques
64
Average Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)
Example: Step 3
Calculate the ARR for a 2-
year project involving a
machine that costs $100m
and will yield cash flows
of $53m & $65m in years
1 & 2.
The machine is to be
depreciated on a straight-
line basis, and the
corporate tax rate is 30%.
Calculate the ARR
Step 4
Compare the ARR to a target or
“cut-off” rate to accept or reject
%12 50
6
capital invested Avg
income Avg
Investment Evaluation Techniques
65
The ARR technique has a number of disadvantages,
including the fact that it:
Is based on accounting figures, which are not necessarily related to
cash flows and are based on accounting techniques that may vary
from company to company
Ignores the time value of money
Requires an arbitrary target or “cut-off” rate, but there is little
theoretical or other guidance in setting an appropriate target ARR
Average Accounting Rate of Return (ARR)
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The IRR technique is also based on a DCF model, but focuses on the
rate of return in the DCF equation rather than the NPV
The IRR is defined as the discount rate that equates the present value
of a project’s cash inflows with the present value of its cash outflows
This is the equivalent of saying that the IRR is the discount rate at
which the NPV of the project is equal to 0
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
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Stated formally:
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
0
1
0 1
n t
t t
F CF
r
where:
Ft = cash flow generated by the project in year t
C0 = the cost of the project (initial cash flow, if any)
n = the life of the project in years
r = the internal rate of return on the project
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68
The unknown variable (r) can be solved using a financial calculator or
by trial-and-error
The decision rule is to accept a project if its IRR is greater than the
cost of capital and reject it if its IRR is less than the cost of capital
It is clear from a comparison of the NPV and IRR equations that these
methods use the same framework and inputs, so they should result in
the same accept/reject decision
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
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69
Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
Example:
Apply the IRR rule to a project that costs $100 million and yields
$106 million in one year when the opportunity cost of capital is
7%.
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Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
Example:
Apply the IRR rule to a project that costs $100 million and yields
$106 million in one year when the opportunity cost of capital is
7%.
0
1
0 1
106 0 100
1
6%
n t
t t
CF CF
irr
m m
r
r
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Internal Rate of Return (IRR)
Example:
Apply the IRR rule to a project that costs $100 million and yields
$106 million in one year when the opportunity cost of capital is