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Tennis great Andy Murray made 60% of his first serves in a recent season. When Murray made his first serve, he won 76% of the points. When Murray missed his first serve and had to serve again, he won only 54% of the points. Suppose you randomly choose a point on which Murray served. You get distracted before seeing his first serve but look up in time to see Murray win the point. What’s the probability that he missed his first serve?
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