Simon decision making model ppt

PPT ON Identify An Organizational Challenge Facing Your Own Public Agency (

Ø Please don’t make the slide so crowded with long sentences

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1) Describe the agency, organizational structure, mission, vision, goals, objectives, outcomes and annual operating budget.

2.Offer a brief assessment on each of the following topics (make sure you are integrating course concepts, theories, and ideas):

a) What is the decision-making structure at the agency?

b) Describe the motivation and creativity at the agency.

c) How does the agency communicate internally and externally?

d) Discuss how the organization manages stress and change.

3) Identify one or more problems or challenges facing the organization that you as a leader are going to focus on (make sure you are integrating course concepts, theories, and ideas):

a) Discuss how that problem(s) or challenge (s) is impacting the organization.

b) Using existing literature, including assigned readings, power points, and online exercises, offer very clear policy recommendations on how this challenge needs to be resolved.

c) Conclude with an overview of the benefits the organization will experience if the matter is addressed, and the consequences if the challenge is not resolved.

Scholarly Sources:

· Scholarly sources include books and scholarly peer-reviewed articles.

· Websites such as Wikipedia or History.com are not scholarly sources, nor are

they acceptable for academic work at this level.

· Newspaper and magazine articles can be used to supplement your scholarly

sources.

· Governmental reports and non-governmental reports can be used but should

not make up the majority of your scholarly sources.

Chapter 7
Decision Making

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What Chapter 7 Does (1/2)

Reviews the major decision making models
Rational
Incremental
Aggregative methods
Garbage can
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What Chapter 7 Does

Examines 3 elements of decision making within these models
Search for Alternatives
Analysis of alternatives
Choice criteria
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Rational Decision Making Process

Involves framing an issue or problem, identifying alternative courses of action, analyzing plausible alternatives based on subjective and objective criteria, and selecting among those alternatives

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Rational Decision Making
“The task of administration is…to design the environment…as close as practicable to rationality”

Herbert Simon

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Rational Decision Making

Characterized by use of steps in which end goal is a given
Result is optimal solution
Promotes the value of efficiency above all other values
Instrumental rationality
Closely associated w/ cost-benefit analysis
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Rational Decision Making

Assessment of decision
Pareto criterion: a change should be made if at least one person benefits and no person is made worse off
Kaldor-Hicks: if decision makes one group better off, then compensate losers
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Policy Making using Incrementalsim

Process of successive approximations to some desired objectives in which what is desired itself continues to change under reconsideration (Lindblom)

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Incrementalism

Bargaining process and not analytical
Small changes are made at the margins
favors the status quo
Explanation of what actually happens
Rational: what should happen
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Charles Lindblom

Noted that there were no clear value preferences
May prefer one program/proposal over another
Can be disagreement over the primary values and still agreement on the ends
Test of a good policy is agreement
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Incrementalism

Policy is not made once and for all, it is made and remade endlessly
Lindblom was not suggesting that incrementalism was the way to make decisions;
it is how decisions are made
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Satisficing

Agree on a goal

Agreement on a goal for “improvement”

Alternative that meets or exceeds the decision-maker’s expectations or demands will be chosen

March and Simon

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Mixed scanning
Quick review of alternatives
Detailed analysis of most promising options
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Aggregative methods

Tools v forms of decision-making
Level of decision-making affects choice of tools
Leader
High level administrator
Supervisor
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Aggregative methods

Tools value participation
NGT
Delphi
Strategic Planning
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Decision Support Techniques and Tools

Decision support mechanisms signal areas to examine more closely
Examples:
Policy analysis
Budget development
Quality management
Business process reengineering
Organizational development
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Garbage Can (March & Olsen)

Description of what actually happens in decisionmaking
not an expression of how policies should be made
Doesn’t mean no decisions are made or decisions are made by happenstance
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Garbage Can (March & Olsen)

4 factors have to come together
Opportunity has to be available to solve a problem

Problems have to be recognized

Solutions have to be recognized

Participants have to bring forward a problem w/ a solution

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Nondecisons

Based on elitist theory
Participants who control the agenda control what problems are examined and what decisions are made
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Effect of Culture

“Organization is now seen to reside rituals, and beliefs that sustain orgz as socially constructed realities”

Affects the way the individuals operate the decision process

Various methods discussed are acceptable

Gareth Morgan

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Methods of Decision making

Which method places the most emphasis on
Search
Analysis
Choice
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Search

The search process refers to staff activities, at all levels of the org.
Identify ways to improve, policies and operations
Expect that the search process would be most exhaustive rationalist method
Incremental method’s search process is limited and unsystematic
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Analysis

Concerned with examining alternatives
Feasibility, cost, beneficiaries, alternatives
Feasibility is both political and technological
Rational method uses policy analysis techniques
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Choice

Choice criterion is the basis upon which one alternative is selected over another
The formal criterion of the rational-policy analysis is the Kaldor-Hicks criterion
Total social benefits exceed total social costs
Incremental methods select alternatives based on the number of supporters:
Large enough to fulfil system’s voting requirements
Best alternative gains support needed for adoption
Aggregative methods use majority rule as best solution, and tend to avoid political criteria
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Choice

Garbage can model reflects:
Decisions or non-decisions not necessarily expected by participants
Not necessarily based on goals
Ability to theorize and interpret events greater than capacity to make goal oriented decisions
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Elements of Decision Process

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Action

Decision-making doesn’t end until the decision has been implemented
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Decision Making

Basic Process

= Search + Analysis + Choice

Expanded Formula

= Culture + Trigger + Search + Analysis + Choice + Action + Evaluation

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Table top exercise

What to do with the Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory?
If you were the Secretary of Energy, how would you go about making a decision related to this issue? Based on the decision models discussed, which of them appear to be useful in describing what must be done? Which not useful?