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The Rise of the Rest ,FAREED ZAKARIA

Fareed Zakaria, author, political scientist, and magazine and television news commentator, was born and raised in Bombay, India, the son of politically progressive parents who were also practicing Muslims. (His father was a leading politician and his mother edited the Times of India.) Zakaria emigrated to the United States to attend Yale University, and received a Ph.D. in political science at Harvard University, where he studied under the influential international relations expert Samuel P. Huntington. At the age of twenty-eight, Zakaria accepted an offer to edit Foreign Affairs magazine. One of the first articles Zakaria accepted for publication was Huntington's controversial essay on the clash of civilizations (which Huntington later expanded into a book). Zakaria is the author of From Wealth to Power: The Unusual Origins of America's World Role (1998), The Future of Freedom: !/liberal Democracy at Home and Abroad (2004), and The Post­ American World (2008). He writes a regular column for Newsweek and appears frequently on television news shows as a foreign affairs analyst. In the following essay, published in the December I-December 15,2008, issue of New York Times Upfront (upfrontmagazine.com), Zakaria makes a provocative claim about the relationship of the United States to other emerging world powers in the new era of globalization.

Before Reading

Could the rise of such nations as China, Brazil, and India as surperpowers actually be beneficial for the future of the United States? Explain your position on this issue.

T he world's tallest building is now in Dubai. The largest publicly traded company is in China. The largest passenger airplane is built in Europe. The biggest movie industry is India's Bollywood, not Hollywood. And in the most recent Forbes rankings, only two of the world's 10 richest people are American.

Just 10 years ago, the United States-which for the last century has 2 been used to leading the world-would have topped all these lists. Of course, some of these lists are a bit silly, but they actually do reflect a seis­ mic shift in power and attitudes.

from THE POST-AMERICAN WORLD by Fareed Zakaria. Copyright © 2008 by Used by permission of W.W. Norton & Company, Inc.

Fareed Zakaria The Rise of the Rest 199

For the last 20 years, America's superpower status has been largely 3 unchallenged-something that hasn't happened since the Roman Empire dominated the known world 2,000 years ago.

But at the same time, the global economy has accelerated dramatically. 4 Many nations outside the industrialized West have been growing at rates that were once unthinkable. In fact, this is something much broader than the much-talked-about rise of China, or even Asia. It is the rise of the rest-the rest of the world.

Why is this happening? It's because globalization has truly taken hold: 5 More countries are making goods, and communications technology is leveling the playing field. Together, this has created huge opportunities for growth in many nations.

At the military and political level, the U.S. still remains supreme. But in 6 every other way-industrial, financial, social, cultural-the distribution of power is moving away from American dominance.

America's Perception

The post-American world is naturally an unsettling prospect for Americans, 7 but it shouldn't be. These changes are not about the decline of America, but rather about the rise of everyone else. It is the result of a series of positive trends that have created an international climate of unprecedented peace and prosperity-which in the long run will only benefit America.

But that's not the world that Americans perceive. We are told that 8 we live in dark, dangerous times. Terrorism, rogue states, nuclear pro­ liferation, financial panics, outsourcing, and illegal immigrants all loom large in the national discourse. But just how dangerous is today's world, really?

Researchers at the University of Maryland have found that global 9 violence is actually at its lowest levels since the 1950s. Harvard professor Steven Pinker concludes that we are probably living "in the most peaceful time of our species' existence."

Then why do we think we live in scary times? Part of the reason is that 10 as violence has been ebbing, information has been exploding. The last 20 years have produced an information revolution-24-hour news channels, cell phones, the Internet-that brings us news and, most crucially, images from around the world all the time.

Of course, the threats we face are real. Islamic jihadists, for example, 11 really do want to attack civilians everywhere. But it is increasingly clear that militants and suicide bombers make up a tiny portion of the world's 1.3 billion Muslims. They can do real damage, but the combined efforts of the world's governments have effectively put them on the run.

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200 Chapter 6 The Challenge of Globalization: What Are the Consequences?

Since 9/11, the main branch of Al Qaeda (the gang run by Osama bin 12 Laden) has not been able to launch a single major terror attack in the West or any Arab country. Of course, one day they will manage to strike again, "but the fact that they have been stymied for seven years indicates we need not despair.

We do need to out how to deal with rogue states like Iran, which 13 pose real threats. But look at them in context. The American economy is 68 times the size of Iran's. The U.S. military budget is 110 times bigger. None of the problems we face compare with the dangers posed by Nazi Germany in the first half of the 20th century or the Soviet Union in the second half. Those were great global powers bent on world domination.

Meanwhile, compare Russia and China with where they were 35 years 14 ago. Both (particularly Russia) were great threats, actively conspiring against the United States, arming guerrilla movements across the globe, funding insurgencies and civil wars. Now they are more integrated into the

economy and society than at any point in at least 100 years. They are neIther friends nor foes, cooperating with the United States and the West on some issues, obstructing on others.

Trade & Technology The Iraq War has produced deep, lasting chaos and dysfunction in that 15 country, and sent more than 2 million refugees into neighboring countries. But I've been struck by how little Iraq's troubles have destabilized the region. Everywhere you go, people angrily denounce American foreign policy, but most Middle Eastern countries are booming. Iraq's neighbors-Turkey, Jor-

and Saudi Arabia-are enjoying unprecedented prosperity. Across the globe there is enormous vitality. For the first time ever, most 16

countries around the world are practicing sensible economics-opening up their markets and embracing trade and technology. The results are stun­ ning. The share of people living on $1 a day has plummeted from 40 per­ cent in 1981 to 18 percent in 2004 and is projected to drop to 12 percent by 2015 (see graph on next page).

There remains real poverty in the world-most worryingly in 50 17 basket-case countries with a total of 1 billion people-but the overall trend has never been more encouraging.

The most immediate effect of global growth is the appearance of new 18 economic powerhouses on the scene like China, India, and Brazil. If these countries all feel that they have a stake in the existing global order. there will be less danger of war, depression, panics, and breakdowns.

Fareed Zakaria The Rise of the Rest 201

lESS GLOBAL POVERTY The percentage of the world's people

living on $1 a day is declining.

40%

35

30

25

20

15

10

5

o

SOURCE: THE POST-AMERICAN WORLD BY FAREEO ZAIWIIA

So America's chief priority should be to bring these rising nations into 19 the global system. To do that, the U,S. needs to make its own commitment to the system clear. Until now, the United States was so dominant that it was able to be the global rule-maker but not always play by the rules.

As economic fortunes rise, so does nationalism. Imagine that your 20 country has been poor and marginal for centuries. Finally, things turn around and it becomes a symbol of economic progress and success. You would be proud, and anxious that your people win respect throughout the world.

The United States, accustomed to leading the world, isn't used to deal- 21 ing with so many rising nations with strong, nationalistic viewpoints. It will take some getting used to. Our challenge is this: Whether the problem is a trade dispute or a human-rights tragedy like Darfur or climate change, the only solutions that will work are those involving many nations.

With the current global financial crisis and its origins in the U.S. 22 housing market, some may conclude that the U.S. has had its day. But the U.S. will not only weather the current financial storm; it's likely to come out on the other side more stable and secure. The American economy remains extremely dynamic and flexible. And the rise of developing economies like China, India, and Brazil-which are also feeling the heat of the global crisis-will continue to fuel global growth in the long run.

Over the last 20 years, America has benefited massively from unusually 23 robust growth, low unemployment and inflation, and received hundreds of billions of dollars in investment-much of it from rising powers like China. These are not signs of fundamental economic collapse.

1981 2004 2015 (PROJECTED)

202 Chapter 6 The Challenge of Globalization: What Are the Consequences?

The United States is currently ranked as the globe's most competitive 24 economy by the World Economic Forum. It remains dominant in many industries of the future like nanotechnology, biotechnology, and dozens of "smaller high-tech fields. Its universities are the finest in the world.

There's been a lot of discussion about a recent statistic that in 2004, 25 950,000 engineers graduated in China and India, while only 70,000 gradu­ ated in the U.S. But those numbers are wildly off the mark. If you exclude the car mechanics and repairmen-who are all counted as engineers in Chinese and Indian statistics-it turns out, the United States trains more engineers per capita than either of the Asian giants.

The real issue is that most of these American engineers are immigrants. 26 Foreign students and immigrants account for almost 50 percent of all sci­ ence researchers in the United States. In 2006, they received 40 percent of all Ph.D.'s.

When these graduates settle in the U.S., they create economic oppor- 27 tunity. Half of all Silicon Valley start-ups have one founder who is an immigrant or first-generation American (see box, below). The potential for a new burst of American productivity depends not on our educa­ tion system or R&D spending, but on our immigration policies. If these people are allowed to come to the U.S. and then encouraged to stay, then innovation will happen here. If they leave, they'll take it with them.

America's Great Strength

This openness is America's great strength. The U.S. remains the most open, 28 flexible society in the world, able to absorb other people, cultures, ideas, goods, and services.

The rise of the rest of the world is one of the most thrilling stories in 29 history. Billions of people are escaping from poverty. The world will be enriched as they become consumers, producers, inventors, thinkers, dream­ ers, and doers.

This is all happening because of American ideas and actions. For 60 30 years, the United States has pushed countries to open their markets, free up their politics, and embrace trade and technology. American diplomats, business people, and intellectuals have urged people in distant lands to be unafraid of change, to join the advanced world, to learn the secrets of our success.

Yet just as they are beginning to do so, Americans are becoming suspi- 31 clous of trade, openness, immigration, and investment-because now it's not Americans going abroad, but foreigners coming to America.

Fareed Zakaria The Rise of the Rest 203

Generations from now, when historians write about these times, they 32 might note that by the turn of the 21st century, the United States had suc­ ceeded in its great, historical mission-globalizing the world. We don't want them to write that along the way, we forgot to globalize ourselves.

Thinking About the Essay

1. What is Zakaria's purpose in writing this essay? For example, does he want to argue a position, educate readers, persuade his audience to accept a baSic premise or assumption, or some combination of these? Does the title provide any clue to the writer's purpose?

2. Why does Zakaria withhold his thesis or claim until the last paragraph in the first sectio'n of his essay? What effect does he achieve?

3. How does the organization of Zakaria's essay contribute to the force of his writing? Cite at le,ast two examples to support your response.

4. What types of evidence and comparative information does Zakaria provide to support his major points?

5. Explain the overall tone that Zakaria establishes in this essay, pOinting to specific words, phrases, and sentences that illuminate the writer's position.

Responding in Writing

6. USing Zakaria's essay as a springboard, write your own essay titled "The Rise of the Rest" in which you address the issue of America's role in the age of globalization.

7. Write a comparative essay focusing on the relationship between the United States and one other nation in this globalized world.

8. In an argumentative essay, respond to the propOSition that the United States is destined to find its power reduced because of the forces of globalization.

Networking

9. In groups of three or four, discuss the meaning and implication of Zakaria's phrase, the "post-American world." What additional featUres can you add to the content of Zakaria's essay? Provide a summary of your discussion to class members.

10. Conduct online research to locate two articles on globalization that offer optimistic assessments of this phenomenon and two other essays that offer antiglobalization critiques. Provide a synopsis of your findings for class members.